The Election: Day 34 (New Year's Day Gift for Conservatives)

New Ipsos Reid poll, reported tonight by Global National, confirms Conservatives are ahead nationally and in Ontario.

According to the survey, if a federal election were held tomorrow, 33 percent would cast their ballot in support of the Conservatives, up 1 point from last week.

32 percent would vote for the Liberals, down 1 point

18 per cent would vote for the NDP, that's up 2 percent.

The Green Party remains unchanged at 5 percent.

Perhaps of greatest interest are the results for Ontario which show the Conservatives at 38%, the Liberals at 36% and the NDP at 19%

Currently four in ten Canadians agree with the statement “I'd be comfortable voting for Stephen Harper and the Conservatives to form the government in the next election because we'll probably have another minority which will keep them in check” - 44 percent of Ontarians agree with this statement.

Just one-third of Canadians now agree with the statement “I'd be comfortable voting for Paul Martin and the Liberals in the next election because they will govern very differently next time due to the lessons they learned from the Gomery Inquiry”

That's down 7 percent from a week ago, when Paul Martin garnered more support.

As Harper and the Conservatives continue to build positive momentum nationally (up 8 points), momentum for Paul Martin and the Liberals has dropped substantially (down 14 points) and is now strongly negative nationally (down 35 points).


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The latest Ipsos Reid poll, showing Conservatives ahead of the Liberals both nationally and in Ontario, is sad news for the Liberals. The Liberals have miscalculated on the income trust "scandal". They are going to be hit hard on the integrity issue in the next three weeks. The corruption baggage will cost them the election. Look for the Opposition leaders to be gunning for Martin in the next set of debates.

Simply put, they should have pulled Goodale immediately when the RCMP criminal investigation became public. Quick action might have limited the damage. Now they're stuck with toughing it out and taking repeated hits on the integrity issue.

http://cardinal47.blogspot.com/

The Election: Day 33 (Liberal collapse confirmed)

The reports today on the SES poll indicate that Martin's approval rating dropped 18 points in 24 hours. This means he's in serious trouble in terms of turning the campaign around. Now all the corrurption baggage is going to come back to haunt him. The bottom line is that the Liberals have not yet been punished by the voters for their earlier misdeeds. That reckoning will probably occur on January 23.

The Liberal decision not to have Goodale step aside, coupled with the announcement of the RCMP criminal investigation, has had immediate dramatic negative effects for the Liberals. The SES poll indicated a statistical tie between the Liberals and the Conservatives and a precipitous drop in Martin's personal approval rating of 18 points in 24 hours.

A new Decima poll released today confirms that the Liberals and Conservatives are tied as they enter the last phase of the campaign.

The survey by Decima Research pegs Liberal support at 32 per cent of those who are likely to vote, compared to 30 per cent who say they intend to back the Conservatives. Given the poll's margin of error of 3.1 percentage points, the two parties are in a statistical dead heat.

New Democrats are backed by 18 per cent of the 1,020 respondents to a telephone survey between Dec. 29 and Dec. 30, while 14 per cent say they will vote for the Bloc Quebecois.

The biggest regional shift is being felt in Ontario, where the Liberals' once-commanding lead has shrunk to just four percentage points over the Conservatives at 40-36.

A Conservative minority will put pressure on Martin to leave. His departure is necessary in order for the Liberal party to heal and rebuild itself. Meanwhile the minority status will prevent the Conservatives from implementing radical changes to social programs. This should be the preferred outcome of all who are Liberal at heart but fed up with the shenanigans of the current regime.

The Bombshell (continued)

Martin is getting dodgy on the issue as he tends to do when the pressure builds. See
CBC

"Martin said he and some other people in the Prime Minister's Office had advance knowledge of a government decision on income trusts before it was made public, something he says isn't out of the ordinary.

"I knew and I'm one of them. The fact is, that the people who would be on a need-to-know basis would have that information," said Martin.

"When asked if the alleged leak could have come from the PMO, the prime minister didn't give a direct answer.

"The fact is we are dealing with opposition allegations. And that's all we are dealing with. Opposition allegations during an election campaign," said Martin. "The RCMP obviously have a responsibility to follow up on matters such as this. That's their job."

"Martin said he believes the spike in trading is simply a reflection of how markets operate.

"There are a lot of people who are essentially ... saying out there that what you're dealing with is ... simply the way that ... markets function," said the prime minister.

Does Martin really expect us to believe that "the spike in trading is simply a reflection of how markets operate"??? Have you looked at the charts of trading that afternoon? "simply the way that ... markets function" Who comes up with these pathetic lines for him???

For those who are still unclear on what appears to have happened, the CBC has a little primer on Income Trusts on its website .

Here's an extract:

"What suggests that an advance leak of Goodale's announcement may have taken place?

Goodale did not make his announcement public until after 5 p.m. on Nov. 23, well after the stock markets had closed. But earlier in the day, especially during the last two hours of the trading day, there were noticeable spikes in the trading volumes and share prices of many income trusts and dividend-paying stocks – sometimes triple their normal volumes. These would be the kind of securities that would be expected to benefit from the type of announcement Goodale made later that day. Of the 10 most actively traded stocks on Nov. 23, eight were income trusts, trust candidates, or dividend-paying stocks. All eight went up between 5 and 7 per cent that day.

Is there general agreement that a leak did, in fact, take place?

The opposition parties and some market watchers looked at the trading patterns and saw something that suggested that some people knew something in advance. Forensic accountant Al Rosen, for instance, said ,"The volumes and prices are just screaming at you to say just a minute, someone knew more than the ordinary little bit of stuff." How big was the scream? One example: shares of BCE, which pays a rich dividend, had their biggest advance in four years on Nov. 23.

