The Election: Day 42 (Liberals are toast)

The Liberals got hit with three polls in the past 24 hours showing Conservative lead growing. Last night I posted the results of the Strategic Counsel poll which showed the Conservatives leading Liberals nationally by 8 points, 37% to 29%. Conservatives were also leading Liberals in Ontario.

National:

Cons 37%
Libs 29%
NDPNDP 15%
BQ 13%

Ontario:

Cons 41%
Libs 40%
NDP 14%

Quebec:

BQ 52%
Libs 21%
Cons 19%


Midday today Decima released their poll showing the Conservatives leading nationally by 9 points:
Cons 36%
Libs 27%
NDP 20%
BQ 11%


Decima CEO Bruce Anderson said the poll suggests the NDP continues to draw the support of voters who might otherwise migrate to the Liberals in a two-party race. Attempts to persuade soft NDP supporters to block the Conservatives by voting Liberal do not, as yet, appear to have worked, he added.

That's particularly evident in Ontario, where the Liberals plunged 10 points to 30 per cent, while the NDP shot up eight points to 26 per cent. The Conservatives edged up two points to 38 per cent, snatching the lead in a one-time Liberal stronghold that's home to one third of the seats in the House of Commons.

In Quebec, Bloc support dropped 11 points to 49 per cent, benefiting the Conservatives, up six points to 15 per cent. The Liberals were stalled at 22 per cent.

Some federalists in Quebec appear to have chosen to support the Tories rather than ``hold their nose'' and vote for the separatist Bloc, Anderson said.

Across Canada, the poll suggested the Liberals were clinging to a narrow four-point lead in major urban centres; outside those areas, the Conservatives led by 16 points. Moreover, the Liberal lead among women voters has evaporated, with 30 per cent saying they would choose the Conservatives and a statistically equivalent 31 per cent supporting the Liberals.

Just before the debate tonight Ipsos Reid released a poll conducted for Global National and CanWest newspapers.In this poll Conservatives led by 11 points. Results were as follows:

Libs 37%
Cons 26%
NDP 18%
BQ 14%
Greens 5%

Cyberpresse.ca(La Presse) reported before the debate that:

"Le dernier sondage quotidien de la firme EKOS traduit une percée si spectaculaire des conservateurs que la firme a décidé d'attendre à ce soir avant de dévoiler ses résultats, afin de doubler son échantillon de 500 répondants.

"Nos données sont si surprenantes qu'il serait irresponsable de les dévoiler à un moment aussi critique que l'aube du débat», a expliqué à La Presse le président d'EKOS, Frank Graves."

Mike Duffy reported on CTV that the EKOS poll showed Conservatives leading Liberals by 43% to 29% (unconfirmed). EKOS decided to poll another day before reporting the results.

With these encouraging polls Harper needed to come through tonight's debate without making a major gaffe. Martin needed to hit one out of the ballpark to halt the Conservative momementum.

Martin came out swinging, targetting Harper but he was quickly cornered by all three of his opponents on the ethics and accountability issue, particulary the issue of the RCMP criminal investigation. Overall, Harper achieved his goal of looking calm, confident and reasonable. Martin tried to corner him (e.g. remove the Notwithstanding clause for federal govt -a potential trap)but didn't succeed (Harper actually handled that one skillfully). Duceppe has had better performances in the past but held his own. Tomorrow night will be his turn. Layton stayed on message: elect NDP MPs to keep the others honest.

Martin must be really desperate to pull that stunt on the Notwithstanding clause. We can look for the Liberals to throw everything including the kitchen sink at Harper during the remaining two weeks of the campaign.

My dominant impression was of a different nature. Paul Martin looked extremely pasty and extremely fatigued despite the make-up. He seemed on the verge of collapse.

For a blow-by-blow commentary on the debate check out Calgary Grit

Here are a couple of other perspectives taken from the Election Talk forum on www.nodice.ca

"Jason" summed it up thus:


"The debate changed little and once the dust settles it'll have very little effect on the momentum of this campaign. Harper didn't wow everyone but he seemed composed and ready to answer questions. Martin on the other hand, although obviously the most rowdy of the four, kept trying to get Canadians to believe that there's a gigantic chasm between his values and Harper's values. With the last SC poll suggesting Canadians identify more with Conservative values that might work against him. Layton was a good debater, perhaps the best, but he came across as too idealistic. Duceppe gave a moderate performance, I think he stressed the "Quebec nation" thing too much."

"Hampsteadgirl" summed up the leaders' performances as follows:

"I don't think that Martin has the stamina for this type of thing.
"He looked tired.
"He looked panicked.
"He looked like the guy who needs to get to the bank before it closes.

"And that Layton was irritating with his infomercial routine.
"Oh Jack, I just can't get this stain out. I've tried red and blue. Oh what to do?"
"Well have you tried a third option. Yes that's right try the third option for a "cleaner conscience and cleaner clothes."

"And Duceppe was balls to the wall.

"And Harper was just a little too comfortable."

Final comment:

Martin's Notwithstanding clause gambit may well blow up in his face. It has all the earmarks of desperation.

Breaking News/ Conservatives lead by 8 points

New Strategic Counsel poll conducted for CTV and the Globe and Mail just released on CTV News (Sunday at 11 PM) shows Conservatives leading Liberals nationally 37% to 29%. Conservatives also lead Liberals in Ontario.

National:

37%
29%
15%
13%

Ontario:

41%
40%
14%

Quebec:

52%
21%
19%

The Election: Day 41

While the leaders warmed up for the debates on Monday and Tuesday, a few salvos were fired. The Liberals claimed that Conservative promises will drive the federal government back into a deficit or force cuts in programs

Conservative Leader Stephen Harper's promises made to date will produce a deficit "of at least $12.4 billion over five years," the Liberal campaign said in an analysis of Tory fiscal plans.

The Liberals say a Harper-led Tory government would have to either rack up huge deficits or slash programs to realize their vision of a smaller government.

The five-year deficit of $12.4 billion would be through the 2010-2111 fiscal year, according to the analysis, which is based on projections provided by Canadian economists.

The Liberals are also arguing that Harper's plan to redress the so-called fiscal imbalance between the federal and provincial governments could bring the deficit to between $23.4 billion and $53.4 billion over the next five years.

Goodale, in a telephone interview with CTV.ca, contends that Harper has not tried to address how this agenda would be funded.

"That question Mr. Harper has not yet even attempted to answer, and that will have a huge bearing on the bottom line," he said. "Otherwise he is leading the premiers down the garden path, implying there is a solution but knowing privately that he can't afford that solution.

The Conservatives were quick to refute Liberal claims. They released a letter of their own from the Conference Board of Canada, insisting they have the figures to back up their platform.They argued the party platform is fully affordable in each year from 2005 through to 2011.

"In summary, we found that the Conservative Party's economic platform is affordable in each fiscal year from 2005-2006 through 2010-2011," Paul Darby, the board's deputy chief economist is quoted as saying.

"In each year there is enough fiscal room to pay down at least $3 billion a year in debt, as in the (government's) fiscal plan."

The organization, which was given access to the entire Tory platform to conduct its analysis, also found that there is substantial surplus in the Conservative fiscal plan.

"Over the five-year forecast horizon to 2010-2011, the CBoC economic and fiscal outlook suggests that there remains $15.7 billion in unallocated fiscal room, over and above the annual debt payment, which provides further cushion to ensure that deficits do not occur due to adverse economic effects," Darby said.

Meanwhile Jack Layton was busy positioning himself as the champion of the working people and enlisted powerful union allies to his election cause. Layton held a big rally in B.C. Saturday to showcase the backing of some of the country's biggest labour organizations, such as the Canadian Union of Public Employees, the United Steelworkers and the Telecommunications Workers Union.

