Harper in trouble

A new Harris-Decima poll puts Liberals and Tories in dead heat, with opposition making inroads in key battlegrounds. Overall the two parties are tied at 32 per cent. But Harris-Decima chairman Allan Gregg says the real story lies below the headline numbers.

“What you have on the surface is a dead heat, but if you dig a little deeper, what you see is that the Liberals are clearly making some inroads into key, battleground constituencies.”

“They are emerging as the federalist default option to the BQ in the province of Quebec, they are ahead in Ontario for the first time since September.”

He observed that Harper's decision to prorogue Parliament has added to what has always been a character issue. In terms of his leadership rating, "Harper basically took a 14-point hit between fall and post-prorogation.”

Keep it up Canadians! Let him know what we think and we may soon be rid of this dictator.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/grits-gaining-ground-in-ontario-quebec-poll/article1452478/

Harper a political changeling

James Travers continues to demonstrate that he is one of the most astute political observers writing for Canadian media. In his latest column he observes:

"The problem is Harper is a political changeling. Instead of the rigid ideologue feared by many voters, his guide rail is expediency. He will say and do whatever is necessary to take, protect and manipulate power. The PM fills political vacuum with rhetorical hokum."

He is "the suspect promoter of promises that come from nowhere and are going nowhere."

The best description of Harper that I have seen so far.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/757992--travers-pm-fills-political-vacuum-with-rhetorical-hokum

Latest poll of Canadian voter intentions

The latest Ekos poll done for the CBC suggests the following:

Ekos: Con 33.1% Lib 27.8% Ndp 16% Grn 13.4% Bq 9.8%


Regional breakdown can be found at Kady O'Malley's bolg with some speculation on the regional implications:

http://www.cbc.ca/politics/insidepolitics/2010/01/orders-ekos-of-the-day-010709-33127816013498.html

One thing seems apparent. The Conservatives are taking a beating from the widespread backlash against Harper's decision to prorogue Parliament. It may well be that the dictator has overplayed his hand.

Harper majority slipping away

After the easy ride of Week One, notwithstanding his minor warroom gaffes, Stephen Harper's warm and fuzzy campaign is running into rough water this second week. He is being hit harder by both the NDP and the Liberals in ads and speeches. Dion is finally on the offensive. The economic downturn in the US and to some extent in Canada may become Harper's Achilles' Heel.

As I mentioned yesterday Harper's Conservatives do not have a good fiscal track record so far, taking the country from record surpluses to the verge of a deficit. Like John McCain, Stephen Harper likes to say that the economic fundamentals are strong. He must be getting his advice from Jeff Rubin of the CIBC. Dion hit hard on the economic theme today in Halifax, pointing to the Liberal financial track record during the Chretien/Martin years.

The fact is that a deepening Canadian housing market slump, plus a flood of other worrisome economic reports on both sides of the border, added to fears of a widening U.S. financial market crisis. Canadian home sales tumbled nearly 20 per cent last month from a year earlier and prices were off more than five per cent. Canadians also cut their purchases of new cars in July. And jobs continue to disappear in southern Ontario. This provides potent ground for the Liberals to till in the coming weeks.

Most recent Strategic Counsel polling indicates the Conservatives are losing their lead in swing Ontario ridings, with their lead shrinking to its lowest level so far this campaign in these key battlegrounds. The Cons now have only a five-point lead over the Liberals in 20 Ontario ridings where the race was tightest in the last election or by-election, down from the 19-point lead the Conservatives enjoyed over the Liberals in those battleground ridings Sept. 10-13 (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080916.welectionpoll17/BNStory/politics/home ). Their chances of winning a majority are slipping away.

This campaign is only beginning. Stay tuned.

Election 2008: Day Nine

There was one encouraging sign for the Liberals today. The Harris-Decima daily rolling poll showed a softening of support for the Conservatives, dropping from 41 to 38 %. The Liberals picked up three points. The spread between the two parties is still considerable. As I suggested earlier, the Liberal goal should be to hold Harper to another minority. This would allow them an opportunity to retool and pick a new leader before the next election.

