Harper to pull plug:why?

Stephen Harper is getting ready to dissolve Parliament and precipitate an early fall election. Speculation is rampant on why he is choosing a visit to the polls at this time. Harper himself offers the spurious argument that Parliament has become dysfunctional and he has no alternative. He has scheduled meetings with the leaders of the Opposition parties to see whether they will commit not to oppose the Conservative fall agenda, whatever that might be. Does anyone have a clue what that is? If you accept this specious reasoning I suggest a quick visit to the doctor to get your head examined.

The most plausible argument advanced so far is that Harper expects his government to fall this fall, having long passed its Best Before date. That being said, Stephen, who is a well-known control fanatic, has decided that he must be seen to be in control of events and hence trigger the inevitable election himself.

I have another theory. Recent polls show different stories but those I trust the most, e.g. Nanos, suggest that Harper could be in a fight to maintain his minority:

Ipsos: Con 33% Lib 31% Ndp 16% Grn 10%
Nanos: Lib 35% Con 33% Ndp 17% Grn 7% ...

Against this we have an Angus-Reid poll showing the Conservatives widening their lead on the Liberals and in reach of a majority. Frankly I don't believe the latter scenario.

The dead heat/tie scenario is much more likely, notwithstanding Dion's evident shortcomings as Liberal leader and rural voters' failure to embrace the Green Shift's tax implications. Harper's sheen has been tarnished.

Reading these entrails, Harper has decided to go to the polls now rather than later because the Conservative stock is falling and a Liberal minority becomes more possible the longer he waits.

Am I daydreaming or indulging in wishful thinking? We shall see, probably in October.

Update: Monday will be Liberal Leader Stephane Dion's turn to meet with Prime Minister Stephen Harper ahead of what is widely expected to be a looming election call. Dion had indicated he was too busy to meet with Harper before Sept. 9. After several attempts to set up a meeting, the prime minister suggested an election call could come with or without a Dion meeting. The two are now slated to meet Monday at 4 p.m. at the prime minister's residence.

A centrepiece of Tory democratic reform initiatives in the last election was a law fixing election dates to be held every four years, with the first scheduled for October 2009. Harper has argued that the law only really applies in a majority-government situation. "The election campaign, in some sense, has already started," Rae said, adding Dion will ask how Harper can go against his own law.

Putin-the new Hitler??

The recent Russian incursion into Georgia on the pretext of coming to aid of Russian citizens in South Ossetia has produced windy rhetoric from the West but no meaningful action. Is Putin exploiting the fact that George Bush is now a lame duck President as we await the November election of his successor?

Russia's actions have precipitated a cacophony of debate around the world. Andrew Coyne and Paul Wells have been duelling in Macleans on the implications of this incident and what the approriate response from Western countries should be. Wells in effect has been arguing that the West should roll over and play possum a la Neville Chamberlain and Hitler, shredding the few grains of credibility he still had. Coyne has dissected the various arguments and boiled the issue down to a simple one. Georgia is a sovereign state being invaded by its more powerful neighbour. If the West condones Russia's actions in this instance then it is inviting further aggressive moves of this nature.

Neville Chamberlain would have found much to agree with in Paul Wells’ article! Shame on you, Paul, for suggesting, in effect, that we should wait for the Ukraine to fall to Russia too before taking any action. Bullies will always run rampant unless someone stands up to them.
Andrew Coyne is bang on in his analysis of this situation.

http://blog.macleans.ca/2008/08/14/georgia-on-my-mind/#comment-17972

Big oil gouging the public: obscene profits

According to the TIMESONLINE, BP and Royal Dutch Shell have reported massive increases in profits for the first three months of this year on the back of rocketing oil prices.BP's pre-tax profits rose 48 per cent in the first quarter to $6.6 billion while Shell increased its profits 12 per cent to a record $7.8 billion.

Meanwhile back here in Canada Petro-Canada has exceeded expectations by reporting a more than 80 per cent year-over-year jump in first-quarter profit. Petrocan's revenue soared to $6.58-billion from $4.84-billion in the first quarter of 2007, yielding a profit of $1.07-billion.

Worldwide the gouging of consumers continues driven by the greed of speculators. This is having a catastrophic effect as it ripples through the world economy driving up the cost of essential goods such as food. When will somebody in power speak out against the piling of obscene profits no matter what the cost?