Christopher Thomas, whose company Measured Markets provides early warnings of unusual stock movements, agreed that the signals were flashing that day. "Statistically, these stocks were behaving as though something unusual was going on which the world at large was probably not aware of." "

My conclusion:

Why should Goodale resign? Because as Minister he was responsible for ensuring the security of tax sensitive policy/program changes until they were made public so that no one benefitted unfairly through advance (insider) knowledge. Some time between when the policy was scrambled together on the evening of November 22 and the time of the Minister's announcement it appears that someone leaked details of the Minister's pending announcement. The RCMP does not launch a criminal investigation unless it has reason to believe something illegal occurred. Does that mean Goodale himself personally did anything wrong? No. Does it mean he should resign? Yes, under the doctrine of Ministerial responsiblity.

The Election: Day 32 (The Bombshell)

Yesterday I posted the following question on nodice.ca

Should Ralph Goodale resign pending the results of the criminal investigation? Some precedents for Ministerial resignations can be found at http://david-akin.electionblog.ctv.ca/default.asp?item=123896

There have been numerous responses with insults traded back and forth betwenn Liberal and Conservative loyalists. It is interesting to compare these posts with the positions taken by the party leaders.

Yesterday Martin said Goodale will not step down.

Jack Layton said that Goodale's decision not to step aside speaks to his judgment:
"It is blindingly obvious, based on ample precedent, that when a minister's department is under criminal investigation ... the minister should step aside," said Layton.

In an interesting twist, Stephen Harper said that it doesn't matter whether the finance minister steps down during the probe, because the issue goes beyond whether Goodale was involved.

The latest incident follows the pattern of Liberal corruption and entitlement, he said.

"It's the final nail," Harper said. "Ralph Goodale can stay on and run around in his limousine until Jan. 23. What's important is that he and his government are run out of office. This government has not earned the benefit of the doubt."

Interesting, eh? Last night I posed the question: Is this a tempest in a teapot, or could it be the "tipping point" of the campaign?

With all the insults back and forth many bloggers were missing the big picture. The Liberal campaign is collapsing.

Bourque reports this morning on the latest CPAC/SES tracking. As you know until now the CPAC/SES tracking has shown a significant lead for the Liberals. Well,look at these results:


"CPAC-SES Dec 23-28-29: Lib 35% CP 34% NDP 14% BQ 13% GP 5%
CPAC-SES: LIB 35 % CON 34 %
Call it Paul Martin's "Unlucky 13". Bourque has learned that the consistent bombshell reports about negative Liberal Party doings (the dog doo-doo's, the popcorn, the RCMP criminal investigations, etc), most of which are consistenly first reported to the nation on this website, is having a devastating impact on the Liberal Party, both in terms of insider morale and in current polling standings. Senior Paul Martin Liberals, the usual suspects, are now second-guessing their overall election campaign tactics and are also second-guessing each other, a tragic and stunning turn of events for a majestic party that has held government for most of the past 13 years. According to insiders well-placed to understand the nuances within Martin's braintrust, Bourque has also learned that key campaign personnel are at risk of being replaced in an increasingly desperate attempt to maintain control of the public agenda, and more importantly, the key messaging that is driving this election, something that has eluded Team Martin since Day One of this election. Now, according to SES, "The announcement of a RCMP criminal investigation of a possible tax leak from Finance Minister Ralph Goodale's office has initially had an impact on the political environment. CPAC-SES tracking has the Liberals and the Conservatives statistically tied for the first time in the campaign. Nationally, the Liberals have 35%, the Conservatives 34%, the NDP 14%, the BQ 13% and the Green Party 5%. Overnight, the CPAC-SES one day measure on trust and vision for Canada has realised a noticeable drop for Paul Martin."

I asked last night whether this incident would be a "tempest in a teapot, or could it be the tipping point of the campaign?" These results certainly suggest that it may well be the tilting point that sees Martin go down to defeat on January 23.

The Election: Day 30

As Stephen Harper resumed campaigning over the past two days in British Columbia with major announcements pertaining to his defence platform and promises to increase the military presence in B.C., a couple of events occurred elsewhere which, if they snowball, could begin the unravelling of the Liberal campaign.

The first, reported in the previous posting on this blog, concerned the resignation of the executive vice president of the Liberal Party of Canada (Ontario). Mike Klander stepped aside after bloggers fanned controversy over tasteless remarks on Klander's blog about NDP candidate Olivia Chow.

Then this afternoon a letter from RCMP Commissioner Guiliano Zaccardelli to NDP finance critic Judy Wasylycia-Leis confirmed that the RCMP has launched a criminal investigation into the release of information by the Department of Finance, related to a government announcement on taxation of income trusts. Earlier information posted on various blogs and carried in the mainstream media had indicated that information about the Finance Minister's pending announcement that income trusts would not be taxed and certain dividends given favourable tax treatment had been leaked to insiders who drove up trading in these stocks earlier that day. There was every indication that some individuals had profited substantially as a result of leaks from the Minister's office or the Department of Finance.

Earlier when these allegations surfaced the government had dismissed them as baseless. Today's announcement by the RCMP Commissioner that a criminal investigation is being launched led to renewed calls for Minister Goodale to step down pending the results of the investigation. In an interview with Peter Mansbridge on the National, Ralph Goodale denied any wrongdoing and rejected calls for his resignation. Despite persistent questioning by Mansbridge on why Goodale would not follow precedent and step aside while the investigation is underway, Goodale stuck to the line that the RCMP "have said they are looking into this matter because of the seriousness of the allegation. They have, at the same time, said they have no information, no evidence of any wrongdoing on the part of anyone - most particularly on my part - and quite frankly if I were to resign under those circumstances I believe I would only feed allegations that are out there in the context of a very political situation."