In a weekend interview with the Canadian Press, Stepen Harper suggested that a Tory minority government would be more stable than the one which just crumbled. One of Harper's principal advisers, should he win, is John Hamm, Nova Scotia's retiring Tory premier, who has used "a mixture of country charm and political cunning to survive 29 months in a minority position."

Harper again reached out to the NDP suggesting he could cooperate with them.

"I have a history, in terms of reuniting the (Canadian) Alliance and the Conservative party in being able to bring people together without asking people to sacrifice their most fundamental beliefs," Harper said.

"That's what you have to do in a minority Parliament. You do have to make compromises, but they can't be compromises that ask your own party or other parties to stand on their heads and swallow themselves whole."

His back against the wall as he enters the second round of debates, Paul Martin took some solace from a new Decima Research poll which indicates that uncommitted voters outside Quebec, who could determine the outcome of the close-fought federal election, were more likely to ultimately support the Liberals than the Conservatives.

The Decima Research online voter-tracking study found uncommitted voters in English Canada were less preoccupied than average with scandal and less likely to want change _ all of which gives the Liberals their first ray of hope.

Martin took less solace from a column by Sheila Copps in today's Sun entitled:

"Is that lifeless body Martin's campaign?"

Quote:

"The backdrop for the prime minister's health announcement last week said it all. An apparently lifeless patient on a gurney was laid out for a few stethoscope-clad doctors in white coats. The symbolism of that photo-op was not lost on anyone.

"The body Paul Martin was viewing (actually a med student posing for the cameras) had nothing to do with health care. It was a symbol of everything that has gone wrong with his campaign. No political organizer worth their salt would put the PM in such a position. Headgear, lifeless bodies and eating in front of cameras should be no-fly zones for politicians. (The Bloc's Gilles Duceppe is still remembered for appearing in a hairnet while touring a cheese factory.)

"But more important than the bad photo-op was the impression that Martin was nervously surveying his own demise. Here he was with one of the most important announcements of his post-Christmas relaunch and what we see is a body. What we hear is more talk about the RCMP investigating his government."

The Election: Day 40

Today Paul Martin announced a major initiative to clean up the St.Lawrence River and the Great Lakes. He promised that a Liberal government would invest $ one billion over 10 years to clean up major waterways in Ontario, Quebec and Manitoba. He said the program would tackle toxic hot spots along the St. Lawrence River and the Great Lakes.

The 10-year strategy includes:

$500 million to restore degraded and threatened areas across the entire region of the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence, including Montreal's Technoparc and Hamilton Harbour.


$100 million to identify and address current and growing ecological threats due to population growth, invasive alien species and new substances such as pharmaceuticals.


$200 million for scientific research to better understand the effects of human activity, alien species and climate change on these ecosystems.

$120 million to revitalize Lake Winnipeg and reduce pollutants such as nitrogen and phosphorus.

$80 million to establish the best practices for other key watersheds.

In the first recent glitch in his campaign, Stephen Harper had to clarify the Conservative tax cut proposals. Last night CBC ran a story quoting unnamed Conservative sources as saying that the Conservatives would rescind the tax cut passed by the Liberals in the days before theelection, which included reducing the tax rate for low income earners from 16% to 15%.

Harper confirmed on Saturday that his party would scrap the tax relief plan outlined in the Liberals' mini-budget last November. But he claimed that Canadians would end up with more savings.

Harper said Conservative tax breaks, including a reduction in the GST, would have a more significant impact on Canadian families than the Liberals' proposed tax cuts announced for low- and middle-income earners.

Harper also said the Conservatives would remove the capital gains tax on listed stock donations to charity if they were elected Jan. 23. The measure should make it easier for people to support the charities of their choice, he said.

Later Saturday Stephen Harper told reporters that the Conservative tax cuts would actually total about $49 billion, considerably more than the estimated impact of the Liberal measures.

Gilles Duceppe stepped up his attack on the Liberals over federal funds received by a federalist lobby group before the 1995 Quebec referendum. Martin accused the BQ of trying to create controversy out of long-resolved matter.

Gilles Duceppe's response was that Martin had said the same thing before the sponsorship scandal broke.

"They were saying that about the ad scam, so they're saying that now," Duceppe said.

"It's the same kind of attitude, denying the facts, trying to get away from the facts. I mean, this is typical of the Liberals. Period."

Duceppe has suggested Option Canada, under Martin adviser Claude Dauphin, may have used the some of the funds to pay for a huge federalist rally in Montreal just before the "no" side won the 1995 vote by a razor-thin margin.

Today ended a disastrous week for the Liberals. A new Ipsos Reid poll showed the Conservatives with a four point lead nationally. The poll indicated that, in the lead-up to the second leaders debate, the Tories are on the march to victory on January 23. The poll results were:

Tories (35%, +2 Points), Grits (31%, -1 Point), NDP (18%, Unchanged), Green (5%, Unchanged)
Bloc At 45% In Quebec (-7 Points) Versus Grits (23%, -3 Points) And Surging Tories (19%, +7 Points)

The Ipsos Seat Projection Model suggested a Tory minority as the likely outcome with the following seat projection: Conservatives 129-133 seats, Liberals 87-91, NDP 27-31, Bloc 56-60.

The fate of the election may now hang on the performance of the leaders in the second debates. If Harper can hold his own and come out looking Prime Ministerial and not get knocked off stride, then Martin will be between a rock and a hard place as election day rapidly approaches. This was the week he was going to seize the momentum. Instead, the exact opposite occurred and the Conservatives now clearly have the momentum.

The Election: Day 39 (Scandal plagues Liberals)

The Canadian Press carried a story tonight characterizing the RCMP as "Martin's undeclared but powerful campaign rival."

Quote:

"OTTAWA (CP) - Paul Martin could be forgiven for feeling these days as though he's running against an undeclared but powerful rival: the RCMP.

The Liberal leader's campaign promise of a $500-million package to help the elderly, the disabled and family caregivers was obscured Friday by word police were looking into more allegations of mismanaged tax dollars in Quebec.

While Conservative rival Stephen Harper was detailing plans for child care and Jack Layton described the NDP version of a gun-crime crackdown, Martin found himself confronted with the latest whiff of scandal to plague his flagging campaign.

Martin's daily news conference was dominated by questions about a published report that the RCMP is looking into a controversial grant.

Last month, police interviewed two officials at the Department of Canadian Heritage about the expenditure, which went out to a little-known group called Option Canada, which has since disbanded.

The questions were focused on the distribution of about $300,000 of the total grant.

......

Both Layton and Harper welcomed the chance to hammer home the message that Martin's struggling Liberals are synonymous with scandal.

"If the Liberals are re-elected, this is what Canadians can look forward to, a government pre-occupied with ongoing scandals, corruption and police investigations," Harper said in Bolton, just northeast of Toronto.

"They have to be dragged kicking and screaming and protesting into accepting that anything wrong could possibly have been done," said Layton." "


Meanwhile the Captains Quarters blog explained why the RCMP got interested in cold case.

Quote:

"One of the questions regarding the sudden re-emergence of the Options Canada scandal is what suddenly prompted the RCMP to take another look for the missing $4.8 million. We assumed that the upcoming release of a new book on the controversy over Liberal management of government money, The Secrets of Options Canada by separatist journalist Normand Lester, might have put pressure on them to at least review their data. A source within political and media circles, however, says that the RCMP received more information indirectly from Lester's own investigation.

