Liberals in freefall in Quebec

According to CTV, a new poll paints a devastating picture of a Liberal party completely reduced to a rump in Quebec if an election were held today. The Bloc Quebecois, which has been the province's dominant party, is down to 30 per cent support. The Tories are nipping at the BQ's heels with 29 per cent. The Liberals have only 20 per cent support, and the NDP are at 15 per cent. Among francophones, the breakdown was as follows:
Bloc: 35 per cent
Tories: 30 per cent
Liberals, NDP: Tied at 15 per cent



The pundits were quick to pronounce Dion's leadership dead. For details see:



http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20080330/libs_dion_080330/20080330?hub=TopStories



These results give reason for despair.

The likely outcome of any election now is another, perhaps strenghthened, Conservative minority. I don't think Harper can make any significant inroads in Ontario notwithstanding speculation to that effect by Mulroney's former toadie, Ian MacDonald.

The Liberals have remained tied with the Conservatives in most recent polls despite the Dion millstone. Therefore, they might as well pull the plug and get on with it. The only alternative is to somehow persuade Dion to graciously vacate the leadership but who will bell the cat and make this happen smoothly. Meanwhile two of the leading candidates to succeed him have different timetables. Ignatieff is eager to get on with it; Bob Rae wants to stall to gain time to build his profile and strenghthen his chances against Ignatieff.

Does Dion face ouster as party leader?

Sun Media reported today ( http://www.ottawasun.com/News/National/2008/03/26/pf-5103291.html ) that Stephane Dion is facing a revolt in Quebec which you could lead to his ouster. Apparently former Liberal candidate Pierre-Luc Bellerose, who ran for the party in Joliette, northeast of Montreal, said dissatisfied members will begin the process to revoke Dion's party membership if he doesn't quit as Liberal leader. Bellerose said he is convinced Dion has lost control over the party in Quebec and the organization is no longer following its leader, and claimed to have widespread support for his claims.

The dissidents are threatening to invoke Article 3.7.1 of the Quebec wing of the federal Liberal party's statutes and regulations to force him to resign. The provisions of this article give the Quebec wing the right to strip a party member of his membership.

Have the mighty Liberals fallen to a new low? While there are no doubt many Liberals who would like to see a new leader take the party into an election, it's hard to see them dumping their newly-elected leader before he has had the chance to lead the party into one election. In my view a public battle and ouster of Dion would be political suicide for the party.

The only way out of this situation would be if Dion took a personal decision to resign graciously as leader for greener pastures, without any bloodbath. Otherwise the Liberals had better unite behind him for one turn at the polls or spend a decade in the political wilderness. Where are the kingmakers like Keith Davey when you need them?

Hillary's Mistake

Hillary Clinton has for the past year been touting her vast experience and capability to step into the role of President on Day One. Recently she has cited as an example a trip she made to Bosnia years ago during which she dodged bullets and landed amid a fierce firefight. New video clips have come to light which show Hillary arriving in Bosnia under serene conditions. Clearly she fabricated the earlier version of her visit. Embellishing the truth is too kind a term for what was clearly a bald-faced lie.

See the YouTube video "Hillary Lies about Bosnia" at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IxVsdS887HA

How dumb does Flaherty think we are?

Jim Flaherty has been beating the drums in recent weeks predicting doom and gloom for the Ontario economy and urging the provincial government to cut business taxes. You could almost think he is still Finance Minister in Ontario under Mike Harris. For a chap who promised peace and harmony with the provinces, his recent behaviour is sharply at odds with that pledge.

Is he running to succeed John Tory? Or has Stephen Harper decided to pick a fight with Ontario because "all" Canadians reputedly love to hate Toronto and presumably by extension Ontario? One thing is certain the Flaherty attacks are not doing much to win favour for the federal Conservatives in Ontario in the next election. And, if Harper is attempting to pin the blame for the impending downturn in the Ontario economy on McGuinty and his Liberals and deflect attention from Harper's failure to provide any tangible aid to Ontario, that gambit will fail.

It's hard to see what Harper perceives he will gain from the recent assault on the provincial government. It appears he has written off any prospects of making gains in Ontarion in the next election.

Clinton/Obama ticket-yes or no?

Pundits have begun to speculate about the possibility that the two contenders for the Democratic nomination might join forces and offer a combined ticket for voters in November. In part this has been stimulated by polls which indicate that significant portions of Clinton and Obama supporters would cross over and vote for Republican candidate McCain if their candidate's bid for the Democratic nomination is foiled. Also driving this speculation is the likelihood that the superdelegates might have to decide the nominee and could well override the popular will, thereby splitting the party pre-election and helping McCain to be elected. It is widely conceded that Obama will arrive at the Convention with the most pledged delegates even if the spread is only 100 delegates or so.