Stephane Dion's Green Shift, while supported by a lot of environmentally minded citizens, is in danger of becoming an albatross around the Liberals' neck. Dion seems unable to explain it clearly and concisely in a way that would successfully deflect Harper's attacks.

After this weekend's meltdown in the US, the economy is likely to loom front and center as an election issue. The Conservatives are trying to sell themselves as prudent fiscal managers. This conflicts with their record since Harper took the reins of power. The slaying of the deficit and the creation of large surpluses occurred during the Chretien/Martin years. Since 2006 Harper has squandered the surplus and left us on the brink of a return to deficit financing. The Liberals should be emphasizing that record of good financial management.

The Libs should also be showcasing their bench strength in contrast to Harper's one-man show. Where are Iggy, Rae, Dryden, Goodale etc?

Today Dion was in Newfoundland attempting to capitalize on Danny Williams' ABC campaign. He announced $420 million for fisheries programs, most of it aimed at offsetting the carbon tax. But even there he was placed on the defensive when former Liberal provincial/federal cabinet minister John Efford was shown on national television stating that everyone he talks to is concerned about the proposed carbon tax. Nonetheless, the Liberals have some hope of picking up a seat or two there, with Loyola Hearn and Norm Doyle having abandoned the Conservative ship in the face of Danny's onslaught. The NDP might have a chance in St. John's East where Jack Harris, former provincial NDP leader, is running.

Meanwhile Jack Layton was busy in Halifax where he made a billion-dollar promise to fix the health care system once and for all. He promised that an NDP government would spend an average of $200-million a year to increase training spaces and help provinces expand their medical schools. The aim would be to boost the number of new nurses and doctors by 50 per cent to address a shortage that has left five million Canadians without a family doctor. Certainly a worthy goal, if he ever had a chance to pursue it.

Election 2008: Day Eight

Harper and Dion took the day off. Layton campaigned in Gatineau and Elizabeth May appeared on Cross-country Check-Up with Rex Murphy.

Pundits were busy assessing the first week of the campaign. Jeff Simpson of the Globe and Mail gave the nod to Harper as the week's winner:

"Distractions aside, the Conservatives know what they are doing, how to do it, whom they are targeting and with what messages. The campaign tour runs with paramilitary precision. Local candidates, as in previous elections, are prevented from speaking to journalists. The whole campaign revolves around Mr. Harper, as does the entire government. Ministers are pygmies in the campaign, as most of them are in the government, and it would appear nothing will change after the election, since the Conservatives have attracted almost no new candidates of great stature. As they paraded out their new candidates across the country, the most common reaction was: Who?
The Conservatives are trying (thus far successfully) to defang Mr. Harper among swing voters. The entire Conservative strategic effort – in which policy, speechmaking and advertising reinforce each other – is to make Canadians, or more precisely middle-class Canadians, feel comfortable with the idea of Mr. Harper and the Conservative Party as middle-of-the-road, pragmatic, non-ideological."
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080912.wsimpson13/BNStory/politics/home

The latest Canadian Press Harris-Decima poll indicates that the Conservatives have solidified a substantial lead among Canadian voters, thanks at least in part to a lack of confidence in Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion. Those polled supported the Conservatives 40%, Liberals 26%, NDP 15%,Green party 9%, and Bloc Québécois 8%. One interesting note is that Jack Layton remained the most popular of the five leaders, with 53 per cent of respondents registering a positive impression and just 33 per cent a negative one. This explains stories today suggesting that the Tories will turn their guns on Layton next week.

Harper's campaign will focus next on Ontario and Quebec where he needs to win seats to obtain the much desired but unstated goal of a majority. The Bloc still has a slight edge over the Cons in Quebec. Today the Conservatives unveiled new ads taking aim at Duceppe. The Liberals unveiled new ads featuring speakers other than Dion, taking aim at the Conservatives' negative campaign.

I have not been attempting to summarize the promises made by the various parties this past week. A handy summary of promises so far can be found at CTV.ca ( http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20080911/election2008_promises_080913/20080913?s_name=election2008&no_ads= ).