The book, which will only publish in French, includes juicy details about the apparent theft of $300,000 by somebody who had acted as a bookkeeper to Options Canada, and an attempt to cover this up. Apparently, the bookkeeper and Options Canada signed a hush-hush agreement which allowed the bookkeeper to keep the money as long as he (or she) remained quiet about its origins. Lester got ahold of a copy of this agreement, and somehow, a copy of it was leaked back to Heritage Canada bureaucrats late last year. It was these bureaucrats who, in a CYA move, decided to call in the RCMP.

In other words, the thieves at the top needed to keep the thieves at the bottom from blowing the entire scam -- and foolishly committed an agreement to paper. If this bears out, it would almost certainly mean at least one criminal investigation for corruption, and perhaps another for conspiracy to obstruct justice."



Meanwhile today Jack Layton unveiled proposals to crack down on gun crime. He unveiled a tough-on-crime message Friday, proposing mandatory minimum sentences and a pledge to try 16-year-olds charged with gun offences as adults.

Layton's plan included:

A four-year minimum sentence for illegal possession and sale of restricted weapons such as handguns and automatics.
A four-year minimum sentence for importing illegal guns
Tougher border controls, including arming customs officers.
Supporting reverse-onus legislation for bail on all gun-related crimes and making sure bail conditions are strictly followed.
Layton said he would also change legislation so that young offenders 16 and over who are charged with gun offences are tried as adults.

For more details see the CBC

As Martin was peppered with questions about the latest RCMP investigation,Stephen Harper expressed disappointment in what he called yet another example of an investigation of the Liberals which casts federalism in a "terribly negative light."

"If the Liberals are re-elected, this is what Canadians can look forward to: a government preoccupied with ongoing scandals, corruption and police investigations," said Harper. "We need a government that will clean up those scandals and be able to focus not on damage control, but on the real priorities of ordinary working people and their families." See the CTV

ADSCAM has come back to haunt Martin big time. This time one of the individuals involved, Claude Dauphin, former President of Option Canada, was a close adviser to Martin. Martin is treading water as he attempts to make some headway in his stalled campaign. He tries to move forward by making some policy announcements but almost every day he is hit by new reminders of Liberal mismanagement and corruption.

Martin must be wondering every day, "What will I hit be with next?"

The Election: Day 38 (Tories clearly in lead)

All three parties except BQ made significant policy announcements today.

The Conservatives, now shown by several polls to clearly be in the lead, took a tough stance on law and order, one of the five priorities announed earlier in the week by Harper.

A new Conservative government would "completely overhaul" the criminal justice system by beefing up police forces across the country and by toughening up the sentences served by criminals, Harper said Thursday.

"The revolving door of criminal justice of this current government bears significant responsibility for the tide of gun, drug and gang crime plaguing our cities," Harper stated.

Harper said his government would impose mandatory minimum prison terms of between five and 10 years for major firearms offences, and a minimum sentence of five years for people convicted of possessing a loaded restricted or prohibited weapon, such as a handgun.

There would be no more conditional sentences, or so-called house arrest, for serious gun crimes, he said. The Conservatives would also put more police on the streets.

The Conservatives' platform also includes proposals to:

Shut down the federal gun registry.
Raise the age of consent to 16 from 14 years old to prevent the sexual exploitation of children.
Sentence anyone 14 years old convicted of a serious violent crime or repeat offence as an adult.
Re-establish the Canada Ports Police to combat drug smuggling.
Allow border guards to carry sidearms.
Expand the mandate of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service to allow it to spy overseas.

More details at the CBC

Paul Martin attempted to catch the votes of post-secondary students and their votes today. He announced that a Liberal government would pay half the tuition for students in their first and last years of post-secondary education.The so-called "50-50" plan would pay a maximum of $3,000 in each of those two years for students enrolled in a Canadian college or university.

Meanwhile Jack Layton took aim at both the Liberal and Conservative pledges to gaurantee maximum wait times for specified medical tests and procedures. Layton criticized the Liberal and Tory proposed guarantees, arguing that government should instead spend more money on training doctors and nurses to cut wait times. He announced that the NDP will set aside another $200 million a year to train health workers. Layton said that would fund the equivalent of another 16,000 nursing training spaces.

He also promised that the NDP would introduce a bill to stop federal money from going to provinces that allow for-profit, private health insurance.

In the broader context, new polls released over the past two days clearly show that the Conservatives have the momentum, with a lead of up to 6 points in an EKOS poll released today. The new EKOS poll done for the Toronto Star and La Presse shows the Conservatives leading the Liberals 36% to 30%. This supports a SES poll indicating Conservatives lead the Liberals 36% vs 33%. Tonight a Leger poll, done by Leger Marketing for The Canadian Press, had the Tories at 34 per cent and the Liberals at 32 per cent. The NDP stood at 16 per cent and the Bloc Quebecois at 11.

One significant feature of the recent polls is the Conservatives appear to be making significant inroads in Ontario and have doubled their support in quebec to the 20% range. The increase in Quebec appears to have come at the expense of the BQ. This raises the possibility that the Conservatives might gain 1-3 seats in Quebec. They may also help deny the BQ the magical 50+1% of the popular vote they are seeking.

On a final note, tonight the Globe and Mail broke a story about a possible new (old) scandal that might further ensnare the Liberals in the coming days.The RCMP is looking into a controversial $4.8-million grant that was awarded to a pro-Canada group at the time of the 1995 referendum on Quebec sovereignty. The Option Canada group was headed by Claude Dauphin,who worked in the late 1990s as an aide to Prime Minister Paul Martin, who was minister of finance at the time. The Option Canada "incident" is apparently the focus of an upcoming book by Quebec investigative journalist Normand Lester. No doubt we'll hear more about this in the days ahead.

Tories jump into clear lead

New EKOS poll done for the Toronto Star and La Presse shows the Conservatives leading the Liberals 36% to 30%. This supports SES poll indicating Conservatives lead Liberals 36% vs 33%. For full story go to the Star

Quote:

"Tories jump into clear lead
Jan. 5, 2006. 05:49 AM
SEAN GORDON
OTTAWA BUREAU


OTTAWA—The election campaign has taken a dramatic turn, with the opposition Conservatives jumping into their first real lead over the governing Liberals, a new poll shows.

The survey, conducted by EKOS Research Associates for the Star and La Presse, found that 36.2 per cent of decided voters say they will support the Conservatives, while 30.4 per cent favoured the Liberals.

The NDP is supported by 17.9 per cent of voters, while the Bloc is at 10.4 per cent nationally and the Green party is at 4.7 per cent.

If the numbers hold up, it would mean a Tory minority government.

However, the electorate is still volatile, with 40 per cent of respondents saying they could still change their minds.

Until now, polls have shown the Liberals in the lead or, more recently, the two parties in a virtual tie. The EKOS poll came on the same day an SES poll was released showing the Conservatives leading the Liberals 36 to 33 per cent.

The EKOS poll shows that an effective campaign by Conservative Leader Stephen Harper has combined with a renewed focus on Liberal ethics to reverse the position of the two parties.


Results for Ontario and Quebec are eye-catching. In Ontario, where the Liberals have always enjoyed a big lead, a real dogfight has now emerged, with the Liberals at 38.5 per cent support and the Tories at 35.3.

In Quebec, where Harper has spent an unusual amount of time, the two parties are in almost a dead heat with the Liberals at 21.9 per cent and the Conservatives at 20.2. The Bloc Québécois is well ahead at 43.8, but the increased Tory support has come at the Bloc's expense. The shift shows Quebec voters are eyeing a federalist alternative other than the Liberals.

The poll will be a dispiriting blow to the Liberals, who have to rally their troops for the final push to the Jan. 23 vote."