The NDP and Conservative Leader Harper have both called for Goodale's resignation. Already comparisons are being made to ADSCAM. The RCMP investigation could not have come at a worse time for the Liberals. These new allegations, which have warranted a criminal investigation, set the scene for a renewed focus on the Quebec advertising scandal as the campaign enters the second phase post-Xmas.

Will this derail the Liberal plans for the second phase of the campaign? Will the Opposition parties be able to build on this to seize the momentum in the days ahead? Stay tuned.

The Mike Klander fiasco

Thanks to Pierre Bourque's website for drawing our attention to the mad musings by Mike Klander, Executive Vice President of the federal Liberals in Ontario. The details of Klander's nutty bloggings are available here on Angry in the Great White North's site. Worth a read just to confirm how extreme some of the so-called prominent liberals are.

Additional details can be found on Stephen Taylor's blog . Taylor, not given to hyperbole, headlines his story thus:

"Bigger than beer and popcorn? You bet. This should sink the Liberals"

Canoe News reports tonight that Klander has resigned from his position of Executive Vice President Of the Liberal Party of Canada (Ontario):

Liberal exec resigns after comparing NDP's Olivia Chow to a dog on his blog

By TARA BRAUTIGAM

TORONTO (CP) - A high-ranking official within the Liberal Party of Canada resigned Monday after he made disparaging comments on his blog about NDP Leader Jack Layton and his wife, NDP candidate Olivia Chow.

Mike Klander, executive vice-president of the federal Liberal party's Ontario wing, stepped down after photographs of Chow, NDP candidate for the Toronto riding of Trinity-Spadina, and a chow chow dog were posted on his blog dated Dec. 9 under the heading Separated at Birth.

The blog also contained an offensive reference to Layton.

The Election: Day 26

With the leaders having retired from the field of battle to buy presents and eat Xmas turkey, I had not intended to post on the election today. However, the conflicting headlines in national newpapers reporting on duelling polls prompted me to comment on these polls.

Here are the headlines:

Tories neck and neck with Liberals, poll says (Post)

Tory campaign failing to gain traction with voters, poll (Globe)

Liberals gain some ground (Globe)

Tories recover in polls; stage set for tight race (Citizen)


The National Post/Ottawa Citizen stories are reporting on a nationwide survey by Ipsos Reid conducted for CanWest newspapers and Global National this week. According to Ipsos Reid, the nearly month-old federal election campaign has tightened into a close race between the Liberals and Tories and would likely produce a minority Conservative government if the vote was held now. It shows that Stephen Harper's Tories, after dropping in public favour during the early days of the campaign, have recovered their footing and are now neck-and-neck with Paul Martin's Liberals nationally. Moreover, because the Tories have turned the vote-rich Ontario battleground into a draw with the Liberals, Ipsos Reid says a Tory victory "would be the probable outcome" if voters went to the polls today.

Ipsos Reid president Darrell Bricker cautioned yesterday that the electorate is very volatile and said:

"It's going to go right down to the wire, just like the last time," he said.

According to this poll, the Liberals have the support of 33 per cent of decided voters, while the Conservatives stand at 32 per cent -- a statistical tie. Among the other parties, Jack Layton's NDP is supported by 16 per cent of voters, Gilles Duceppe's Bloc Quebecois is at 13 per cent, and Jim Harris's Green party is at five per cent. Among all Canadians, 12 per cent are undecided or refused to say who they would vote for.

The rise in Tory fortunes has been most evident in Ontario, where they are supported by 38 per cent of voters (up from 28 per cent in mid-December). The Liberals have dropped from 47 per cent to 40 per cent in the province.

In B.C., however, the Liberals are gaining -- rising from 33 per cent to 40 per cent. They have won most of those intended votes from the Green party (down to five per cent from eight per cent) and from the Tories (down from 33 per cent to 30 per cent.)

Before drinking a toast to these results, however, Stephen Harper and his colleagues should take a look at the latest Strategic Counsel poll which accounts for the headline in the Globe and Mail. The survey found that 36 per cent of voters prefer the Liberals, up from 33 per cent Thursday, compared to 29 per cent for the Conservatives, who are down one point. The NDP is at 17 per cent -- down one -- while the Bloc Québécois has also dropped a point to 13 per cent. The Globe opined that Stephen Harper's policy-heavy election campaign is no better at capturing voters' imaginations than the Liberal effort.

According to The Strategic Counsel survey, 25 per cent of Canadians say the Liberals are running the best campaign, up six percentage points from Dec. 5-6. By contrast, 23 per cent think the Tories have the best campaign, down from 26 per cent, while 16 per cent of Canadians think the NDP is making the best effort, up two points.

The Ottawa Citizen story on the Ipsos Reid poll is available at the Citizen. The Globe story on the Strategic Counsel poll is available at the Globe.

The Election: Day 25

It appears that the party leaders will be laying down their arms until January 2, with the exception of occasional local appearances next week. We can then expect campaigning to resume with a vengeance. Pundits speculate about the campaign moving into a negative phase after the relatively civil first phase.

Yesterday I mentioned the preview of probable Liberal attacks available at blogger Stephen Taylor's site. Today this burst over the mainstream media, with the Liberals claiming that the material was intended for "internal use" by Liberal candidates. .