For those interested in projected seat outcomes based on the polls so far, I recommend checking the Calgary Grit ( http://calgarygrit.blogspot.com/ ) and Democratic Space ( http://democraticSPACE.com/canada2008 ) websites.

Calgary Grits latest has Tories now projected to win 144.5 seats, the Liberals 92.5, the Bloc 42.3, and the NDP 27.8. Greg Morrow of Democratic Space projects Tories 146, Liberals 91, NDP 30, and the Bloc 39. These are remarkably similar. 155 seats are required to form a majority government. So at this stage in the campaign the Tories are within spitting distance of a majority.

Election 2008: Day Six

At the end of Day Six you have to wonder what is happening in this campaign. For Mr. Control Freak, Stephen Harper, it has been a week of gaffes. First, the pooping penguin. Then the attempt to block Elizabeth May of the Greens from participating in the debates by threatening to pick up his marbles and boycott the debates ( Yes, Jack, you didn't win any points on this one either). A public backlash forced Harper, Layton and the networks to reverse themselves. May will now participate. She got lots of favourable airplay from the big boys' antics.

Then Ryan Sparrow, Director of Communications, for the Conservatives took a swipe at a father who had lost his son in Afghanistan. The father, Jim Davis, criticized Harper for reversal of position on Afghanistan, saying that his son's sacrifice would have been in vain. (Harper, pandering to Quebec voters, had announced that Canada would pull out of Afghanistan in 2011 no matter what the circumstances by that time). Sparrow tried to smear Jim Davis as an Iggy supporter. Harper had to apologize and suspend Sparrow for the duration of the campaign. All in all, on the surface not an auspicious beginning for the Conservatives.

Harper's policy announcements/ the diesel tax cut and the Afghanistan policy reversal/ kind of got lost in the furore generated by the missteps.

Stephane Dion soldiered through the week, coming across as the victim of a mean-spirited Conservative campaign whose ads continue to consist of personal attacks on Dion's leadership abilities. His explanations of the Green Shift became more articulate and catchy as the week progressed. He survived all the pundits wink/wink stuff about the slow start to his campaign and the delay in securing his campaign plane.

Jack Layton continued to assert that he is campaigning to become PM. Overall, his campaign so far has been assertive and effective. The NDP bounced back to pick up additional support in BC. Today Jack took the most aggressive swing at the oil companies for the sudden overnight increase in the price of gasoline by 13 cents a liter, allegedly due to Hurricane Ike. This probably struck some resonant chords with voters who generally found the companies' explanation a bit far-fetched.

BQ leader Gilles Duceppe is being pushed hard by the Conservatives who hope to forge a majority by taking seats from the Bloc in Quebec. He was not helped by a PQ Cabinet Minister who declared that the Bloc had lost its relevance. Duceppe's main theme has been that Quebecers need to support the BQ in order to keep Harper from securing a majority.

Today Harper announced that Canada would welcome even greater foreign investment/ takeovers of Canadian companies by increasing the threshhold to trigger reviews of such takeovers from $250 million to $1 billion. No doubt this will go down well with the Fraser Institute and in his Alberta stronghold but what is its appeal for Joe and Jane Q Canadian?

Overall, it would appear that the Conservative campaign got off to a shaky start. But the latest poll today appears to contradict that impression. A new Canadian Press-Harris-Decima survey put the Tories at 41 per cent support, with the Liberals well back at 26 per cent, suggesting his Conservatives could be headed for a majority government (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080912.welxngaining0912/BNStory/politics/home)
But these early polls could actually turn out to be an albatross around Harper's neck. If voters get the impression that a Conservative majority is imminent, this could well cause them to rethink their voting intentions, given the apparent aversion to giving an autocrat even greater power to reshape Canada.