Sport of choice: Ball size

INTERESTING OBSERVATION1. The sport of choice for the urban poor is BASKETBALL. 2 The sport of choice for maintenance level employees is BOWLING 3 The sport of choice for front-line workers is FOOTBALL. 4 The sport of choice for supervisors is BASEBALL. 5 The sport of choice for middle management is TENNIS. and....6 The sport of choice for corporate executives and officers is GOLF. THE AMAZING CONCLUSION: The higher you go in the corporate structure, the smaller your balls become.

Smitherman: Cut staff and beds

Everyone knows that Canada faces a medical crisis. We are besieged daily with expert articles telling us about shortages of doctors, nurses and other skilled medical personnel and the ill waiting months for surgery because there are not enough hospital beds to accommodate them post-surgery. Given this context, I was surprised to pick up the newspaper today and read that Ontario Health Minister George Smitherman is saying that the Ontario government is not about to bail out hospitals that are laying off nurses and closing beds. He suggested that the cuts may be a necessary evil to help the hospitals balance their budgets.

Has the Ontario government lost its marbles? I agree that budgets must be balanced but not on the backs of nurses and hospital beds.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080408.wonthosps0408/BNStory/National/home

Is Bilingualism A Failed policy?

In an op-ed piece in Saturday's Globe and Mail, KONRAD YAKABUSKI examines the state of bilingualism in Canada and concluded that bilingualism is a failed policy. Recently there has been controversy about the efficacy of early French immersion programs in some provinces, particulary New Brunswick, Canada's only officially bilingual province. Yakabuski oberserved that, despite the billions spent since the adoption of the Official Languages Act in 1969, the already derisory rates of bilingualism are falling in English Canada. And in Quebec there is a continued obsession with making everyone learn French, to heck with English even though that is the world's language of commerce (with Chinese on the rise).

However, contrary to Yakabuski's opinion, you cannot aspire to be an executive in the federal public service unless you are a fluently bilingual anglophone, a francophone or a female. If you are a francophone female with some talent, the world is your oyster. You can be fast-tracked to the most senior levels of the public service in rapid fashion.

Yakabuski states: "Ottawa still works largely as it did before 1969: If there's an anglo in the room, the meeting is in English." That is simply no longer true. If you are an anglophone in B.C. or Newfoundland who somehow made it to the executive level, you will forced to sit through management meetings or teleconferences listening to your francophone colleagues pontificate while you struggle to understand them in your fractured French.

Canada's experiment as a bilingual country is not working for the vast majority of Canadians.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080404.wcoessay0405/BNStory/specialComment/home

Wheels off Clinton campaign

The wheels are coming off the Clinton campaign train. Tonight Clinton lost her chief campaign strategist Mark Penn who was forced to resign his position after becoming embroiled in controversy after he was discovered lobbying for a free-trade agreement with Columbia that Hillary has opposed. Penn was caught in a conflict of interest because he had kept his $3m a year job as head of the British-owned lobbying firm Burson-Marsteller while guiding Mrs Clinton's campaign. In that capacity he was caught lobbying the Columbian ambassador on behalf of the proposed free trade agreement.

To compound the damage Penn had earlier tried to limit the damage by calling the meeting an "error in judgment". In retaliation the Colombian government announced Saturday it had fired Burson-Marsteller after Penn apologized for meeting with its representatives, saying his statement conveyed a "lack of respect" for the country.

Also the public release of the Clintons tax returns showing an income of $109 million over eight years will hardly enhance her standing with blue-collar workers.

Prison versus Work

You'd rather be working than stuck in prison like Conrad Black, right? Not so quick.... Maybe you should consider the following factors before answering so quickly....



@ PRISON

You spend most of your time in a 10X10 cell

@ WORK

You spend most of your time in an6X6 cubicle


@ PRISON

You get three meals a day, fully paid for

@ WORK

You get a break for one meal and you have to pay for it


@ PRISON

For good behavior, you get time off

@ WORK

For good behavior, you get more work


@ PRISON

The guard locks and unlocks all the doors for you

@ WORK

You must carry a security card and open all the doors yourself

@ PRISON

You can watch TV and play games

@ WORK

You could get fired for watching TV and playing games

@ PRISON

You get your own toilet

@ WORK

You have to share the toilet with people who pee on the seat

@ PRISON

They allow your family and friends to visit

@ WORK

You aren't even supposed to speak to your family

@ PRISON

All expenses are paid by the taxpayers with no work required

@ WORK

You must pay all your expenses to go to work, and they deduct taxes from your salary to pay for prisoners

@ PRISON

You spend most of your life inside bars wanting to get out

@ WORK

You spend most of your time wanting to get out and go inside bars

@ PRISON

You must deal with sadistic wardens

@ WORK

They are called 'managers'


Maybe Conrad doesn't have it so bad After all.