David Olive argued in today's Star that a Clinton-Obama ticket would make perfect sense. He contends that Democratic voters have made their decision: They want both of them. He argues: "Apart from a candidate dropping out and taking one for the team, a merger is the Dems' only chance to avoid snatching defeat from the jaws of victory in the general election this fall."

At first blush his reasoning seems to make sense. It would seem that a combined ticket will win the election for the Democrats. The question is who would be the Presidential candidate and who the Vice-Presidential candidate. Earlier I suggested that the only way it would make sense for Obama to agree to a Clinton-led ticket would be if Hillary agreed to serve only one term, thus giving Obama a clear run at the Presidency in 4 years with the Clintons support.

However, upon reflection it has become clear that the Clintons are now fervently pushing this option. The reason is that Hillary will arrive at the Convention as the second-ranked candidate. If the superdelegates then pick her over Obama, she will lose a significant portion of the Obama supporters who would be infuriated by such an outcome. This would virtually guarantee McCain's election.

As one blogger put it, Vice-President Obama would end up taking out the Clintons' garbage in the White House. Given his current lead in the popular vote, most states won and most delegates, Obama would be foolish to make such a deal at this time.

This is a ploy by the Clintons to undercut Obama while he's still leading and the logical Presidential nominee. He can't trust the Clintons. They are masters at manipulation and cutthroat politics. Obama should continue the race to the end and see where it ends. He's young and will have another chance if the superdelegates blow it and pick Clinton. This is particularly relevant when you consider that McCain has pledged to serve only one term.

Now if Hillary is willing to make a deal to be the Vice-Presidential candidate then that might be an option worth considering. This would virtually guarantee the Democrats the White House. The downside is that President Obama would have to constantly watch his back.

The Clintons are already being put on the spot to explain why they have said that Obama is not qualified to be President but is now qualified to be Vice-President. Given that the Vice-President is only a heartbeat away from the Presidency, this is hard to rationalize. So their new spin is that's he's qualified but not as qualified as Hillary. Go figure!

Conservatives plan to use Senate to scuttle RESP bill

This is hilarious! The guys who want to abolish the Senate now want it to overrule the House of Commons! They've finally lost their marbles. Monty Python time.

Excerpt:

"The Conservative government wants the Senate to help it defeat a private member's bill that would make contributions to registered education savings plans tax deductible.'

Details here:

http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2008/03/07/mcteagueresp.html?ref=rss

Harper boxed in by RESP bill

Liberal MP Dan McTeague has pulled a fast one on the Harper Conservatives. His private member's bill that would allow parents to set aside up to $5,000 taxfree each year in a RESP made it through the Commons with the support of the three Opposition parties. It now goes to the Senate where it will undoubtedly be approved by the Liberal-dominated body. That will give it the force of law once the formalities are dealt with.

This will put the Harper government in an interesting conundrum. Today's story in the Globe and Mail lead with the following:

"OTTAWA — The Harper government vowed Thursday to kill legislation introduced by a Liberal MP and quietly passed by the House of Commons that would allow parents to contribute up to $5,000 a year to their children's education and deduct it from their income tax."

Not exactly an opportune position to be in for a government that favours tax cuts. Having squandered the surpluses left by the Liberals and given away a major source of revenue by reducing the GST by 2%, they are already in a precarious position for the coming year faced with a declining economy. (Incidentally I haven't heard anyone singing their praises for the GST reduction, have you?) So they say they will oppose a law passed by the Commons and (probably) the Senate, claiming poverty.

To do this they will have to play tricks by introducing a technical amendment to the budget (killing the RESP proposal) and proclaim it a confidence measure in order to force the Liberals to let it pass, thereby killing McTeague' initiative. But the Conservatives will end up with egg splattered all over their faces by killing what would be a popular measure.

The Liberals could do worse than defeat the Conservatives' attempt to kill this bill and take their chances on an election. With Harper still stinging from the Cadman affair and NAFTA-gate, the bloom might well be off the Harper rose.