One of the storyboards showed a photo of Harper whispering to Duceppe under a headline of Harper-Duceppe coalition. Apparently the photo in question was taken during the Holocaust memorial last spring on Parliament Hill. The event was also attended by Liberal Leader Paul Martin and NDP Leader Jack Layton.

Harper expressed contempt for any plan to use the photos.

"I think it's beyond tasteless. You know, all party leaders attended the Holocaust memorial," Harper said Friday. "This is a pretty solemn event with Holocaust survivors, and to use that photo to imply that Mr. Duceppe and I would share some kind of agenda other than obviously opposing the Holocaust I think is disgraceful."

Harper denied any plan to form a coalition with the Bloc in a new Parliament. He said the two parties don't share the same motives.

"We may co-operate on the odd issue, but even there we're not naive," he said. "We understand that, even when the Bloc agrees with us, their motives are very different."

Harper said forming a coalition is unrealistic, and that he would govern on an issue-by-issue basis, co-operating with "individuals or parties that are absolutely committed to the unity of the country."

Meanwhile Liberal leader Paul Martin was pledging cooperation with provinces under the banner of "robust federalism". He promised closer co-operation with the provinces in a number of areas, including post-secondary education and training and international negotiations.

He described "robust federalism''as working together. Martin was responding to a letter from Premier Ralph Klein to the three main party leaders earlier this week on behalf of his fellow premiers, asking the Liberals, Conservatives and NDP where they stand on five questions. The topics were education and training, transportation, international relations, trade relations and fiscal balance.

Chantal Hebert in today's feature article does an excellent job of analyzing the election to date. After categorizing the current Conservative campaign as more "progressive" than "conservative", she summarizes the current state of the Liberals thus:

"It is because they have failed to keep up with the times that the federal Liberals are no longer holding their own in Quebec. In this campaign, they are fighting the last war and shooting themselves in the foot almost daily in the process.

"Two decades after patriation of the Constitution, the federal Liberal party is a spent force in Quebec. The days when it competed fiercely with the sovereignist movement for the best and brightest of Quebecers are behind it.

"And that means that, in the not-so-distant future, Canadians will have to tap other sources than the dried-out Quebec reservoir for national leadership."

Ouch! That's telling it like it is. While Jack Layton came from behind in the English debate to sharply improve his personal image with Canadian voters, Stephen Harper has accomplished his objective for the first phase of the campaign. He has advanced solid policy proposals on a wide spectrum of issues. He has waged a positive "Here's why you should vote for us" campaign and refrained from the temptation to fall into the trap of waging solely a negative campaign on the Liberal corruption issue. Meanwhile Paul Martin has been floundering. The Liberal campaign has been lacklustre. Even though the Liberals still lead slightly in the polls, the Liberals and Conservatives are tied outside Quebec and in Quebec the Liberals face the further loss of a possible ten seats or more to the Bloc.

All of this means that the Liberal campaign will likely turn increasingly dirty in January as they attempt to replay the 2004 election by demonizing Harper. But this time Harper has laid a solid policy foundation and it will not be so easy for the Liberals this time. And Harper still has the card of Gomery and Liberal corruption up his sleeve to play when the situation demands it.

If I were Paul Martin, I would be passing a restless Christmas as I pondered the probability of at best a reduced Liberal minority come January 23 and quite possibly a Conservative minority government.

The Election: Day 24

Stephen Harper chose to end the pre-Christmas campaign phase with a major announcement on positioning Canada to assert its sovereignty in the Arctic. The announcement was linked to recent stories that American submarines have been venturing into Canadian waters without Ottawa's permission. Harper said protecting and defending national sovereignty is Ottawa's most important duty, and his government would invest in the military to ensure that would happen.

"Paul Martin talks eloquently about defending national sovereignty, but the reality hasn't matched the rhetoric," Harper said about the Liberal leader. "When it comes to the United States, Mr. Martin says he calls them as he sees them, but when it comes to American passage through Canada, he doesn't actually see anything. You don't defend national sovereignty with flags, cheap election rhetoric and advertising campaigns. You need forces on the ground, ships in the sea and proper surveillance."

Harper said the Conservatives will build three heavy-duty, armed icebreakers as well as a new port for them near Iqualuit.

The estimated total cost of the Conservatives' Arctic commitments is about $5.3 billion over five years.

Martin attempted to dismiss Harper's platform, saying it has been government policy for a long time. But his rationale was rather weak. He claimed the plan was too expensive and questioned the need to address any threats in the North.

The Conservative plan includes the following elements:

Station three new armed naval heavy icebreakers, to be made in Canada, in the area of Iqaluit, which will include 500 regular force personnel for crews and support and will be capable of carrying troops.

Build a new military/civilian deep-water docking facility in the Iqaluit area.

Establish a new Arctic National Sensor System for northern waters, which will include underwater surveillance technologies such as listening posts to monitor foreign submarines and ships.

Build a new Arctic army training centre in the area of Cambridge Bay on the Northwest Passage, staffed by an estimated 100 regular force personnel.

Station new fixed-wing search-and-rescue aircraft in Yellowknife.

Provide eastern and western Arctic air surveillance by stationing new long-range uninhabited aerial vehicle (UAV) squadrons at CFB Goose Bay and CFB Comox to provide continuous Arctic and ocean surveillance and patrol.

Revitalize the Canadian Rangers by recruiting up to 500 additional Rangers and increasing their level of training, activity, and equipment.

Provide an army emergency response capability for the Arctic through the new airborne battalion and airlift capacity stationed at CFB Trenton.

Once again Harper demonstrated that the Conservatives have a well-thought out and comprehensive platform in this campaign. Increasingly this past week Paul Martin has been looking flustered and off-key as he responds to Harper's inceasingly assertive thrusts.

