Latest Strategic Counsel poll of party support shows Haper and the Conservatives have dropped to low low 30s in popular support and are now tied with Liberals at 31%. The poll revealed that discomfort with Harper's Conservatives is deepening among women, francophones and wealthier Canadians. Part of this is explained by deepening concern about Canadian casualties in Afghanistan. Harper is paying now for his pugnacious stance on the Afghanistan war and his alliance with Bush's policies. In recent days he has begun to acknowledge that the nature of the Canadian commitment could change in February 2009. Whether that will affect voters' perceptions remains to be seen. In any event the environment and healthcare outrank terrorism as priority concerns among Canadians. And the Conservatives are not exactly shining on either of these files.
2007/07/19
2007/05/20
Will Stephen Harper be a one-term wonder?
Recent polls indicate that the Conservatives and the Liberals are virtually tied in popular support. After an initial surge in the spring around the time of the budget the Cons have dropped back to levels below what they achieved in the last election. While the Liberals have gained no momentum following the election of Stephane Dion, they have not plummeted further as some pundits predicted.
In the first six months of his minority government Stephen Harper was on a roll implementing his famous five priorities. He projected an aura of a knowledgeable decisive leader. Majority government seemed not only possible but probable after the next election. Contrast that with the last six months. Harper was blind-sided by the climate change issue. He bungled the first attempt to deal with it. Then he dumped Rona Ambrose and brought in a menacing pitbull, John Baird, formerly of the Harris government and widely regarded in Ontario as a heartless Minister. Baird's efforts on the climate change file have not advanced Harper's position one iota. If anything, they convey an impression of a government floundering to find its way.
The other big issue that has stuck to Harper and won't let go is Afghanistan. And Harper has made this his own file. O'Connor, Hillier and ilk do his bidding. Harper has seriously miscaculated the mood of the country. He has also alienated a lot of folks by calling anyone who questions the nature of our invovement in Afghanistan anti-patriotic or pro-Taliban. During the detainee debacle he began to look increasingly un-Prime Ministerial.
He has gone from a situation where everything was falling his way to one where the government appears to have lost its way and is at odds with the majority of Canadians on at least two major files. Moreover, both Harper and his Cabinet now come across as bullies. Who likes bullies?
Has Harper squandered his chances at a majority government? Is the best he can now hope for another minority? May even that be beyond his grasp? All things are possible of course and he may yet re-invent himself as a kindly leader with the best interests of all Canadians at heart. But don't count on it. Methinks a majority Harper government is increasingly unlikely and he will have to switch strategy to sustain a minority.