NAFTA-gate,Cadman "bribe" entangle Harper government

Stephen Harper has been busy this week digging himself a deeper and deeper hole. First, the Cadman affair burst his budget bubble. The revelation that Dona Cadman, the widow of late MP Chuck Cadman, had stated, in a book awaiting release, that Chuck Cadman had told her that the Conservatives had offered him a million- dollar insurance policy to vote against the Martin government in May 2005 shocked the foundations of a government which came to office promising integrity and ethicical reform. This was subsequently confirmed by Cadman's daughter and son-in-law. The Opposition lost no time in pouncing, accusing Harper of countenancing a bribery attempt. (Cadman had turned the offer down.) Harper had been interviewed by the book's author and is reported to have acknowleged that two senior Conservatives met with Cadman and offered "financial considerations" in return for his vote.

Harper has vigorously denied the bribery accusations. But then he made a big mistake. His lawyers filed a notice of a Libel suit unless the Liberals apologized in Parliament and removed the alleged defamatory remarks from the party website. This was quickly interpreted as intimidation aimed at hiding the truth.

Then another bombshell exploded in Harper's face. This concerned a leak of a private conversation between an Obama adviser and someone in the Canadian Consulate in Chicago. Obama and Clinton were involved in closely contested primaries in Ohio and Texas. In Ohio the economy and lost jobs were a big issue. Both candidates talked tough about NAFTA and renegotiating NAFTA if necessary to secure better safeguards for American workers. On Feb 8th an Obama adviser met with a Consulate official who later wrote a memo to embassy officials in which he stated that the Obama adviser had implied that Obama was indulging in political posturing and would not tamper with NAFTA. This report made its way to Ottawa.

Shortly thereafter CTV News reported the essence of the Consulate's report. The Canadian embassy denied it but CTV's reporter stated that a Canadian official had again confirmed the story. All hell broke loose both in the US and Canada. Media and the Clinton campaign seized on the leak to call into question Obama's integrity. Clinton claimed that Obama was saying one thing to the voters of Ohio and another to a foreign government. This was reinforced by the leak to the media of the memo in question. This cast doubts upon Obama's credibility. Clinton won Ohio by a comfortable margin, no doubt aided by these developments.

Back in Ottawa, the Opposition again pounced. Harper was forced to admit that this was a significant error and someone had acted improperly and possibly illegally and that he would launch an internal investigation. Today the Globe and Mail reported that the intial leak had come from the PM's Chief of Staff, Ian Brodie, at a pre-budget lockup. Others confirmed this. It is still not clear who later leaked the memo. Harper admitted that what had happened was a serious error that may have damaged the candidacy of Senator Obama. He promised to widen the investigation to include the PMO. Meanwhile the Opposition parties and many pundits were calling on the PM to fire his Chief of Staff. This time the government looks guilty of meddling in the US election campaign and the scandal appears to reach to the heart of the PM's nerve center at PMO.

Showdown on Tuesday March 4th

Obama and Clinton go head to head on Tuesday in Texas and Ohio, plus Rhode Island and Vermont. They are expected to split the two smaller states but the outcome in Texas and Ohio is uncertain and critical to the outcome of the Democratic nomination race. Polls show them tied in Texas and virtually tied in Ohio where Clinton has a slight lead.

Only weeks ago Clinton had large leads in both states but these have disappeared after Obama swept the Super Tuesday primaries and then piled up 11 wins in a row. Whether Hillary continues her candidacy hinges on the outcome of the vote in Texas and Ohio. If she loses either state she will have little choice but to fold her campaign and hail Obama as the Democratic nominee. No less an authority than Bill Clinton has stated that Hillary must win both states to stay in the race.

Even if Clinton gets most votes in Texas Obama could end up with more delegates because delegates in Texas will be determined both by the primary vote and by caucuses. Should Hillary secure the most delegates in both Texas and Ohio, she would still trail Obama in delegates and face an almost insurmountable challenge to win the nomination. And there could be a bitter and divisive battle en route to that outcome. This would put the Democrats on the defensive and allow McCain to build a lead before the Democratic candidate could take him on.

Dion blew his chances

Flaherty today presented a ho-hum "thin gruel" budget, a clear sign that Harper is in no hurry to go to the polls, notwithstanding the fevered rhetoric of recent weeks. Harper's appetite for an election diminished when he realized that the parties were tied in terms of voter support and the best the Cons could hope for was another minority.



Harper gambled on Afhanistan by talking tough but then compromised on the Liberal amendment. When Dion allowed the Ignatieff and Rae forces to persuade him that he should not go to the electorate on the Afghanistan issue, he lost a major wedge issue on which public opinion favoured the previous Liberal position.



With respect to the budget it clearly was not designed to support a Conservative election campaign. There is no poison bill to force the Liberals to vote to bring down the government. And according to Dion's post-budget statement the Liberals have decided not to provoke an election at this time.