The party's over for Paul Martin and his Liberal Party

Further evidence for my post yesterday can be found on Bourque today

Quote:

"STICK A FORK IN MARTIN LIBS
Forget what Don Newman and Mike Duffy are glazing you over with, the election has not just begun, it's just about done. Get out the four-pronged eating implement, the party's over for Paul Martin and his Liberal Party. Bourque has learned that a cancerous malaise has infiltrated the highest echelons of his braintrust, a leadership increasingly desperate to gain traction in the waning weeks of the campaign. Senior Martin Libs are privately telling Bourque that "the game is over". Not even "mega-billion dollar policy Hail Maries", as one lifer put it, is buying goodwill from an increasingly cynical electorate. One key source, a Martin heavyweight in the Toronto financial community, surprised Bourque overnight with an email touting a potential post-Martin leadership candidate. "The writing's on the wall, Pierre, you were right, but (name omitted) is the real deal, you watch, his time is coming !" Further evidence of grave concern at the top is witnessed by a very well-placed operative inside the Liberal War Room who claims a certain degree of discord is beginning to permeate the front-line troops based on increasingly distressful poll results. "Pierre", noted one regional campaign kingpin who prefers to remain in the weeds, "the national campaign has stalled and HQ is not taking input from us, it's very frustrating !" Add to that, news from Tom Clark, CTV's top political observer, who told his eggs-and-bacon audience this morning that the Liberal campaign team has a mole who is leaking policy and platform information to the Conservatives and the media, something Bourque told Martin bullwark David Herle in an email three days ago. For skulduggery lovers, the plot thickens. For Martin Liberals, sadly, the plot sickens. "Only a miracle can save us", admitted one longtime Lib MP. One word of caution, Bourque admires the Liberals' incredible ability to fight back from the precipice. Herle and his key folks are heroic fighters, they have every quality needed to turn this thing around. As a well-known TV pundit put it to Bourque, "these guys haven't won as often as they have because they roll over when things get tough." Developing ..."

The Election: Days 36 and 37

The leaders plunged back into the campaign full-time this week, mindful that the election is only three weeks away.

Kicking off the second half of the election campaign Monday, Harper said his party would pursue five main priorities in government: passing the Federal Accountability Act; cutting the GST; cracking down on crime; increasing financial assistance for parents; and working with the provinces to establish a wait-times guarantee for patients.

On Tuesday Harper said Conservatives would end the current partisan polling practices of the Liberal government by:
-the banning of verbal-only contract reports, and the automatic publication of all government public research within six months;
-commissioning an independent review of government public opinion research practices;
-ensuring open tender for all government advertising and polling contracts.

Harper took aim at the Earnscliffe research and communications firm, which has employed many senior Liberals with close ties to Mr. Martin, including David Herle, the Liberal campaign director. Harper noted the Auditor-General found Earnscliffe was paid to provide verbal advice to Mr. Martin when he was finance minister, a practice the Tories would ban.

Martin launched the second phase of the election campaign with a fiery attack on the Conservatives and the Bloc during a campaign stop in Winnipeg on Tuesday.Martin hammered at the theme of different values, saying he and Conservative Leader Stephen Harper have diverging plans for the future of the nation.

"Mr. Harper and I differ on child care and gun crimes, we differ on medicare, on tax cuts and foreign affairs. We differ on issues right across the full spectrum of policy," he said.

Fearing defeat, Martin has adopted a schizophrenic campaign approach. On the one hand he's putting out some Liberal policy announcements but these are kind of BTW as he launches an assault on Harper comparing him to Mike Harris and other unseemly comparisons.

Greg Weston had an excellent article on Martin's assault on Harper. Read it at
Weston

Here's a sample:

'Big Scare' is back
By Greg Weston

WINNIPEG -- Dawn has barely broken over Manitoba after a cruel 5 a.m. flight from Ottawa, but Paul Martin is in full fighting form on the stump, waking up a breakfast crowd of local execs with one of his most fiery speeches of the federal election campaign.

On this day, the topic that seems to have stirred the PM's passion from so much sleep deprivation is clear: Paul Martin is wonderful. Stephen Harper is a menace to life as we know it.

How quaint. The prime minister who came to power promising to clean up politics is now seeking re-election as a walking negative-attack ad.

For the past five weeks, the Liberal strategy has been largely to sit on the sidelines in the smug hope that the more voters saw of Harper, the less they would like him and that the rest of the Conservative campaign would self-destruct in a hail of political stupidity and loose lips for which the party is notorious.

It didn't happen.

Instead, the Conservatives have run a relatively gaffe-free and cleverly orchestrated policy-a-day campaign designed specifically to keep the media spotlight focused on the platform promises of the party and off the scintillating personality of its leader.

So far, the Conservative strategy seems to be working as planned and the Liberals are now clearly worried to the point of desperate measures.

With the latest polls showing the Grits sliding into a virtual dead-heat with the Conservatives, Martin launched his party's campaign Plan B here yesterday and let's just say it is not pretty.

Clear answer

The PM opened his breakfast speech to the Manitoba blue-chippers promising to set out his vision for the future of the country, and provide a clear answer to the rather salient election question: Why would anyone vote for the Liberals?

Instead, Martin served up 27 impassioned minutes of why Canadians shouldn't vote for Stephen Harper (not including the obvious blood dripping from his Conservative fangs).

Sad to say, folks, for the second election in as many years, the Big Scare is back and coming to a Liberal rally near you.

If you believe the PM, voters have only one choice on Jan. 23 and it is between "Stephen Harper's goal of a fend-for-yourself Canada and my vision of a country in which we strive together as a society toward a common good."

If you believe the leader of the party that stole our money, he alone sees Canada "as a success, a nation with tremendous potential, but Mr. Harper speaks to what he views as its failings."

If you believe the former finance minister who once slashed funding for the provinces, now giving more federal money to provincial daycare programs will ensure "Canadian children ... can enter school ready to learn and leave school ready to succeed.

Pure hypocrisy on Martin's part of course, but when you're desperate you want the voters to fear your opponent, the Big Bad Wolf. That's all right, Paul. They are readying your bungalow in Barbados for January 24th.

The Sun also did an in-depth interview with Martin ranging widely over many topics. Here is Greg Weston's
summary of Martin's postion(s):

methinks there is something deeper at work here, something fundamental that would surely sap any prime minister of his essential fighting passion: In his frantic attempts to be everything to everyone, Martin is now very much at risk of becoming nothing to anyone -- including himself.

Talking weather vane

Forget the Paul Martin Jr. that most Canadians came to know and admire as the trusted penny-pinching finance minister who presided over the elimination of the country's crippling deficits, and helped usher in an era of growth and surpluses.

The man sitting in the Prime Minister's Office yesterday sounds more every day like a talking weather vane, swinging around wildly in whatever direction the polls may blow.

One minute he is the Liberal leader more to the left than Jack Layton, throwing billions of dollars of taxpayers' money at every group and any cause the Grit strategists have determined might steal votes from the New Democrats.

But mostly Martin sounds as though he spent the Christmas hiatus practising his best imitations of Stephen Harper, apparently hoping to confuse voters into thinking the Liberals and Conservatives speak with the same voice on popular Tory platform issues.

After more than a decade in government, for instance, Martin is suddenly a born-again law-and-order crusader, a champion of crime issues the Tories have been espousing for years to nothing but heckling from the Grit benches.

For years, it has been something of a Liberal tenet to resist Conservative calls to throw more criminals in prison for longer sentences, arguing that ridding our streets of violent crime is far more complicated than rounding up some punks and throwing away the key.