The 2008 Canadian Election: Day One

It's now official. The writ has been dropped. We will vote on October 14th. And already the parties are staking out their positions. You could be forgiven if you thought the election actually started weeks ago. Stephen Harper has been playing High Noon all summer, first telling Dion to "fish or cut bait", then inviting the opposition to pledge allegiance to his agenda this fall "or else". After the charade of meeting the three leaders individually for a few minutes each, Harper visited the GG this morning to pull the plug on Parliament and start his campaign for a majority government. (Pardon me: he says repeatedly that he expects another "minority"; wouldn't want to rattle those voters still fearful of what Harper might do with a majority).

Too bad he had to break his own election promises and, some argue, a law his government enacted, to precipitate an election now when he considered the stars best aligned for good fortune for the Conservatives. In his 2006 Blue Book Harper promised:

"Elections are to be held every four years, except when a government loses the confidence of the House."

So much for that promise! But wait... this Parliament had become "dysfunctional" the PM claimed. If that's the case why is he promising to campaign on the Conservatives' record of achievements and promises fulfilled. Ironic, non?

Stephane Dion meanwhile seems to have had some difficulty in getting to the launch pad, with a rather leisurely start to the campaign. He will campaign on his environmental agenda, the Green Shift, and attack the Conservatives' record of broken promises.

Jack Layton was quicker off the mark stating that Harper had quit his job and that he (Layton) was applying for it. The NDP appears to be ignoring the Liberals and targeting the Cons in their early ads.

Gilles Duceppe of the BQ was perhaps the most honest of the bunch. He informed us that the Bloc's mission this time is to prevent Harper from getting a majority. And indeed a lot rides on whether the Bloc can prevent further Conservative inroads in Quebec.

Stay tuned!

Harper to pull plug:why?

Stephen Harper is getting ready to dissolve Parliament and precipitate an early fall election. Speculation is rampant on why he is choosing a visit to the polls at this time. Harper himself offers the spurious argument that Parliament has become dysfunctional and he has no alternative. He has scheduled meetings with the leaders of the Opposition parties to see whether they will commit not to oppose the Conservative fall agenda, whatever that might be. Does anyone have a clue what that is? If you accept this specious reasoning I suggest a quick visit to the doctor to get your head examined.

The most plausible argument advanced so far is that Harper expects his government to fall this fall, having long passed its Best Before date. That being said, Stephen, who is a well-known control fanatic, has decided that he must be seen to be in control of events and hence trigger the inevitable election himself.

I have another theory. Recent polls show different stories but those I trust the most, e.g. Nanos, suggest that Harper could be in a fight to maintain his minority:

Ipsos: Con 33% Lib 31% Ndp 16% Grn 10%
Nanos: Lib 35% Con 33% Ndp 17% Grn 7% ...

Against this we have an Angus-Reid poll showing the Conservatives widening their lead on the Liberals and in reach of a majority. Frankly I don't believe the latter scenario.

The dead heat/tie scenario is much more likely, notwithstanding Dion's evident shortcomings as Liberal leader and rural voters' failure to embrace the Green Shift's tax implications. Harper's sheen has been tarnished.

Reading these entrails, Harper has decided to go to the polls now rather than later because the Conservative stock is falling and a Liberal minority becomes more possible the longer he waits.

Am I daydreaming or indulging in wishful thinking? We shall see, probably in October.

Update: Monday will be Liberal Leader Stephane Dion's turn to meet with Prime Minister Stephen Harper ahead of what is widely expected to be a looming election call. Dion had indicated he was too busy to meet with Harper before Sept. 9. After several attempts to set up a meeting, the prime minister suggested an election call could come with or without a Dion meeting. The two are now slated to meet Monday at 4 p.m. at the prime minister's residence.

A centrepiece of Tory democratic reform initiatives in the last election was a law fixing election dates to be held every four years, with the first scheduled for October 2009. Harper has argued that the law only really applies in a majority-government situation. "The election campaign, in some sense, has already started," Rae said, adding Dion will ask how Harper can go against his own law.

