Showdown on Tuesday March 4th

Obama and Clinton go head to head on Tuesday in Texas and Ohio, plus Rhode Island and Vermont. They are expected to split the two smaller states but the outcome in Texas and Ohio is uncertain and critical to the outcome of the Democratic nomination race. Polls show them tied in Texas and virtually tied in Ohio where Clinton has a slight lead.

Only weeks ago Clinton had large leads in both states but these have disappeared after Obama swept the Super Tuesday primaries and then piled up 11 wins in a row. Whether Hillary continues her candidacy hinges on the outcome of the vote in Texas and Ohio. If she loses either state she will have little choice but to fold her campaign and hail Obama as the Democratic nominee. No less an authority than Bill Clinton has stated that Hillary must win both states to stay in the race.

Even if Clinton gets most votes in Texas Obama could end up with more delegates because delegates in Texas will be determined both by the primary vote and by caucuses. Should Hillary secure the most delegates in both Texas and Ohio, she would still trail Obama in delegates and face an almost insurmountable challenge to win the nomination. And there could be a bitter and divisive battle en route to that outcome. This would put the Democrats on the defensive and allow McCain to build a lead before the Democratic candidate could take him on.

Obama sweeps Clinton in Potomac primaries

Obama continues his roll to the White House. Today he beat Clinton easily in the Potomac primaries. The people have spoken again. Obama's the man they want in the White House.

Obama handily beat Clinton to win the Democratic primaries in Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia. He won almost 75 per cent of the vote in D.C. and almost two thirds in Virginia, a state with a large population of military personnel and government workers that was once considered fertile political ground for Clinton.

Hillary has been boxed into a corner. She must win three upcoming primaries in Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania in order to regain momentum and remain competitive. Given that Obama has won seven states in a row, I'm betting that she cannot derail his momentum.

Obama has now piled up victories in 21 states and DC, while Clinton has won in just 12 states.
He has also won more overall votes than Clinton and more "pledged delegates" awarded through the primary process. Hillary is fast on the path to becoming an "also-ran".

Obama on the path to victory

Obama continues to pile up impressive victories in the Democratic primaries and caucuses. Following his impressive showing on Super Tuesday, Obama swept past Clinton in Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington and Maine on the weekend. Hillary is scrambling to block the Obama momentum, having replaced her campaign manager today. It seems likely now that Obama will arrive at the Convention with the most pledged delegates and Hillary's only hope will rest with the so-called superdelegates. If Obama has the most pledged delegates and the superdelegates put Hillary over the top, look out for a grassroots revolt.

I'm betting that it going's to be a tough fight but Obama is going to win the Democratic nomination and after that the Presidency.

Why Hillary Won New Hampshire

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#NHDEM

This link is to the exit poll results at CNN broken down by sex, gender, age etc. The obvious conclusion from examining these results is that older women turned out in larger numbers to put Hillary over the top. They want the first female President.

It will be interesting to see what happens among black Democrats in the southern states.

Note that, despite this heavy tilt among older females who had a large turnout, Hillary won by only 2% over Obama according to this morning's numbers. Remember also that Hillary was heavily favoured to win New Hampshire prior to the Iowa results. The surge in the polls post-Iowa may have actually cost Obama victory in New Hampshire because it no doubt contributed to the heavy turnout of older female voters.