But now that a rash of gruesome street shootings in Toronto are making voters everywhere demand action, Martin is of a whole new mind. Or someone else's mind.

"Harper has said there should be increases in punishment -- I couldn't agree more," Martin said yesterday. "There is no difference of opinion in that area."

Martin announced plans Wednesday to guarantee timely access to medicare by reducing wait times for key medical procedures. The Liberal Party's "Canada Health Care Guarantee" includes $100 million over five years to enlist 1,000 new family doctors.
It also outlines a new national cancer strategy worth $300 million over five years to cut down on cancer wait times and improve the quality of care.

New Democrat Leader Jack Layton announced a plan Wednesday that would provide "equitable access to medically necessary prescription drugs," for Canadians. Layton said he will introduce the national prescription drug plan in the next parliament. It would be worth $1 billion per year, and would cover 50 per cent of the cost of prescription drugs above $1,500 per year per person.

This week Layton has been sharpening his criticism of the Liberals."To get the kind of Canada you want, you've got to vote for the Canada you want," Layton said on Tuesday. Layton is expected to repeat that message in various forms until the Jan. 23 election, trying to convince NDP voters not to switch to the Liberals just to beat the Conservatives. Part of his strategy is simply to make sure he can still be heard, and isn't forced to the sidelines. So he is sharpening his criticisms and taking issue with any effort to narrow the debate.

"It's frankly offensive for Martin to tell Canadians that they're limited to two choices, that they're limited to a choice between corruption and Conservatives."

Meanwhile, following several polls on the weekend showing the Conservatives and the Liberals in a dead heat,the latest SES poll shows the Conservatives in the lead at 36% vs 33% for the Liberals.

Unless something dramatic occurs between now and election day, Martin is toast as Liberal leader. Having spent a decade undercutting Chretien in order to seize the crown, Martin's record of one minority and then a loss to Harper will have the Liberals hungry for a replacement.

Names being bandied about include McKenna, Manley, Cauchon, Ignatieff (a ridiculously extreme long shot). Personally, I think Brian Tobin will be hard pressed to resist the lure of a chance to be PM. If he enters the race he will be a strong contender.

If Martin hangs on by his teeth to eke out a reduced minority, he will probably be able to hang on to fight another election or leave at a time of his choosing. If Harper gets a minority, it's curtains for Martin despite his hold on the party machinery.

The Globe and Mail ran a story on leadership rumblings within the Liberal ranks.

McKenna, Manley already laying groundwork for Liberal leadership?

By JANE TABER
January 3, 2006
Globe and Mail

The body isn't even warm yet, and already there are at least two senior Liberals -- Frank McKenna and John Manley -- who insiders say are quietly gearing up their leadership campaigns. The fact this is happening is an indication that some Liberals think Paul Martin's campaign is in deep trouble.

Insider reports indicate the wheels are coming off the Liberal campaign as the smell of fear begins to percolate through the ranks. Unofficially others are considering possible leadership bids in the event that Martin loses the election, a possibility that becomes increasingly more likely each day.

The Globe and Mail mentioned McKenna and Manley. Others are assessing their options and making phone calls to those they trust.

Conclusion:

The Liberal party needs to rebuild so we can have a real choice in this country. The first step in achieving that is to elect a Conservative minority, held in check on social policies by the NDP. The second step is for the Liberals to send Martin packing to Barbados or wherever else his ships are registered. The third step is to pick a new leader who can provide a reasonable alternative to Harper in the next election.

The Election: Day 35/ Goodale covering for PMO???

Is Goodale covering for PMO???

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

There's something fishy in the Income Trust scandal pool. Yesterday Ralph Goodale said the PM didn't know about the income trust decision before he (Goodale)announced it. This statement was made a couple of days after Martin said he knew of the income trust decision in advance of the announcement. Who's telling the truth, Goodale or Martin? Or is Goodale trying to distance his boss and PMO officials from possible involvement in the scandal? Read the stories and form your own opinion.

"Goodale takes heat off Martin
"Says PM not told of income trust plan

Probe to be key in campaign's final push
Jan. 2, 2006. 01:00 AM
LES WHITTINGTON
OTTAWA BUREAU


OTTAWA—Finance Minister Ralph Goodale is trying to get Paul Martin out of the line of fire in the income trust controversy as the Liberals and other parties revive their full-scale election campaigns today.

Martin acknowledged on Friday that as Prime Minister he was privy to the decision-making in advance of the income trust announcement by the finance department on Nov. 23. The handling of that announcement has led to an RCMP probe of possible illegal leaks to investors.

But Goodale said yesterday, while he and Martin discussed the tax treatment of income trusts before the finance department announced its decision, the Prime Minister was not aware of the final position the government was going to take.

"It's interesting, I had a conversation with the Prime Minister and we talked through the options and the ideas — we could do this and we could do that," Goodale said on CTV's Question Period yesterday.

"And my last conversation with him (before the announcement), we were not at a final decision-making point," Goodale explained. " See the Toronto Star


Compare this with an earlier story On December 31.



"Martin urges voters not to jump to conclusions
Dec. 31, 2005. 01:00 AM
LES WHITTINGTON
OTTAWA BUREAU


OTTAWA—Paul Martin says he knew in advance of the finance department's decision in November on the tax treatment of income trusts, making him one of the people who may be interviewed by police as the RCMP investigates a possible illegal leak of information to investors.

"Well, I knew and I'm one of them," Martin said yesterday when asked who in the Prime Minister's Office had advance knowledge of the government's Nov. 23 announcement. "

And on December 30 CBC reported:

"Martin says PMO knew about income trust announcement
Last Updated Fri, 30 Dec 2005 18:48:52 EST
CBC News See the CBC
Paul Martin said he and some other people in the Prime Minister's Office had advance knowledge of a government decision on income trusts before it was made public, something he says isn't out of the ordinary.

The RCMP is investigating opposition allegations the decision on tax policy regarding income trusts was leaked prior to its Nov. 23 announcement. Opposition politicians point to a flurry of market trading in the hours before the announcement and claim inside information benefited Liberal-friendly traders and investors.

Martin, who spoke following a campaign stop at a Montreal-area mosque, said he was one of a number of people in the PMO who were informed of the decision before it was made public.

"I knew and I'm one of them. The fact is, that the people who would be on a need-to-know basis would have that information," said Martin. "

^

The Election: Day 34 (New Year's Day Gift for Conservatives)

New Ipsos Reid poll, reported tonight by Global National, confirms Conservatives are ahead nationally and in Ontario.

According to the survey, if a federal election were held tomorrow, 33 percent would cast their ballot in support of the Conservatives, up 1 point from last week.

32 percent would vote for the Liberals, down 1 point

18 per cent would vote for the NDP, that's up 2 percent.

The Green Party remains unchanged at 5 percent.

Perhaps of greatest interest are the results for Ontario which show the Conservatives at 38%, the Liberals at 36% and the NDP at 19%

Currently four in ten Canadians agree with the statement “I'd be comfortable voting for Stephen Harper and the Conservatives to form the government in the next election because we'll probably have another minority which will keep them in check” - 44 percent of Ontarians agree with this statement.

Just one-third of Canadians now agree with the statement “I'd be comfortable voting for Paul Martin and the Liberals in the next election because they will govern very differently next time due to the lessons they learned from the Gomery Inquiry”

That's down 7 percent from a week ago, when Paul Martin garnered more support.

As Harper and the Conservatives continue to build positive momentum nationally (up 8 points), momentum for Paul Martin and the Liberals has dropped substantially (down 14 points) and is now strongly negative nationally (down 35 points).