Meanwhile Jack Layton went to Edmonton to take on the perceived "enemy" of non-profit health care, Alberta Premier Ralph Klein. Back off medicare, Layton warned Klein. Layton said he won't let the federal government or the provinces bring in private health care.

Singling out Klein, Layton said, "I came here to deliver a message, one that he needs to hear. Back off! You are not going to destroy public health care. New Democrats won't let you. Make no mistake about it."

"We now have a Liberal prime minister who seems to think that Lester Pearson is just the name of an airport. Paul Martin's Liberals are so busy playing the political games, they've forgotten what they believe in. Under Paul Martin, the Liberals have lost their values and broken so many promises they don't even bother to pretend anymore," Layton said.

He then turned to the Conservatives, describing them as "today's Liberals in a hurry."

"Stephen Harper wants to privatize faster, pollute faster, integrate our economy into the United States faster," he said.

The latest Strategic Counsel poll indicates that the gap between the Bloc and the Liberals is widening in Quebec and the race nationally is tightening.

Liberal: 33%
Conservative: 29%
NDP: 17%
Bloc Québécois: 15%
Green Party: 6%

In Ontario, the Liberal lead over the Tories - which reached 18 percentage points just over a week ago, has narrowed to 7 points

The latest SES tracking poll also shows the national gap between the Liberals and the Conservatives is narrowing.

Rumours abound on the internet that the Liberals will mount an aggressive series of attack ads after Christmas. You can see a preview of planned ads at Stephen Taylor's blog. It's worth a view.

Today's Toronto Star carries an incisive article by James Travers showing that there is little difference between Harper (Liberal-lite) and Martin (a Conservative with a winning smile). Travers speculates:

"If the election-day consensus is that Harper is Liberal-lite and Martin just a conservative with a winning smile, the hunger for change will outweigh the risks and this prime minister will be chased from power."

The Election: Day 23

The rhetoric about national unity continues to heat up. Paul Martin has decined Gilles Duceppe's challenge to debate him in Quebec. Duceppe was responding to Martin's remarks during last week's debates that he would debate Duceppe on any street corner anywhere in Quebec. His bluff called, Martin backed down. Into the breach stepped Stephen Harper who said he would debate Duceppe on behalf of the federalist cause even if Martin wouldn't. Duceppe said there was no point without Martin there.

Meanwhile, Martin claimed that Conservative Leader Stephen Harper went too far in suggesting the Liberals want a separatist government in Quebec. Martin said he's been fighting for national unity all his life.


Harper has been on the attack all week on the issue of Quebec separatism in an effort to grab the role of federalist champion from Martin and the Liberals. He suggested on Tuesday that Martin was hoping for a Parti Québécois victory in Quebec so he could play the hero defending national unity. Martin demanded an apology.

Harper laughed off Martin's demand, saying that Martin has made worse remarks about the Conservatives getting into bed with the separatists.

"This accusation I've made against Mr. Martin arises because it is Mr. Martin who's talked continually about a referendum and about having a PQ government in Quebec," said Harper.

Jack Layton accused both leaders of playing fire with national unity. Layton himself campaigned in the north seeking to sway voters in seats where the NDP had come close to winning previously. Layton said he will insist the winner of the election act on the $5.1-billion Kelowna agreements with native and Metis people.

A new poll showed the Bloc Quebecois up 5 points post-debate. The poll indicated that the Bloc had the support of 60% with the Liberals dropping further to 20%, down from 30% just before the election. It looks like Martin's attempt to polarize this election on the issue of national unity is backfiring on the Liberals.

It will be interesting to see if the Conservatives can make some headway in Ontario over the next several weeks.

The Election: Day 22

For the past week Martin has been playing the "Stand Up to Uncle Sam" card to the hilt,impugning Stephen Harper's patriotism in the process.Blogger Stephen Taylor has put together a plausible case that the the flare-up with the Americans was carefully orchestrated by the Martinites with ads filmed in advance/see Taylor

Harper is finally striking back, pointing out that it is "hypocrisy" for Martin to doubt anyone else's patriotism when he moved business holdings offshore for tax purposes.

"The problem with Mr. Martin's passion is it's all phoney," Harper said. "It's great to wrap yourself in the flag but when your own business interests are at stake you fly the flag of another country."

That's a reference to Canada Steamship Lines, the firm Martin transferred to his sons after becoming Prime Minister in 2003. The company has long had vessels registered in places like the Bahamas and Vanuatu to avoid paying higher Canadian taxes. According to CSL's website, the line — which employs 700 people, 500 of whom work in Canada — has 15 Canadian-flagged vessels in the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Seaway.

It also manages an international pool of 18 ships, eight of which are wholly owned by European companies.

"Another five are indirectly owned by companies in which CSL Group holds a non-controlling 50 per cent stake. CSL Group and its subsidiaries wholly own just eight international ships, five of which are in the pool," the website says. "In addition, the Group participates in joint ventures which include four ships which are owned between 25 and 50 per cent — none of these joint ventures are controlled by CSL Group."

At least two bulk cargo vessels in the fleetwere built in 1996 at a Shanghai shipyard with lower-paid Chinese workers. Harper said voters appreciate the irony of a Canadian leader exploiting loopholes such as flying flags of convenience on ships registered to tax havens.

"We all know Mr. Martin's game. I don't think ... he's had a free ride in the sense that it hasn't been noticed. I'm not sure Canadians are fooled," he said, after a breakfast rally to 250 people in Victoria.

"When he gets up and waves (his arms) and does the windmill things and `I love Canada and this is my flag and you'll never take it away from me,' ... I think people know there's a fair degree of hypocrisy there."