Why Hillary will lose

Alan Abramowitz at RealClearPolitics.com presents a detailed and interesting set of projections on the likely outcome of the Democratic nomination battle. He projects that Barack Obama will still have a lead of 153 pledged delegates and 107 total delegates at the end of the primary season. Assuming that there are no switches among the superdelegates who have already endorsed a candidate, this means that in order to make up a deficit of 107 delegates, Hillary Clinton would have to win the support of 66 percent of the 349 uncommitted superdelegates. He points out that this would require a substantial improvement on the 55 percent support level that she currently enjoys among superdelegates who have made an endorsement. An interesting footnote is that that 53 percent of the remaining uncommitted superdelegates are from states that have supported or are expected to support Barack Obama while only 42 percent are from states that have supported or are expected to support Hillary Clinton.

This analysis indicates that Hillary's chances of winning the nomination are slim to non-existent.
For details, go to:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/04/unpledged_delegate_projections.html

Another Day, Another Poll

If you didn't like the April 1st poll showing the Tories with a 10 per cent lead, here's another one more in line with the majority of recent polls showing the two major parties in a dead heat. The moral of the story is: if you don't like today's polls, wait for tomorrow's.

The latest Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey suggests the Conservatives and Liberals remain in a virtual deadlock in public support.The Tories have 32 per cent support, with the Liberals at 30 per cent, which is within the survey’s margin of error.

Quebec/"The fruit is not ripe"

Apparently Jean-Pierre Blackburn was busy today trying to swallow his words from yesterday. Having indicated that a Conservative majority would open the Pandora's Box of constitutional change and satisfy Quebec's historical demands, he was busy backtracking today. Today he said:

""I think everyone can see the fruit is not ripe at this stage.As Quebecers, we can all hope to see the day when all these measures are part of the Canadian Constitution. However, to do it you need the will of the provinces, you need the right circumstances to head in that direction."

As Macleans so cleverly put it: "He did not say whether the fruit would be ripe if the Conservatives won a majority government."

Another Conservative Quebec MP, Transport Minister Lawrence Cannon attempted to slam the door shut: "There is absolutely no appetite to open the Constitution and to have any amendments to the Constitution."

But the horse is out of the barn. The fruit is rotten. The only question is: can the Liberals ride it smoothly to reverse their sagging fortunes?

http://www.macleans.ca/article.jsp?content=n0402119A

Harper's Tories Pandering to Quebec

According to the Globe and Mail, the Harper government is telling Quebecers that if the Conservatives win a majority in the next election, they will look to reopen the Constitution and give more meaning to their recognition of Quebeckers as a nation. Jean-Pierre Blackburn linked satisfying“Quebec's historical demands'' to the possibility of the Conservatives winning 30 to 40 seats in Quebec, up from the current 11. Blackburn indicated that the Conservatives will launch further constitutional talks with the provinces if the Conservatives form a majority. According to a recent poll the Conservatives and the Bloc are neck and neck, at 29 per cent and 30 per cent, respectively in Quebec.

It appears that Harper's Conservatives are prepared to sell their principles (assuming they have some) for the sake of stealing some nationalist seats from the BQ in the next election in the hope of securing a majority. How will this go down in the Conservative/Reform heartland out west? If I were a Liberal stategist, I'd be arranging for someone (not Dion) to give great prominence to Blackburn's comments in Saskatechewan, Alberta and British Columbia. Why let Harper get away with this dumb move without subjecting it to the cold light of day?

Have they forgotten the Kim Campbell debacle after Mulroney's attempts to buy Quebec off through Meech Lake and later Charlottetown? Maybe there's still some hope for the Liberals after all.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080402.wquebec02/BNStory/National/?cid=al_gam_nletter_newsUp

Is Dion on the ropes?

According to a new Toronto Star/Angus Reid Poll, Stephane Dion's voter approval rating stands at only 11 per cent, and the Tory party has a 10-point lead. The party standings were:

Conservatives 36%
Liberals 26%
NDP 18%
Green 9%
Bloc Quebecois 9%

Apparently 57 % disapprove of Dion's performance. And Canadians continue to express doubts about Harper as prime minister. Harper's approval rating is only 33 %

Dion seems headed for the abyss. Don't be surprised if Harper concocts some excuse to provoke an election to capitalize Dion's sagging fortunes.