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The latest Ipsos Reid poll, showing Conservatives ahead of the Liberals both nationally and in Ontario, is sad news for the Liberals. The Liberals have miscalculated on the income trust "scandal". They are going to be hit hard on the integrity issue in the next three weeks. The corruption baggage will cost them the election. Look for the Opposition leaders to be gunning for Martin in the next set of debates.

Simply put, they should have pulled Goodale immediately when the RCMP criminal investigation became public. Quick action might have limited the damage. Now they're stuck with toughing it out and taking repeated hits on the integrity issue.

http://cardinal47.blogspot.com/

The Election: Day 33 (Liberal collapse confirmed)

The reports today on the SES poll indicate that Martin's approval rating dropped 18 points in 24 hours. This means he's in serious trouble in terms of turning the campaign around. Now all the corrurption baggage is going to come back to haunt him. The bottom line is that the Liberals have not yet been punished by the voters for their earlier misdeeds. That reckoning will probably occur on January 23.

The Liberal decision not to have Goodale step aside, coupled with the announcement of the RCMP criminal investigation, has had immediate dramatic negative effects for the Liberals. The SES poll indicated a statistical tie between the Liberals and the Conservatives and a precipitous drop in Martin's personal approval rating of 18 points in 24 hours.

A new Decima poll released today confirms that the Liberals and Conservatives are tied as they enter the last phase of the campaign.

The survey by Decima Research pegs Liberal support at 32 per cent of those who are likely to vote, compared to 30 per cent who say they intend to back the Conservatives. Given the poll's margin of error of 3.1 percentage points, the two parties are in a statistical dead heat.

New Democrats are backed by 18 per cent of the 1,020 respondents to a telephone survey between Dec. 29 and Dec. 30, while 14 per cent say they will vote for the Bloc Quebecois.

The biggest regional shift is being felt in Ontario, where the Liberals' once-commanding lead has shrunk to just four percentage points over the Conservatives at 40-36.

A Conservative minority will put pressure on Martin to leave. His departure is necessary in order for the Liberal party to heal and rebuild itself. Meanwhile the minority status will prevent the Conservatives from implementing radical changes to social programs. This should be the preferred outcome of all who are Liberal at heart but fed up with the shenanigans of the current regime.

The Bombshell (continued)

Martin is getting dodgy on the issue as he tends to do when the pressure builds. See
CBC

"Martin said he and some other people in the Prime Minister's Office had advance knowledge of a government decision on income trusts before it was made public, something he says isn't out of the ordinary.

"I knew and I'm one of them. The fact is, that the people who would be on a need-to-know basis would have that information," said Martin.

"When asked if the alleged leak could have come from the PMO, the prime minister didn't give a direct answer.

"The fact is we are dealing with opposition allegations. And that's all we are dealing with. Opposition allegations during an election campaign," said Martin. "The RCMP obviously have a responsibility to follow up on matters such as this. That's their job."

"Martin said he believes the spike in trading is simply a reflection of how markets operate.

"There are a lot of people who are essentially ... saying out there that what you're dealing with is ... simply the way that ... markets function," said the prime minister.

Does Martin really expect us to believe that "the spike in trading is simply a reflection of how markets operate"??? Have you looked at the charts of trading that afternoon? "simply the way that ... markets function" Who comes up with these pathetic lines for him???

For those who are still unclear on what appears to have happened, the CBC has a little primer on Income Trusts on its website .

Here's an extract:

"What suggests that an advance leak of Goodale's announcement may have taken place?

Goodale did not make his announcement public until after 5 p.m. on Nov. 23, well after the stock markets had closed. But earlier in the day, especially during the last two hours of the trading day, there were noticeable spikes in the trading volumes and share prices of many income trusts and dividend-paying stocks – sometimes triple their normal volumes. These would be the kind of securities that would be expected to benefit from the type of announcement Goodale made later that day. Of the 10 most actively traded stocks on Nov. 23, eight were income trusts, trust candidates, or dividend-paying stocks. All eight went up between 5 and 7 per cent that day.

Is there general agreement that a leak did, in fact, take place?

The opposition parties and some market watchers looked at the trading patterns and saw something that suggested that some people knew something in advance. Forensic accountant Al Rosen, for instance, said ,"The volumes and prices are just screaming at you to say just a minute, someone knew more than the ordinary little bit of stuff." How big was the scream? One example: shares of BCE, which pays a rich dividend, had their biggest advance in four years on Nov. 23.

Christopher Thomas, whose company Measured Markets provides early warnings of unusual stock movements, agreed that the signals were flashing that day. "Statistically, these stocks were behaving as though something unusual was going on which the world at large was probably not aware of." "

My conclusion:

Why should Goodale resign? Because as Minister he was responsible for ensuring the security of tax sensitive policy/program changes until they were made public so that no one benefitted unfairly through advance (insider) knowledge. Some time between when the policy was scrambled together on the evening of November 22 and the time of the Minister's announcement it appears that someone leaked details of the Minister's pending announcement. The RCMP does not launch a criminal investigation unless it has reason to believe something illegal occurred. Does that mean Goodale himself personally did anything wrong? No. Does it mean he should resign? Yes, under the doctrine of Ministerial responsiblity.

The Election: Day 32 (The Bombshell)

Yesterday I posted the following question on nodice.ca

Should Ralph Goodale resign pending the results of the criminal investigation? Some precedents for Ministerial resignations can be found at http://david-akin.electionblog.ctv.ca/default.asp?item=123896

There have been numerous responses with insults traded back and forth betwenn Liberal and Conservative loyalists. It is interesting to compare these posts with the positions taken by the party leaders.

Yesterday Martin said Goodale will not step down.

Jack Layton said that Goodale's decision not to step aside speaks to his judgment:
"It is blindingly obvious, based on ample precedent, that when a minister's department is under criminal investigation ... the minister should step aside," said Layton.

In an interesting twist, Stephen Harper said that it doesn't matter whether the finance minister steps down during the probe, because the issue goes beyond whether Goodale was involved.

The latest incident follows the pattern of Liberal corruption and entitlement, he said.

"It's the final nail," Harper said. "Ralph Goodale can stay on and run around in his limousine until Jan. 23. What's important is that he and his government are run out of office. This government has not earned the benefit of the doubt."

Interesting, eh? Last night I posed the question: Is this a tempest in a teapot, or could it be the "tipping point" of the campaign?

With all the insults back and forth many bloggers were missing the big picture. The Liberal campaign is collapsing.

Bourque reports this morning on the latest CPAC/SES tracking. As you know until now the CPAC/SES tracking has shown a significant lead for the Liberals. Well,look at these results:


"CPAC-SES Dec 23-28-29: Lib 35% CP 34% NDP 14% BQ 13% GP 5%
CPAC-SES: LIB 35 % CON 34 %
Call it Paul Martin's "Unlucky 13". Bourque has learned that the consistent bombshell reports about negative Liberal Party doings (the dog doo-doo's, the popcorn, the RCMP criminal investigations, etc), most of which are consistenly first reported to the nation on this website, is having a devastating impact on the Liberal Party, both in terms of insider morale and in current polling standings. Senior Paul Martin Liberals, the usual suspects, are now second-guessing their overall election campaign tactics and are also second-guessing each other, a tragic and stunning turn of events for a majestic party that has held government for most of the past 13 years. According to insiders well-placed to understand the nuances within Martin's braintrust, Bourque has also learned that key campaign personnel are at risk of being replaced in an increasingly desperate attempt to maintain control of the public agenda, and more importantly, the key messaging that is driving this election, something that has eluded Team Martin since Day One of this election. Now, according to SES, "The announcement of a RCMP criminal investigation of a possible tax leak from Finance Minister Ralph Goodale's office has initially had an impact on the political environment. CPAC-SES tracking has the Liberals and the Conservatives statistically tied for the first time in the campaign. Nationally, the Liberals have 35%, the Conservatives 34%, the NDP 14%, the BQ 13% and the Green Party 5%. Overnight, the CPAC-SES one day measure on trust and vision for Canada has realised a noticeable drop for Paul Martin."