NAFTA-gate,Cadman "bribe" entangle Harper government

Stephen Harper has been busy this week digging himself a deeper and deeper hole. First, the Cadman affair burst his budget bubble. The revelation that Dona Cadman, the widow of late MP Chuck Cadman, had stated, in a book awaiting release, that Chuck Cadman had told her that the Conservatives had offered him a million- dollar insurance policy to vote against the Martin government in May 2005 shocked the foundations of a government which came to office promising integrity and ethicical reform. This was subsequently confirmed by Cadman's daughter and son-in-law. The Opposition lost no time in pouncing, accusing Harper of countenancing a bribery attempt. (Cadman had turned the offer down.) Harper had been interviewed by the book's author and is reported to have acknowleged that two senior Conservatives met with Cadman and offered "financial considerations" in return for his vote.

Harper has vigorously denied the bribery accusations. But then he made a big mistake. His lawyers filed a notice of a Libel suit unless the Liberals apologized in Parliament and removed the alleged defamatory remarks from the party website. This was quickly interpreted as intimidation aimed at hiding the truth.

Then another bombshell exploded in Harper's face. This concerned a leak of a private conversation between an Obama adviser and someone in the Canadian Consulate in Chicago. Obama and Clinton were involved in closely contested primaries in Ohio and Texas. In Ohio the economy and lost jobs were a big issue. Both candidates talked tough about NAFTA and renegotiating NAFTA if necessary to secure better safeguards for American workers. On Feb 8th an Obama adviser met with a Consulate official who later wrote a memo to embassy officials in which he stated that the Obama adviser had implied that Obama was indulging in political posturing and would not tamper with NAFTA. This report made its way to Ottawa.

Shortly thereafter CTV News reported the essence of the Consulate's report. The Canadian embassy denied it but CTV's reporter stated that a Canadian official had again confirmed the story. All hell broke loose both in the US and Canada. Media and the Clinton campaign seized on the leak to call into question Obama's integrity. Clinton claimed that Obama was saying one thing to the voters of Ohio and another to a foreign government. This was reinforced by the leak to the media of the memo in question. This cast doubts upon Obama's credibility. Clinton won Ohio by a comfortable margin, no doubt aided by these developments.

Back in Ottawa, the Opposition again pounced. Harper was forced to admit that this was a significant error and someone had acted improperly and possibly illegally and that he would launch an internal investigation. Today the Globe and Mail reported that the intial leak had come from the PM's Chief of Staff, Ian Brodie, at a pre-budget lockup. Others confirmed this. It is still not clear who later leaked the memo. Harper admitted that what had happened was a serious error that may have damaged the candidacy of Senator Obama. He promised to widen the investigation to include the PMO. Meanwhile the Opposition parties and many pundits were calling on the PM to fire his Chief of Staff. This time the government looks guilty of meddling in the US election campaign and the scandal appears to reach to the heart of the PM's nerve center at PMO.

Dion blew his chances

Flaherty today presented a ho-hum "thin gruel" budget, a clear sign that Harper is in no hurry to go to the polls, notwithstanding the fevered rhetoric of recent weeks. Harper's appetite for an election diminished when he realized that the parties were tied in terms of voter support and the best the Cons could hope for was another minority.



Harper gambled on Afhanistan by talking tough but then compromised on the Liberal amendment. When Dion allowed the Ignatieff and Rae forces to persuade him that he should not go to the electorate on the Afghanistan issue, he lost a major wedge issue on which public opinion favoured the previous Liberal position.



With respect to the budget it clearly was not designed to support a Conservative election campaign. There is no poison bill to force the Liberals to vote to bring down the government. And according to Dion's post-budget statement the Liberals have decided not to provoke an election at this time.



So Dion is left dangling in the wind. The public perception of him as weak and vacillating can only be enhanced by his recent decisions. He may well have blown his only chance to secure a minority government and helped ensure that Harper secures another minority when he finally goes to the polls. Should that occur, Dion will be swept aside and Ignatieff and Rae will tussle for the leadership.



I assume that the Ignatieff and Rae forces have been pivotal in these recent decisions. Certainly it's in Bob Rae's interest to get into the House via the impending by-election, where he can better position himself for a leadership campaign. And Ignatieff, given his stance on foreign policy issues, would not have wanted to campaign on a platform which involved pulling the troops out of Afghanistan in 2009, a platform which might well have led to a Liberal minority and strengthened Dion's position.



