How to replace Harper in next election

During the past two elections the Conservatives have been able to form a minority government with the support of only about a third of Canadian voters. The alignmet of the vote on the right through the merger of the Reform and Progressive Conservative parties while the vote from the center to the left is split several ways has allowed Harper to seize and hang on to power.

Philip Resnick and Reg Whitaker, writing in today's The Tyee, call on the Liberals, New Democrats and Greens to make an electoral deal. This is something I have been advocating for some time. Basically it would involve the caucuses and leaders of the three opposition parties whose principal support lies outside Quebec agreeing amongst themselves not to contest a sufficient number of seats across the country so as not to split the anti-Conservative vote. As Resnick and Whitaker point out,
"roughly 65 percent of Canadian voters do not want a Conservative government for a whole variety of reasons -- its contempt for Parliament and for an independent civil service, its poor environmental policy, its gutting of cultural programs, its weakening of Canada's international position as a respected middle power."

They suggest that these three parties focus on the 60-80 seats where a three-way split in opposition party votes has allowed the Conservatives to win ridings with fewer than 35 percent of the votes, or come within striking distance of defeating current Liberal or NDP sitting members. "The party with the best-placed candidate in 2008 would then be able to run its candidate, with the others stepping down. To ensure the Greens some representation, in particular the seat where its leader chooses to run, the other two parties would give its candidate a clear run."

I think that this is the right way forward. Identify those seats that could be taken from the Conservatives if the other parties cooperated and do just that.

http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2010/02/08/GritsDemsGreens/

Harper on the precipice

There is growing speculation that Harper has squandered his opportunity for a majority. The latest series of polls suggest a possibility that the Liberals could form a minority government if the March budget precipitates a spring election.

The latest seat projections from EKOS Research suggest that the Liberals could get enough seats to displace Harper. Also a new Angus Reid poll shows that 57 per cent of Canadians believe a federal election this year is “very likely” or “moderately likely”. It also shows that 61 per cent of Canadians disagree with the government’s decision to prorogue.

The portrayal of Harper as an anti-democratic tyrant could form the election issue the Opposition has been seeking. They should focus on and hone this perception in the months ahead.

Info from: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/bureau-blog/will-canadians-want-to-throw-the-bums-out-in-a-spring-election/article1447446/

Historic accord-Harper on the way out

Today we witnessed an historic accord that will see the Harper minority government out of power within weeks. A Liberal-NDP coalition with Bloc support! Who have thought it?

Regardless of how this unfolds, Harper's credibility is now shot. He will never regain the confidence of the other three parties and I am extremely doubtful that, if an election occurs with a new Liberal leader, that Harper would get even another minority. However long it takes, Harper has set in motion the momentum that will see him out of office within months.

There have been wily politicians in the past who might have negotiated their way out of this noose but not Harper. He is far too partisan and inflexible and he has infuriated the other three parties to an extent that would have seemed inconceivable a few weeks ago. They now have a common cause- remove Harper from office. And all the result of an unnecessary provocative manouver by Harper.

Tactics such as delayed votes, even proroguing, will not save him. He is "for the hanging", to quote an old phrase. And watch the bloodletting among the Tories once he is ousted. He will bear full responsibility for this debacle. The man who united the right may even provoke its unravelling in due course.