I asked last night whether this incident would be a "tempest in a teapot, or could it be the tipping point of the campaign?" These results certainly suggest that it may well be the tilting point that sees Martin go down to defeat on January 23.

The Election: Day 30

As Stephen Harper resumed campaigning over the past two days in British Columbia with major announcements pertaining to his defence platform and promises to increase the military presence in B.C., a couple of events occurred elsewhere which, if they snowball, could begin the unravelling of the Liberal campaign.

The first, reported in the previous posting on this blog, concerned the resignation of the executive vice president of the Liberal Party of Canada (Ontario). Mike Klander stepped aside after bloggers fanned controversy over tasteless remarks on Klander's blog about NDP candidate Olivia Chow.

Then this afternoon a letter from RCMP Commissioner Guiliano Zaccardelli to NDP finance critic Judy Wasylycia-Leis confirmed that the RCMP has launched a criminal investigation into the release of information by the Department of Finance, related to a government announcement on taxation of income trusts. Earlier information posted on various blogs and carried in the mainstream media had indicated that information about the Finance Minister's pending announcement that income trusts would not be taxed and certain dividends given favourable tax treatment had been leaked to insiders who drove up trading in these stocks earlier that day. There was every indication that some individuals had profited substantially as a result of leaks from the Minister's office or the Department of Finance.

Earlier when these allegations surfaced the government had dismissed them as baseless. Today's announcement by the RCMP Commissioner that a criminal investigation is being launched led to renewed calls for Minister Goodale to step down pending the results of the investigation. In an interview with Peter Mansbridge on the National, Ralph Goodale denied any wrongdoing and rejected calls for his resignation. Despite persistent questioning by Mansbridge on why Goodale would not follow precedent and step aside while the investigation is underway, Goodale stuck to the line that the RCMP "have said they are looking into this matter because of the seriousness of the allegation. They have, at the same time, said they have no information, no evidence of any wrongdoing on the part of anyone - most particularly on my part - and quite frankly if I were to resign under those circumstances I believe I would only feed allegations that are out there in the context of a very political situation."

The NDP and Conservative Leader Harper have both called for Goodale's resignation. Already comparisons are being made to ADSCAM. The RCMP investigation could not have come at a worse time for the Liberals. These new allegations, which have warranted a criminal investigation, set the scene for a renewed focus on the Quebec advertising scandal as the campaign enters the second phase post-Xmas.

Will this derail the Liberal plans for the second phase of the campaign? Will the Opposition parties be able to build on this to seize the momentum in the days ahead? Stay tuned.

The Mike Klander fiasco

Thanks to Pierre Bourque's website for drawing our attention to the mad musings by Mike Klander, Executive Vice President of the federal Liberals in Ontario. The details of Klander's nutty bloggings are available here on Angry in the Great White North's site. Worth a read just to confirm how extreme some of the so-called prominent liberals are.

Additional details can be found on Stephen Taylor's blog . Taylor, not given to hyperbole, headlines his story thus:

"Bigger than beer and popcorn? You bet. This should sink the Liberals"

Canoe News reports tonight that Klander has resigned from his position of Executive Vice President Of the Liberal Party of Canada (Ontario):

Liberal exec resigns after comparing NDP's Olivia Chow to a dog on his blog

By TARA BRAUTIGAM

TORONTO (CP) - A high-ranking official within the Liberal Party of Canada resigned Monday after he made disparaging comments on his blog about NDP Leader Jack Layton and his wife, NDP candidate Olivia Chow.

Mike Klander, executive vice-president of the federal Liberal party's Ontario wing, stepped down after photographs of Chow, NDP candidate for the Toronto riding of Trinity-Spadina, and a chow chow dog were posted on his blog dated Dec. 9 under the heading Separated at Birth.

The blog also contained an offensive reference to Layton.

The Election: Day 26

With the leaders having retired from the field of battle to buy presents and eat Xmas turkey, I had not intended to post on the election today. However, the conflicting headlines in national newpapers reporting on duelling polls prompted me to comment on these polls.

Here are the headlines:

Tories neck and neck with Liberals, poll says (Post)

Tory campaign failing to gain traction with voters, poll (Globe)

Liberals gain some ground (Globe)

Tories recover in polls; stage set for tight race (Citizen)


The National Post/Ottawa Citizen stories are reporting on a nationwide survey by Ipsos Reid conducted for CanWest newspapers and Global National this week. According to Ipsos Reid, the nearly month-old federal election campaign has tightened into a close race between the Liberals and Tories and would likely produce a minority Conservative government if the vote was held now. It shows that Stephen Harper's Tories, after dropping in public favour during the early days of the campaign, have recovered their footing and are now neck-and-neck with Paul Martin's Liberals nationally. Moreover, because the Tories have turned the vote-rich Ontario battleground into a draw with the Liberals, Ipsos Reid says a Tory victory "would be the probable outcome" if voters went to the polls today.

Ipsos Reid president Darrell Bricker cautioned yesterday that the electorate is very volatile and said:

"It's going to go right down to the wire, just like the last time," he said.

According to this poll, the Liberals have the support of 33 per cent of decided voters, while the Conservatives stand at 32 per cent -- a statistical tie. Among the other parties, Jack Layton's NDP is supported by 16 per cent of voters, Gilles Duceppe's Bloc Quebecois is at 13 per cent, and Jim Harris's Green party is at five per cent. Among all Canadians, 12 per cent are undecided or refused to say who they would vote for.

The rise in Tory fortunes has been most evident in Ontario, where they are supported by 38 per cent of voters (up from 28 per cent in mid-December). The Liberals have dropped from 47 per cent to 40 per cent in the province.

In B.C., however, the Liberals are gaining -- rising from 33 per cent to 40 per cent. They have won most of those intended votes from the Green party (down to five per cent from eight per cent) and from the Tories (down from 33 per cent to 30 per cent.)

Before drinking a toast to these results, however, Stephen Harper and his colleagues should take a look at the latest Strategic Counsel poll which accounts for the headline in the Globe and Mail. The survey found that 36 per cent of voters prefer the Liberals, up from 33 per cent Thursday, compared to 29 per cent for the Conservatives, who are down one point. The NDP is at 17 per cent -- down one -- while the Bloc Québécois has also dropped a point to 13 per cent. The Globe opined that Stephen Harper's policy-heavy election campaign is no better at capturing voters' imaginations than the Liberal effort.

According to The Strategic Counsel survey, 25 per cent of Canadians say the Liberals are running the best campaign, up six percentage points from Dec. 5-6. By contrast, 23 per cent think the Tories have the best campaign, down from 26 per cent, while 16 per cent of Canadians think the NDP is making the best effort, up two points.

The Ottawa Citizen story on the Ipsos Reid poll is available at the Citizen. The Globe story on the Strategic Counsel poll is available at the Globe.

The Election: Day 25

It appears that the party leaders will be laying down their arms until January 2, with the exception of occasional local appearances next week. We can then expect campaigning to resume with a vengeance. Pundits speculate about the campaign moving into a negative phase after the relatively civil first phase.

Yesterday I mentioned the preview of probable Liberal attacks available at blogger Stephen Taylor's site. Today this burst over the mainstream media, with the Liberals claiming that the material was intended for "internal use" by Liberal candidates. .