Note: Other recent polls have shown the two parties virtually tied.

Liberals in freefall in Quebec

According to CTV, a new poll paints a devastating picture of a Liberal party completely reduced to a rump in Quebec if an election were held today. The Bloc Quebecois, which has been the province's dominant party, is down to 30 per cent support. The Tories are nipping at the BQ's heels with 29 per cent. The Liberals have only 20 per cent support, and the NDP are at 15 per cent. Among francophones, the breakdown was as follows:
Bloc: 35 per cent
Tories: 30 per cent
Liberals, NDP: Tied at 15 per cent



The pundits were quick to pronounce Dion's leadership dead. For details see:



http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20080330/libs_dion_080330/20080330?hub=TopStories



These results give reason for despair.

The likely outcome of any election now is another, perhaps strenghthened, Conservative minority. I don't think Harper can make any significant inroads in Ontario notwithstanding speculation to that effect by Mulroney's former toadie, Ian MacDonald.

The Liberals have remained tied with the Conservatives in most recent polls despite the Dion millstone. Therefore, they might as well pull the plug and get on with it. The only alternative is to somehow persuade Dion to graciously vacate the leadership but who will bell the cat and make this happen smoothly. Meanwhile two of the leading candidates to succeed him have different timetables. Ignatieff is eager to get on with it; Bob Rae wants to stall to gain time to build his profile and strenghthen his chances against Ignatieff.

Does Dion face ouster as party leader?

Sun Media reported today ( http://www.ottawasun.com/News/National/2008/03/26/pf-5103291.html ) that Stephane Dion is facing a revolt in Quebec which you could lead to his ouster. Apparently former Liberal candidate Pierre-Luc Bellerose, who ran for the party in Joliette, northeast of Montreal, said dissatisfied members will begin the process to revoke Dion's party membership if he doesn't quit as Liberal leader. Bellerose said he is convinced Dion has lost control over the party in Quebec and the organization is no longer following its leader, and claimed to have widespread support for his claims.

The dissidents are threatening to invoke Article 3.7.1 of the Quebec wing of the federal Liberal party's statutes and regulations to force him to resign. The provisions of this article give the Quebec wing the right to strip a party member of his membership.

Have the mighty Liberals fallen to a new low? While there are no doubt many Liberals who would like to see a new leader take the party into an election, it's hard to see them dumping their newly-elected leader before he has had the chance to lead the party into one election. In my view a public battle and ouster of Dion would be political suicide for the party.

The only way out of this situation would be if Dion took a personal decision to resign graciously as leader for greener pastures, without any bloodbath. Otherwise the Liberals had better unite behind him for one turn at the polls or spend a decade in the political wilderness. Where are the kingmakers like Keith Davey when you need them?

Hillary's Mistake

Hillary Clinton has for the past year been touting her vast experience and capability to step into the role of President on Day One. Recently she has cited as an example a trip she made to Bosnia years ago during which she dodged bullets and landed amid a fierce firefight. New video clips have come to light which show Hillary arriving in Bosnia under serene conditions. Clearly she fabricated the earlier version of her visit. Embellishing the truth is too kind a term for what was clearly a bald-faced lie.

See the YouTube video "Hillary Lies about Bosnia" at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IxVsdS887HA

How dumb does Flaherty think we are?

Jim Flaherty has been beating the drums in recent weeks predicting doom and gloom for the Ontario economy and urging the provincial government to cut business taxes. You could almost think he is still Finance Minister in Ontario under Mike Harris. For a chap who promised peace and harmony with the provinces, his recent behaviour is sharply at odds with that pledge.

Is he running to succeed John Tory? Or has Stephen Harper decided to pick a fight with Ontario because "all" Canadians reputedly love to hate Toronto and presumably by extension Ontario? One thing is certain the Flaherty attacks are not doing much to win favour for the federal Conservatives in Ontario in the next election. And, if Harper is attempting to pin the blame for the impending downturn in the Ontario economy on McGuinty and his Liberals and deflect attention from Harper's failure to provide any tangible aid to Ontario, that gambit will fail.

It's hard to see what Harper perceives he will gain from the recent assault on the provincial government. It appears he has written off any prospects of making gains in Ontarion in the next election.

Clinton/Obama ticket-yes or no?