But, given the deteriorating state of the Ontario manufacturing industry and the lack of adequate provisions in the budget to address this, many Ontario Liberal MPs will have to hold their noses if the collective decision is to vote for the budget. If, on the other hand, the Liberals abstain (once again), how will they face Ontario voters come election time?

Dion should pull the plug on Harper

It's not going to get any better for Dion. Three out of four national polls this past week put the Liberals and the Conservatives in a virtual tie. Harper's gamble on a tightly managed government focused on the PM has failed. After two years in power Harper is no closer to a majority than on election night in 2006. Meanwhile Stephane Dion has to show some leadership by voting non-confidence in the budget if he is to ever have any hope of becoming PM.

If Dion listens to the Bob Rae faction who want Rae in the House to show his stuff before an election, he is only relinquishing his opportunity to secure a minority government.

The Nanos/SUN media poll released today is evidence enough for me. This shows the Liberals and Conservatives tied at 34%, as did another poll earlier in the week. The Strategic Counsel poll which showed the Conservatives with a 12-point lead and sent shivers through Liberal spines is the clear outlier in the four polls released over the past few days. The other three showed the two main parties in a dead heat. And Nanos called the last the last two federal elections to within a decimal point.

There's everything to lose and nothing to gain for Dion by dithering. The Liberals lost the last election because Martin dithered and dithered and....... The Liberals have a chance at a minority; the best the Conservatives can do is secure another minority. If Dion abstains on or supports the Conservative budget, this will confirm in the minds of most voters that he is afraid of an election.

So it's time to take the plunge. Vote NO, Stephane, and give us a chance to tell Harper what we think of his policies and style of governance. Bring on the election!

Harper on the brink

Election talk is rampant again in Ottawa this week. PM Harper is perceived to be setting traps for Liberal Leader Stephane Dion with the motion to extend the Afghan combat mission to 2011 and a motion calling on the Senate to pass crime legislation by a House of Commons-set deadline. In addition there will be a vote on the budget.

Is Harper really hoping that Dion will vote nonconfidence and precipitate an election or is he hoping that Dion will bob and weave and evade an election? Speculation on Harper's motivations ranges widely. Some perceive that Harper would rather go to a vote now rather than later because his fortunes are on the ebb with an impending economic decline plus a potential shift to the left in the US. Others perceive that Harper is hoping to call Dion's bluff and that Dion will fold again rather than face the electorate. In the background are polls which show that, far from gaining, Harper is having difficulty staying even with the Liberals in the polls despite the widespread perception that Dion is a weak leader.

Time will tell whether Mr. Harper has read the tea leaves correctly.

The other view, and the one I favour, is that Harper has decided he has nothing to gain by waiting and perhaps something to gain by forcing an election now. This assumes that Harper has calculated that he can out-campaign Dion and make up lost ground on the election trail particularly if Dion stumbles as many pundits assume. The pitfall in this gamble is that, if Dion can run a steady even if not a brilliant campaign, Harper may well find himself out of office and facing a Liberal minority in a few months.

Harper a dinosaur on climate change

Stephen Harper pays lip service to the need to address climate change while fighting off any commitments by Canada to meet reduction targets. The latest example was his disgraceful performance at the CHOGM meeting in Africa. Harper personally blocked the adoption of a consensus statement that included a reference to targets and forced through a weaker version that committed no one to anything. By their actions of the past year Harper and his colleagues have in effect rescinded Canada's ratification of the Kyoto Protocol. Meanwhile Australians have tossed Harper's recent partner, PM John Howard, out of office. The new Australian PM has committed to ratify Kyoto and take real action on climate change. When Bush leaves office Harper will be isolated on this and many other issues, if he is still PM at that time. Dare we hope that Canadians will wake up and toss him out of office before then?