Today Harper claimed that the federal Liberals in Quebec would like nothing more than a separatist government. Harper said that the Liberals are fighting a phoney war against separatists in Quebec hoping to distract voters from their own record of corruption. The Liberals would like to see the Parti Québécois form a government in Quebec so the Liberals could assume the mantle of heroes of national unity.

Campaigning in Toronto,Jack Layton wants an immediate boost in the gas-tax transfer to municipalities. He wants to immediately boost the transfer to five cents a litre.
The Liberal government currently gives 1.5 cents a litre. Mr. Layton says the hike would give towns and cities $1.4-billion extra each year for transit.

Meanwhile Paul Martin today released a plan to support the agriculture sector by handing millions of dollars to farmers. Many of the details included in the announcement are not new, but were introduced by the Liberal government before it fell on Nov. 28.

Included among the planks of the Liberal agriculture policy are:

a review of the Agriculture Policy Framework, guided by the so-called "Easter Report" written earlier this year by Parliamentary Secretary for Rural Development Wayne Easter, beginning in 2006;
amendments to the Agriculture Marketing Programs Act (AMPA) in order to provide a previously announced $104 million in advances to the livestock sector;
a legislative amendment to the Agricultural Marketing Programs Act that would provide $104 million for the livestock sector;
$5 million per year, previously announced, for the promotion of Canadian agri-foods products overseas;
the creation of "offset credits" for farmers who adopt low-till or zero-till practices to reduce greenhouse gas emissions;
In addition, Martin said the extended lifetime capital gains exemption he offered small business owners earlier this week -- to $750,000 from the current $500,000 -- would benefit all Canadian fishers and farmers.

Martin's announcement also promised continued support and possible expansion for the Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration (PFRA), which promotes sustainable rural economy, starting with a pilot project in B.C.

Martin also announced continued funding for conservation and green-cover incentives of $30 million per year after the current program expires in 2008, and $100 million over five years to improve broadband access to rural and remote communities.

The Election: Day 21

More hypocrisy from Paul Martin! Martin said yesterday that Liberal candidates are entitled to run in this election even if they want to deny Charter rights to gays and lesbians seeking same-sex marriage.

This appears to contradict a controversial declaration made a day earlier by Mr. Martin, when he said Conservative leader Stephen Harper shouldn't even be running for the highest political office in the land because of his refusal to protect same-sex marriages as a Charter right.

But when pressed by journalists to explain why this double standard is acceptable, given that he says protection of the Charter is a fundamental "principle," Mr. Martin said his higher standard only applies to those leaders who want to run the government, not to regular MPs.

BTW Martin billed his party as an "agent for change" despite 12 years in power.

I wonder what weed he's smoking these days?

Meanwhile both Layton and Harper took aim at the Liberals re their impact on widening the rift with Quebec. Voters wary of widening Canada's rift with Quebec should think long and hard before voting Liberal, Layton warned Sunday.
Layton accused Martin of damaging the process of reconciliation with Quebec by trying to make a ballot-box question out of the separatist threat. Returning the Liberals to power would suggest to Quebec that the rest of Canada doesn't much care about the sponsorship scandal, he said.

"It would send a very strong message to Quebecers that Canadians frankly aren't very concerned about the Liberals' attempt to buy the support of Quebecers in a corrupt fashion."

Stephen Harper pledged that a Conservative government would recognize Quebec's provincial autonomy and give it a more prominent voice on the world stage.
Harper said he would allow Quebec to play a role in international bodies such as UNESCO. Harper accused the Liberals of damaging the federalist cause with the sponsorship scandal, and added the Conservative Party can make repairs.

Harper said a Conservative government would put an end to the scandals that have damaged the image of federalism in Quebec and have allowed profiteers to enrich themselves at the expense of taxpayers.

His proposals include:

Revising and tightening all procedures related to issuing contracts and using public funds.
Giving greater independence to the ethics commissioner and increased powers to the auditor general.
Creating an independent and objective parliamentary budget authority.
Ensuring that all governmental institutions – including foundations – are subject to full audits by the auditor general.
Reforming federal political party financing along the lines of the model established in Quebec by René Lévesque.

Martin's big announcement of the day was a promise to increase the lifetime capital gains tax exemption by 50 per cent to help small business owners and farmers. The exemption would be raised to $750,000 from $500,000.

Harper and the Notwithstanding clause

Many bloggers and commentators are speculating that Stephen Harper would invoke the Notwithstanding clause re SSM despite his public commitment not to do so.

Harper has:(1) committed to have a free vote on SSM and (2) to not use the Notwithstanding clause. If he has a free vote with a minority government it will not pass. Game over. If he had a majority(highly unlikely) and the vote passed then he would have to find a way to do it without using the Notwithstanding clause, or let it go. I don't believe that he would invoke the Notwithstanding clause, having said publicly that he wouldn't. While I strongly disagree with his position on SSM (and other social issues for that matter), I believe that, unlike Martin and McGuinty, he is trustworthy. Ironic, isn't it, given the Liberal scare-mongering on this issue? It will be a pity if the Liberals slip through to another minority in spite of their scandalous record because they can successfully exploit this one issue to their advantage.

The Election:Days 19 and 20

Post-debate the campaign has heated up with Martin, Harper and Layton slugging it out for votes in the close three-way race in B.C.

Layton's stock rose as a result of the English debate. Most polls and commentators were impressed with Layton's performance. He was the real winner in terms of improving voters' perceptions of him.