So Dion is left dangling in the wind. The public perception of him as weak and vacillating can only be enhanced by his recent decisions. He may well have blown his only chance to secure a minority government and helped ensure that Harper secures another minority when he finally goes to the polls. Should that occur, Dion will be swept aside and Ignatieff and Rae will tussle for the leadership.



I assume that the Ignatieff and Rae forces have been pivotal in these recent decisions. Certainly it's in Bob Rae's interest to get into the House via the impending by-election, where he can better position himself for a leadership campaign. And Ignatieff, given his stance on foreign policy issues, would not have wanted to campaign on a platform which involved pulling the troops out of Afghanistan in 2009, a platform which might well have led to a Liberal minority and strengthened Dion's position.



But, given the deteriorating state of the Ontario manufacturing industry and the lack of adequate provisions in the budget to address this, many Ontario Liberal MPs will have to hold their noses if the collective decision is to vote for the budget. If, on the other hand, the Liberals abstain (once again), how will they face Ontario voters come election time?

Dion should pull the plug on Harper

It's not going to get any better for Dion. Three out of four national polls this past week put the Liberals and the Conservatives in a virtual tie. Harper's gamble on a tightly managed government focused on the PM has failed. After two years in power Harper is no closer to a majority than on election night in 2006. Meanwhile Stephane Dion has to show some leadership by voting non-confidence in the budget if he is to ever have any hope of becoming PM.

If Dion listens to the Bob Rae faction who want Rae in the House to show his stuff before an election, he is only relinquishing his opportunity to secure a minority government.

The Nanos/SUN media poll released today is evidence enough for me. This shows the Liberals and Conservatives tied at 34%, as did another poll earlier in the week. The Strategic Counsel poll which showed the Conservatives with a 12-point lead and sent shivers through Liberal spines is the clear outlier in the four polls released over the past few days. The other three showed the two main parties in a dead heat. And Nanos called the last the last two federal elections to within a decimal point.

There's everything to lose and nothing to gain for Dion by dithering. The Liberals lost the last election because Martin dithered and dithered and....... The Liberals have a chance at a minority; the best the Conservatives can do is secure another minority. If Dion abstains on or supports the Conservative budget, this will confirm in the minds of most voters that he is afraid of an election.

So it's time to take the plunge. Vote NO, Stephane, and give us a chance to tell Harper what we think of his policies and style of governance. Bring on the election!

Minority government can be good government

Andrew Coyne at Macleans has an excellent column on how minority governments can exemplify parliamentary democracy at its best. He makes a compelling case.

http://www.macleans.ca/canada/opinions/article.jsp?content=20080220_111692_111692&page=2

General Hillier should be fired

General Rick Hillier has crossed the line. In the midst of a debate in the Canadian Parliament over Canada's continued role in Afghanistan, Hillier told an association of defence contractors today that prolonged debate is putting the lives of Canadian soldiers at risk. He implied that the suicide bombings in Kandahar this week occurred because the Taliban perceived a political vulnerability and chose to exploit it.

The Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition have been collaborating to forge a motion that would see Parliament vote to extend the mission with a clear deadline for exit and conditions for staying beyond the original exit date of February 2008.

Hillier's remarks go beyond the pale and represent a crass attempt by the leader of the Canadian military to terminate the Parliamentary debate. Has Hillier forgotten that we live in a democracy and that Parliament, not the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, determines the extent and nature of the commitment of Canadian forces to a foreign conflict.

It's time for the PM to fire Hillier and show the country who's in charge. If not, what's next? A coup d'etat in Ottawa?

Update: Three days, three polls

Today's Toronto Star reported the results of the latest Angus Reid poll, following on the heels of two other polls over the previous two days. According to Reid, voters are still not sold on Tories and appear unwilling to hand Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservatives a majority government. The poll showed the Conservatives with 34 per cent of the decided vote, the Liberals with 31 per cent, the New Democrats with 17, the Bloc Québécois with 9, and the Green party with 8. This is similar to the earlier poll which indicated the Liberals and Conservatives in a virtual tie. Both of these contrasted with the third which gave the Cons a 12-point lead and close to majority territory.

