Dion blew his chances

Flaherty today presented a ho-hum "thin gruel" budget, a clear sign that Harper is in no hurry to go to the polls, notwithstanding the fevered rhetoric of recent weeks. Harper's appetite for an election diminished when he realized that the parties were tied in terms of voter support and the best the Cons could hope for was another minority.



Harper gambled on Afhanistan by talking tough but then compromised on the Liberal amendment. When Dion allowed the Ignatieff and Rae forces to persuade him that he should not go to the electorate on the Afghanistan issue, he lost a major wedge issue on which public opinion favoured the previous Liberal position.



With respect to the budget it clearly was not designed to support a Conservative election campaign. There is no poison bill to force the Liberals to vote to bring down the government. And according to Dion's post-budget statement the Liberals have decided not to provoke an election at this time.



So Dion is left dangling in the wind. The public perception of him as weak and vacillating can only be enhanced by his recent decisions. He may well have blown his only chance to secure a minority government and helped ensure that Harper secures another minority when he finally goes to the polls. Should that occur, Dion will be swept aside and Ignatieff and Rae will tussle for the leadership.



I assume that the Ignatieff and Rae forces have been pivotal in these recent decisions. Certainly it's in Bob Rae's interest to get into the House via the impending by-election, where he can better position himself for a leadership campaign. And Ignatieff, given his stance on foreign policy issues, would not have wanted to campaign on a platform which involved pulling the troops out of Afghanistan in 2009, a platform which might well have led to a Liberal minority and strengthened Dion's position.



But, given the deteriorating state of the Ontario manufacturing industry and the lack of adequate provisions in the budget to address this, many Ontario Liberal MPs will have to hold their noses if the collective decision is to vote for the budget. If, on the other hand, the Liberals abstain (once again), how will they face Ontario voters come election time?

General Hillier should be fired

General Rick Hillier has crossed the line. In the midst of a debate in the Canadian Parliament over Canada's continued role in Afghanistan, Hillier told an association of defence contractors today that prolonged debate is putting the lives of Canadian soldiers at risk. He implied that the suicide bombings in Kandahar this week occurred because the Taliban perceived a political vulnerability and chose to exploit it.

The Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition have been collaborating to forge a motion that would see Parliament vote to extend the mission with a clear deadline for exit and conditions for staying beyond the original exit date of February 2008.

Hillier's remarks go beyond the pale and represent a crass attempt by the leader of the Canadian military to terminate the Parliamentary debate. Has Hillier forgotten that we live in a democracy and that Parliament, not the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, determines the extent and nature of the commitment of Canadian forces to a foreign conflict.

It's time for the PM to fire Hillier and show the country who's in charge. If not, what's next? A coup d'etat in Ottawa?

Afghan mission being reviewed

The Washington Post reports that the Bush White House is reviewing the status of the war in Afghanistan. They are said to be deeply concerned about the prospect of failure in Afghanistan. With no American trropds available, Bush officials are expected to continue pressing for more NATO troops to fight an insurgency that made this the most violent year since the Taliban and Al Qaeda were routed in December 2001.

According to Julianne Smith, director of the Europe Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies,the mission in Afghanistan is at risk of failure, as political support in European capitals is straining NATO’s ability to sustain, let alone expand its effort there.
“The mission in Afghanistan has been suffering from neglect on all sides,” she said.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/16/washington/16afghan.html?_r=1&th=&oref=slogin&emc=th&pagewanted=all

Harper in tie with Liberals:Cons stalled

Latest Strategic Counsel poll of party support shows Haper and the Conservatives have dropped to low low 30s in popular support and are now tied with Liberals at 31%. The poll revealed that discomfort with Harper's Conservatives is deepening among women, francophones and wealthier Canadians. Part of this is explained by deepening concern about Canadian casualties in Afghanistan. Harper is paying now for his pugnacious stance on the Afghanistan war and his alliance with Bush's policies. In recent days he has begun to acknowledge that the nature of the Canadian commitment could change in February 2009. Whether that will affect voters' perceptions remains to be seen. In any event the environment and healthcare outrank terrorism as priority concerns among Canadians. And the Conservatives are not exactly shining on either of these files.

Hillier blocks release of detainee info

Why is General Rick Hillier preventing the release of detainee information under Access to Information Act? The Globe and Mail reports that the office of General Hillier has halted the release of any documents relating to detainees captured in Afghanistan under the federal Access to Information Act, claiming that disclosure of any such information could endanger Canadian troops. Apparently the flow of documents about detainees has virtually dried up and the department has summarily rejected requests for the same kind of documents it released earlier.

What is General Hillier trying to hide? I thought Canadians were fighting and dying in Afghanistan to preserve freedom. This is rather ironic in light of this denial of the basic right to freedom of information here in Canada.

Not smart, Stephen!

Looks like Harper failed to take note of my incisive analysis. He's off again to Afghanistan playing cozy with Karzai and pretending the Canadian role is all about humanitarianism. Tell that to the dead troops.Harper should be distancing himself from Afghanistan as quietly as he can. Instead, he's again publicly identifying himself with the war. Not smart, Stephen!

Harper govt caught in web of lies

Stephen Harper's mad scramble to make sense out of the inexcusable would be funny if it weren't so dishonest. As he faces the first real crisis of his mandate he comes across as a bully who sees nothing wrong with blatantly lying to the Canadian people and their representatives. His iron-fisted rule has come unglued. Caught in a trap by suppressing the assessment of Canada's diplomats in Afghanistan that detainees are being tortured, Harper is sideswiped by Gordon O'Connor's sudden claim at the Foreign Affairs Committee that a new arrangement has been worked out with the Afghans. Neither O'Connor nor General Hillier had any details to provide. Then Harper tells the House that the new arrangement is in the process of being formalized. Facing a barrage of questions from the Opposition parties, Harper's only response is to resort to schoolyard bully tactics and attempt to bludgeon them into submission. The distinction between Harper and Dion is becoming clearer for voters: dishonesty and lack of integrity versus honesty and integrity. Stay tuned!