One of the storyboards showed a photo of Harper whispering to Duceppe under a headline of Harper-Duceppe coalition. Apparently the photo in question was taken during the Holocaust memorial last spring on Parliament Hill. The event was also attended by Liberal Leader Paul Martin and NDP Leader Jack Layton.

Harper expressed contempt for any plan to use the photos.

"I think it's beyond tasteless. You know, all party leaders attended the Holocaust memorial," Harper said Friday. "This is a pretty solemn event with Holocaust survivors, and to use that photo to imply that Mr. Duceppe and I would share some kind of agenda other than obviously opposing the Holocaust I think is disgraceful."

Harper denied any plan to form a coalition with the Bloc in a new Parliament. He said the two parties don't share the same motives.

"We may co-operate on the odd issue, but even there we're not naive," he said. "We understand that, even when the Bloc agrees with us, their motives are very different."

Harper said forming a coalition is unrealistic, and that he would govern on an issue-by-issue basis, co-operating with "individuals or parties that are absolutely committed to the unity of the country."

Meanwhile Liberal leader Paul Martin was pledging cooperation with provinces under the banner of "robust federalism". He promised closer co-operation with the provinces in a number of areas, including post-secondary education and training and international negotiations.

He described "robust federalism''as working together. Martin was responding to a letter from Premier Ralph Klein to the three main party leaders earlier this week on behalf of his fellow premiers, asking the Liberals, Conservatives and NDP where they stand on five questions. The topics were education and training, transportation, international relations, trade relations and fiscal balance.

Chantal Hebert in today's feature article does an excellent job of analyzing the election to date. After categorizing the current Conservative campaign as more "progressive" than "conservative", she summarizes the current state of the Liberals thus:

"It is because they have failed to keep up with the times that the federal Liberals are no longer holding their own in Quebec. In this campaign, they are fighting the last war and shooting themselves in the foot almost daily in the process.

"Two decades after patriation of the Constitution, the federal Liberal party is a spent force in Quebec. The days when it competed fiercely with the sovereignist movement for the best and brightest of Quebecers are behind it.

"And that means that, in the not-so-distant future, Canadians will have to tap other sources than the dried-out Quebec reservoir for national leadership."

Ouch! That's telling it like it is. While Jack Layton came from behind in the English debate to sharply improve his personal image with Canadian voters, Stephen Harper has accomplished his objective for the first phase of the campaign. He has advanced solid policy proposals on a wide spectrum of issues. He has waged a positive "Here's why you should vote for us" campaign and refrained from the temptation to fall into the trap of waging solely a negative campaign on the Liberal corruption issue. Meanwhile Paul Martin has been floundering. The Liberal campaign has been lacklustre. Even though the Liberals still lead slightly in the polls, the Liberals and Conservatives are tied outside Quebec and in Quebec the Liberals face the further loss of a possible ten seats or more to the Bloc.

All of this means that the Liberal campaign will likely turn increasingly dirty in January as they attempt to replay the 2004 election by demonizing Harper. But this time Harper has laid a solid policy foundation and it will not be so easy for the Liberals this time. And Harper still has the card of Gomery and Liberal corruption up his sleeve to play when the situation demands it.

If I were Paul Martin, I would be passing a restless Christmas as I pondered the probability of at best a reduced Liberal minority come January 23 and quite possibly a Conservative minority government.

The Election: Day 24

Stephen Harper chose to end the pre-Christmas campaign phase with a major announcement on positioning Canada to assert its sovereignty in the Arctic. The announcement was linked to recent stories that American submarines have been venturing into Canadian waters without Ottawa's permission. Harper said protecting and defending national sovereignty is Ottawa's most important duty, and his government would invest in the military to ensure that would happen.

"Paul Martin talks eloquently about defending national sovereignty, but the reality hasn't matched the rhetoric," Harper said about the Liberal leader. "When it comes to the United States, Mr. Martin says he calls them as he sees them, but when it comes to American passage through Canada, he doesn't actually see anything. You don't defend national sovereignty with flags, cheap election rhetoric and advertising campaigns. You need forces on the ground, ships in the sea and proper surveillance."

Harper said the Conservatives will build three heavy-duty, armed icebreakers as well as a new port for them near Iqualuit.

The estimated total cost of the Conservatives' Arctic commitments is about $5.3 billion over five years.

Martin attempted to dismiss Harper's platform, saying it has been government policy for a long time. But his rationale was rather weak. He claimed the plan was too expensive and questioned the need to address any threats in the North.

The Conservative plan includes the following elements:

Station three new armed naval heavy icebreakers, to be made in Canada, in the area of Iqaluit, which will include 500 regular force personnel for crews and support and will be capable of carrying troops.

Build a new military/civilian deep-water docking facility in the Iqaluit area.

Establish a new Arctic National Sensor System for northern waters, which will include underwater surveillance technologies such as listening posts to monitor foreign submarines and ships.

Build a new Arctic army training centre in the area of Cambridge Bay on the Northwest Passage, staffed by an estimated 100 regular force personnel.

Station new fixed-wing search-and-rescue aircraft in Yellowknife.

Provide eastern and western Arctic air surveillance by stationing new long-range uninhabited aerial vehicle (UAV) squadrons at CFB Goose Bay and CFB Comox to provide continuous Arctic and ocean surveillance and patrol.

Revitalize the Canadian Rangers by recruiting up to 500 additional Rangers and increasing their level of training, activity, and equipment.

Provide an army emergency response capability for the Arctic through the new airborne battalion and airlift capacity stationed at CFB Trenton.

Once again Harper demonstrated that the Conservatives have a well-thought out and comprehensive platform in this campaign. Increasingly this past week Paul Martin has been looking flustered and off-key as he responds to Harper's inceasingly assertive thrusts.

Meanwhile Jack Layton went to Edmonton to take on the perceived "enemy" of non-profit health care, Alberta Premier Ralph Klein. Back off medicare, Layton warned Klein. Layton said he won't let the federal government or the provinces bring in private health care.

Singling out Klein, Layton said, "I came here to deliver a message, one that he needs to hear. Back off! You are not going to destroy public health care. New Democrats won't let you. Make no mistake about it."

"We now have a Liberal prime minister who seems to think that Lester Pearson is just the name of an airport. Paul Martin's Liberals are so busy playing the political games, they've forgotten what they believe in. Under Paul Martin, the Liberals have lost their values and broken so many promises they don't even bother to pretend anymore," Layton said.

He then turned to the Conservatives, describing them as "today's Liberals in a hurry."

"Stephen Harper wants to privatize faster, pollute faster, integrate our economy into the United States faster," he said.

The latest Strategic Counsel poll indicates that the gap between the Bloc and the Liberals is widening in Quebec and the race nationally is tightening.

Liberal: 33%
Conservative: 29%
NDP: 17%
Bloc Québécois: 15%
Green Party: 6%

In Ontario, the Liberal lead over the Tories - which reached 18 percentage points just over a week ago, has narrowed to 7 points

The latest SES tracking poll also shows the national gap between the Liberals and the Conservatives is narrowing.

Rumours abound on the internet that the Liberals will mount an aggressive series of attack ads after Christmas. You can see a preview of planned ads at Stephen Taylor's blog. It's worth a view.

Today's Toronto Star carries an incisive article by James Travers showing that there is little difference between Harper (Liberal-lite) and Martin (a Conservative with a winning smile). Travers speculates:

"If the election-day consensus is that Harper is Liberal-lite and Martin just a conservative with a winning smile, the hunger for change will outweigh the risks and this prime minister will be chased from power."