Reid said: "Two years later the report card is in – Stephen Harper you fail."

http://www.thestar.com/printArticle/305943

Reading the Political Entrails

Two recent polls of Canadians voting intentions, if an election were held today, offered widely conflicting views of the outcome. The headlines read:

Election would be Tory-Liberal dogfight, new poll suggests

Tories flirt with majority support, poll finds

The first showed the Liberals and the Conservatives in a virtual tie. The second showed the Conservatives with 39% support, 12 points ahead of the Liberals. The polls were done over the same days. Clearly both are not correct. The gamble for Stephane Dion is which is closest to the truth. If the Liberals are tied with the Conservatives, then Dion might well vote nonconfidence in the budget next week and take his chances on winning a minority. If the Conservatives have a 12-point lead, then it would be political suicide for Dion to go to the polls right now.

Presumably the parties are doing their own polling and have a clearer sense of voter intentions. Will the budget vote be showdown at the OK Corral or will Dion duck and run once again? Stay tuned!

If the Liberals abstain then Dion might as well resign and pass the reins to another leader.

Obama sweeps Clinton in Potomac primaries

Obama continues his roll to the White House. Today he beat Clinton easily in the Potomac primaries. The people have spoken again. Obama's the man they want in the White House.

Obama handily beat Clinton to win the Democratic primaries in Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia. He won almost 75 per cent of the vote in D.C. and almost two thirds in Virginia, a state with a large population of military personnel and government workers that was once considered fertile political ground for Clinton.

Hillary has been boxed into a corner. She must win three upcoming primaries in Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania in order to regain momentum and remain competitive. Given that Obama has won seven states in a row, I'm betting that she cannot derail his momentum.

Obama has now piled up victories in 21 states and DC, while Clinton has won in just 12 states.
He has also won more overall votes than Clinton and more "pledged delegates" awarded through the primary process. Hillary is fast on the path to becoming an "also-ran".

Obama on the path to victory

Obama continues to pile up impressive victories in the Democratic primaries and caucuses. Following his impressive showing on Super Tuesday, Obama swept past Clinton in Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington and Maine on the weekend. Hillary is scrambling to block the Obama momentum, having replaced her campaign manager today. It seems likely now that Obama will arrive at the Convention with the most pledged delegates and Hillary's only hope will rest with the so-called superdelegates. If Obama has the most pledged delegates and the superdelegates put Hillary over the top, look out for a grassroots revolt.

I'm betting that it going's to be a tough fight but Obama is going to win the Democratic nomination and after that the Presidency.

Harper on the brink

Election talk is rampant again in Ottawa this week. PM Harper is perceived to be setting traps for Liberal Leader Stephane Dion with the motion to extend the Afghan combat mission to 2011 and a motion calling on the Senate to pass crime legislation by a House of Commons-set deadline. In addition there will be a vote on the budget.

Is Harper really hoping that Dion will vote nonconfidence and precipitate an election or is he hoping that Dion will bob and weave and evade an election? Speculation on Harper's motivations ranges widely. Some perceive that Harper would rather go to a vote now rather than later because his fortunes are on the ebb with an impending economic decline plus a potential shift to the left in the US. Others perceive that Harper is hoping to call Dion's bluff and that Dion will fold again rather than face the electorate. In the background are polls which show that, far from gaining, Harper is having difficulty staying even with the Liberals in the polls despite the widespread perception that Dion is a weak leader.

Time will tell whether Mr. Harper has read the tea leaves correctly.

The other view, and the one I favour, is that Harper has decided he has nothing to gain by waiting and perhaps something to gain by forcing an election now. This assumes that Harper has calculated that he can out-campaign Dion and make up lost ground on the election trail particularly if Dion stumbles as many pundits assume. The pitfall in this gamble is that, if Dion can run a steady even if not a brilliant campaign, Harper may well find himself out of office and facing a Liberal minority in a few months.

Why Hillary Won New Hampshire

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#NHDEM

This link is to the exit poll results at CNN broken down by sex, gender, age etc. The obvious conclusion from examining these results is that older women turned out in larger numbers to put Hillary over the top. They want the first female President.

It will be interesting to see what happens among black Democrats in the southern states.

Note that, despite this heavy tilt among older females who had a large turnout, Hillary won by only 2% over Obama according to this morning's numbers. Remember also that Hillary was heavily favoured to win New Hampshire prior to the Iowa results. The surge in the polls post-Iowa may have actually cost Obama victory in New Hampshire because it no doubt contributed to the heavy turnout of older female voters.

Bush Admits Economy Faces Challenges

I nearly split my sides laughing when I read this headline in the New York Times today. Here's a guy who took the US from a surplus when he took office to a situation where it is now hundreds of trillions in debt, numbers we can't even comprehend. And he "admits" that the economy "faces challenges". What Fantasy Land is he living in?

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/08/business/08bush.html?th=&emc=th&pagewanted=print