Pundits have begun to speculate about the possibility that the two contenders for the Democratic nomination might join forces and offer a combined ticket for voters in November. In part this has been stimulated by polls which indicate that significant portions of Clinton and Obama supporters would cross over and vote for Republican candidate McCain if their candidate's bid for the Democratic nomination is foiled. Also driving this speculation is the likelihood that the superdelegates might have to decide the nominee and could well override the popular will, thereby splitting the party pre-election and helping McCain to be elected. It is widely conceded that Obama will arrive at the Convention with the most pledged delegates even if the spread is only 100 delegates or so.

David Olive argued in today's Star that a Clinton-Obama ticket would make perfect sense. He contends that Democratic voters have made their decision: They want both of them. He argues: "Apart from a candidate dropping out and taking one for the team, a merger is the Dems' only chance to avoid snatching defeat from the jaws of victory in the general election this fall."

At first blush his reasoning seems to make sense. It would seem that a combined ticket will win the election for the Democrats. The question is who would be the Presidential candidate and who the Vice-Presidential candidate. Earlier I suggested that the only way it would make sense for Obama to agree to a Clinton-led ticket would be if Hillary agreed to serve only one term, thus giving Obama a clear run at the Presidency in 4 years with the Clintons support.

However, upon reflection it has become clear that the Clintons are now fervently pushing this option. The reason is that Hillary will arrive at the Convention as the second-ranked candidate. If the superdelegates then pick her over Obama, she will lose a significant portion of the Obama supporters who would be infuriated by such an outcome. This would virtually guarantee McCain's election.

As one blogger put it, Vice-President Obama would end up taking out the Clintons' garbage in the White House. Given his current lead in the popular vote, most states won and most delegates, Obama would be foolish to make such a deal at this time.

This is a ploy by the Clintons to undercut Obama while he's still leading and the logical Presidential nominee. He can't trust the Clintons. They are masters at manipulation and cutthroat politics. Obama should continue the race to the end and see where it ends. He's young and will have another chance if the superdelegates blow it and pick Clinton. This is particularly relevant when you consider that McCain has pledged to serve only one term.

Now if Hillary is willing to make a deal to be the Vice-Presidential candidate then that might be an option worth considering. This would virtually guarantee the Democrats the White House. The downside is that President Obama would have to constantly watch his back.

The Clintons are already being put on the spot to explain why they have said that Obama is not qualified to be President but is now qualified to be Vice-President. Given that the Vice-President is only a heartbeat away from the Presidency, this is hard to rationalize. So their new spin is that's he's qualified but not as qualified as Hillary. Go figure!

Conservatives plan to use Senate to scuttle RESP bill

This is hilarious! The guys who want to abolish the Senate now want it to overrule the House of Commons! They've finally lost their marbles. Monty Python time.

Excerpt:

"The Conservative government wants the Senate to help it defeat a private member's bill that would make contributions to registered education savings plans tax deductible.'

Details here:

http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2008/03/07/mcteagueresp.html?ref=rss

Harper boxed in by RESP bill

Liberal MP Dan McTeague has pulled a fast one on the Harper Conservatives. His private member's bill that would allow parents to set aside up to $5,000 taxfree each year in a RESP made it through the Commons with the support of the three Opposition parties. It now goes to the Senate where it will undoubtedly be approved by the Liberal-dominated body. That will give it the force of law once the formalities are dealt with.

This will put the Harper government in an interesting conundrum. Today's story in the Globe and Mail lead with the following:

"OTTAWA — The Harper government vowed Thursday to kill legislation introduced by a Liberal MP and quietly passed by the House of Commons that would allow parents to contribute up to $5,000 a year to their children's education and deduct it from their income tax."

Not exactly an opportune position to be in for a government that favours tax cuts. Having squandered the surpluses left by the Liberals and given away a major source of revenue by reducing the GST by 2%, they are already in a precarious position for the coming year faced with a declining economy. (Incidentally I haven't heard anyone singing their praises for the GST reduction, have you?) So they say they will oppose a law passed by the Commons and (probably) the Senate, claiming poverty.

To do this they will have to play tricks by introducing a technical amendment to the budget (killing the RESP proposal) and proclaim it a confidence measure in order to force the Liberals to let it pass, thereby killing McTeague' initiative. But the Conservatives will end up with egg splattered all over their faces by killing what would be a popular measure.

The Liberals could do worse than defeat the Conservatives' attempt to kill this bill and take their chances on an election. With Harper still stinging from the Cadman affair and NAFTA-gate, the bloom might well be off the Harper rose.