Campaigning hard in B.C. to recapture some seats lost previously to the Reform(Conservatives), Layton shifted gears somewhat to take on the Conservatives as well as the Liberals. If the NDP is to gain seats in B.C., it will have to take them from the Conservatives. Layton lashed out at "ineffective, out-of-touch" Conservatives," saying his five NDP MPs delivered more to B.C. than the 22 Tory MPs. However, he also opened the door to working with a Conservative minority should that be the election result. Layton said: "We will work with the House of Commons that's composed by Canadians. I think every political leader has that obligation."

Meanwhile Martin was slamming Stephen Harper as "unfit to govern". In response Harper accused Martin of intolerance. Harper reached out for votes in B.C. with a package of election goodies for British Columbia. He promised Canadian Forces ground troops would be stationed again on the West Coast, more MPs for B.C., money for Victoria sewage treatment and continued staffing of coastal lighthouses.
Harper also promised support for B.C.'s forest industry by fighting U.S. lumber tariffs "until this battle is won."

Columnist Sheila Copps had some telling comments about Martin's shift in positions on major issues:

"Two and a half years ago, the same prime minister stood on another stage in Vancouver and took the exact opposite position! In fact, so critical was he of the era of Chretien-Bush relations that he endorsed the "perimeter North America" concept proposed by the Business Council on National Issues, which would essentially keep a common fence around, not between, Canada and the U.S. I also recall him working behind the scenes to undermine then-PM Jean Chretien's decision not to send troops to Iraq."

"During that same Liberal debate, he also refused to support gay marriage and remained ambiguous about whether he would even sign the Kyoto accord."

Which confirms what we know, that Martin is a hypocrite!

Is the Green Party a sham?

Murray Dobbin writes in the The Tyee that the Green party is anything but Green.

In fact, all these categories make the assumption that the Green Party is at least, well, Green. They should take the time to be sure. In the last election I wrote, based on the policy platform on its web site, the party was right wing on social and fiscal policy and also pointed out that both the Sierra Club and Green Peace rated them below the NDP (and in most categories, below the Bloc) on environmental policies. Unfortunately, little has changed. Some things are actually worse.

Green Party leader Jim Harris, a former Tory and a motivational speaker for large corporations, is again preoccupied with running as many candidates as possible (he ran candidates in all 308 ridings in 2004). This is to ensure that there is a Green Party franchise in every riding in the country so the party's government funding remains intact. He knows that a certain percentage of voters will vote Green no matter what - and each vote brings the party $1.75. The party received over a million dollars under election financing rules implemented for the first time in 2004. Yet, Harris has been almost invisible since the last election, has done little organizing, no membership drive, has managed to raise just over $200,000 and has paid virtually no attention to policy development.

Obey your leader

But most disturbing to many inside the party, is Harris's authoritarian style. Many people vote Green because they assume it is more grass roots, more democratic, than the others. They would be shocked to know that the party is the most top down of any of the federal parties - and that Harris simply ignores decisions that he doesn't agree with. The situation is so bad that half of the party's governing council have resigned in protest or been forced out in the past eight months. Harris has not moved to replace them because, argue the dissidents, he is happy with the remaining council members who tend to support him and he does not want to risk having more people turn into troublesome dissidents.

For more details go to:
the tyee

The Election: Day 18/ the English debate

Global National poll indicates that Martin "won" (32%) followed by Harper(30%), then Layton (24%) with Duceppe well behind at 7%.

My personal impression is that Layton had the best overall consistent performance and kept getting his message across again and again. Harper had the misfortune of being hit with the SSM question right up front but he kept his cool and acquitted himself well. Martin didn't make any major gaffes but Layton and Duceppe kept hammering him. The saving grace for Martin was his stirring attack on Duceppe near the end re keeping Canada united. Undoubtedly it was well rehearsed but it came across as heart-felt emotion. Probably the best clip of the evening. If you look at the Global poll numbers, in reality the three English leaders were given roughly equal ratings and Duceppe was rated poorly. I thought Duceppe performed much more poorly tonight than in the English debate of 2004 but since he was rated the winner last night it may not do him any damage in Quebec.

Layton acquitted himself well tonight. If he can do the same in the January debate the NDP may pick up strength.

Harper held his own overall. I would have put him ahead of Martin based on the debate. His Achilles' heel in Ontario and BC is the SSM issue.

The Election: Day 17/Nothing gained, nothing lost

Tonight the first of the debates, in French. It didn't offer much to help an undecided voter decide where to put their X. Duceppe was restrained by the format from getting at Martin in a sustained manner. Harper and Layton were just along for the ride. My overall assessment would be:nothing gained, nothing lost. The sponsorship scandal came up early on and Martin took some heat on that but no major blow struck. Duceppe coasted through the debate not really challenged.I found the format was not really helpful.

Let's hope the debate tomorrow night is a little more stimulating.

The Quebec wing of the Liberal Party accidentally released a list of ridings yesterday that shows it has written off a majority of seats in the province and conceded almost all of the francophone areas to the Bloc Québécois.A mistakenly sent e-mail suggests they've already conceded 45 seats to the Bloc and can only count on winning ten seats. The rest are up for grabs.

The gaffe left the Liberals red-faced, given that they have characterized the election as a referendum on Canadian unity. The election results could prove to be an embarrassment if, as the list suggests, the Liberals have little hope of winning 45 of the 75 seats in Quebec and can only count on winning 10 of the 75 seats.

For more details go to:
Globe and Mail

One noteworthy event today was the announcement that Ed Schreyer, former NDP Premier of Manitoba and former Governor General, will be representing the NDP in a Winnipeg riding currently held by the Conservatives. This has generated some controversy over whether it is appropriate for a former Governor General to re-enter the political arena. Personally, given his former political background, I don't see any problem with him offering himself as a candidate again. The GG is only a ceremonial position anyway.