How the Liberals can regain power

Last week one poll indicated that Harper was in majority territory. Today a Strategic Counsel poll revealed that the Tories and Liberals are tied. Meanwhile Harper has been smacked in the face by the Mulroney debacle. After stating that he would appoint an independent person to look into the situation, Harper had to backtrack today and announce a full-scale judicial inquiry. Meanwhile Dion makes an ass of himself in QP by asking a question that Harper had already answered. It is now clear that Dion is a millstone around the Liberals' necks. The route back to power is for Dion to relinquish the leadership voluntarily. Then the Liberals need to annoint someone credible as leader by acclamation (Frank MacKenna perhaps?).

Harper eyes the Thanksgiving turkey

Jim Travers in a column in the Star opines that the PM sees an opportunity for easy majority win. http://www.thestar.com:80/article/264261 He speculates that Harper sees in Stéphane Dion what Chrétien saw in Stockwell Day: an opportunity for an easy victory and, yes, a majority. Apparently Harper sees that the soft underbelly of the Liberals is exposed and ripe for an assault. Hence, his baiting of the trap for the Liberals in the fall session while he says publicly he doesn't want an election and expects only a minority. He sees Dion as a turkey ripe for the plucking.

Not smart, Stephen!

Looks like Harper failed to take note of my incisive analysis. He's off again to Afghanistan playing cozy with Karzai and pretending the Canadian role is all about humanitarianism. Tell that to the dead troops.Harper should be distancing himself from Afghanistan as quietly as he can. Instead, he's again publicly identifying himself with the war. Not smart, Stephen!

Will Stephen Harper be a one-term wonder?

Recent polls indicate that the Conservatives and the Liberals are virtually tied in popular support. After an initial surge in the spring around the time of the budget the Cons have dropped back to levels below what they achieved in the last election. While the Liberals have gained no momentum following the election of Stephane Dion, they have not plummeted further as some pundits predicted.

In the first six months of his minority government Stephen Harper was on a roll implementing his famous five priorities. He projected an aura of a knowledgeable decisive leader. Majority government seemed not only possible but probable after the next election. Contrast that with the last six months. Harper was blind-sided by the climate change issue. He bungled the first attempt to deal with it. Then he dumped Rona Ambrose and brought in a menacing pitbull, John Baird, formerly of the Harris government and widely regarded in Ontario as a heartless Minister. Baird's efforts on the climate change file have not advanced Harper's position one iota. If anything, they convey an impression of a government floundering to find its way.

The other big issue that has stuck to Harper and won't let go is Afghanistan. And Harper has made this his own file. O'Connor, Hillier and ilk do his bidding. Harper has seriously miscaculated the mood of the country. He has also alienated a lot of folks by calling anyone who questions the nature of our invovement in Afghanistan anti-patriotic or pro-Taliban. During the detainee debacle he began to look increasingly un-Prime Ministerial.

He has gone from a situation where everything was falling his way to one where the government appears to have lost its way and is at odds with the majority of Canadians on at least two major files. Moreover, both Harper and his Cabinet now come across as bullies. Who likes bullies?

Has Harper squandered his chances at a majority government? Is the best he can now hope for another minority? May even that be beyond his grasp? All things are possible of course and he may yet re-invent himself as a kindly leader with the best interests of all Canadians at heart. But don't count on it. Methinks a majority Harper government is increasingly unlikely and he will have to switch strategy to sustain a minority.

Harper has no shame

The Harper government has hired a former Quebec separatist cabinet minister who played a key role in the 1995 referendum campaign to investigate the polling contracts of the previous Liberal government. Daniel Paillé, the "independent adviser" hired to conduct the investigation, refused to say yesterday whether he is still a separatist.He has been hired to investigate all government practices regarding polls and other public opinion research from 1990 to 2003. He is to look at files, contracts, reports and records.

What kind of vindictive nonsense is this? Harper hires a separatist to look into the polling practices of the Chretien government. Does he have no confidence in his own ability to win election on his own merits? So he has to go digging under every stone to see whether there's any more dirt he can turn up? This would be laughable if it weren't so offensive.