The Election:Day 16

Today the debate over the "intervention" by the U.S. Ambassador in the campaign intensified. Martin cranked up the rhetoric."I am not going to be dictated to as to the subjects I should raise," Martin said at a lumber mill in B.C.

"When it comes to defending Canadian values, when it comes to standing up for Canadian interests, I'm going to call it as I see it," Martin said. Trumpeting the "modest" progress that has been made recently in the softwood lumber dispute, Martin said those results came from insisting that the United States live up to the North American Free Trade Agreement. "The progress we have made has been made because we have, in fact, stood up for Canadian rights," he said.

Also in B.C. getting ready for the debates,NDP Leader Jack Layton said that Canada's reputation on the world stage has been damaged by Prime Minister Paul Martin's "shameless posturing.''Martin has nothing to show for all his bluster about softwood duties, said Layton, who favours recovering the money by slapping an export tax on Canadian gas and oil shipped to the United States.

Layton also accused Martin of electioneering by calling on the U.S. to join the Kyoto accord on climate change when the Americans have actually done a better job of reducing greenhouse gases than Canada.

"He thinks he can stand up and wag his finger at George Bush and somehow impress somebody,'' Layton said. "It's time he started delivering results. That would allow Canadians to be able to speak to the world.''

Meanwhile Stephen Harper today announced the CPC's democratic reform package.Harper laid out his electoral reform platform plank, the main component of which is reforming the Senate. "We need a ballot with senators' names and seats with senators that have been elected." The appointed Senate, he said, is a "relic of the 19th century."

Another key element of the CPC electoral reform package is setting fixed election dates four years apart.

The Election: Day 15

Why are Americans intervening to help Martin get re-elected? Liberal strategists must be rubbing their hands in glee tonight after U.S. Ambassador David Wilkins told Paul Martin to shut up and stop using the U.S. as a campaign target to further his efforts to get re-elected. Wilkins said Martin risks damaging relations between the countries by dragging the United States into the election campaign. In response Martin thumped his chest and proclaimed he would defend Canadian interests always. If the Americans are truly annoyed at Martin's pious platitudes at the Climate Change Conference last week, why would they foster his chances for re-election by publicly chastising him? Are they just plain dumb? A scolding from George Bush might be the one thing that would unite the majority of Canadians behind the Liberal Party.

Harper made major announcement on defence today, promising more spending than the Liberals.He will buy transport planes so our troops won't have to hitch hike anymore. He will double the DART complement and he will restore the Air Borne Regiment. All the kind of defence policy statements you would expect from a Conservative leader.

Jack Layton finally took off his gloves and came out swinging on medicare.He promised to save a 'sabotaged' medicare. Layton proposed tough new rules to stop what he calls an agenda by his political rivals that have put medicare on a precarious path towards privatization.

"Make no mistake about it, medicare is being sabotaged by people who claim to be protecting it: Paul Martin, Ralph Klein, Stephen Harper, Jean Charest and Gordon Campbell are all on the same wavelength," Layton said.

"They want to open Canada's health system to the profiteers. They know that's the last thing Canadians want."

Layton expressed alarm over a recent Supreme Court decision in Quebec that ruled that a man could seek private health insurance if care was not provided quickly enough. Layton described the ruling as one that "may have opened the door to private providers to break our single-pay system."

He went on to accuse Alberta premier Ralph Klein and Quebec Premier Jean Charest of harbouring "wrong-headed plans" to take advantage of that ruling.

"And Canadians need to know that Paul Martin and Stephen Harper would both let them do it."

The New Democrat Leader said his party will defend public health care in the next parliament by:

-refusing to permit the dismantling of Canada's single-payer medicare system;

-prohibiting the use of federal transfers, directly or indirectly, to subsidize a new, profit-making private insurance system covering medically-necessary services;

-ensuring that no federal money be used to cover the salaries or costs of doctors and any other medical personnel involved in a new, separate, profit-making private insurance system; and

-tough monitoring and enforcement of these rules.

Finally, Layton has staked out a position in keeping with the NDP's core values and differentiated himself from the Liberals on the issue of key concern to Canadians. This should set the scene for an interesting debate later this week.

The Election: Day Fourteen

The Liberals were still wiping egg off their faces today after Scott Reid's "beer and popcorn" remarks yesterday. All three opposition parties described the comments as characteristic Liberal arrogance and contempt for voters.

Caught in a bad spot Martin tried to deflect attention by bringing up Harper's position on same sex marriage and asking if he would invoke the Notwithstanding clause to override gay rights. He was not successful in diverting attention from Scott Reid's gaffe.

Meanwhile the NDP joined the child care debate.The NDP would create 275,000 child-care spaces across the country over the next four years, Jack Layton said.
Layton suggested that a national system based on the Quebec model be created. The party would spend $1.8 billion in the first year of the system and increase that amount by $250 million a year over the next three years. The NDP calculates that would be enough money to create 200,000 child-care spaces in the first year, and 25,000 more each year following.

Layton said he would introduce a child-care act that would spell out that federal funding would be spent only on "licensed, high-quality, non-profit child care."

The polls continue to bemuse me. I don't understand why the polls don't seem to reflect what is happening in the campaign.

Also this election was triggered because the Liberal government had lost "the moral authority to govern" as a result of Adcam etc. Apart from the Bloc's pursuit of this in Quebec, when are the Conservatives and the NDP going to remind voters of the Liberal track record of scandal? Someone should be playing Brault's testimony at the Gomery Commission, for example.