Proroguing Parliament: To be or not to be

The chattering classes are atwitter with the idea that all Harper has to do is ask the GG to prorogue Parliament until January and his bacon will be saved. As an example, Ian MacDonald writes in the National Post:
"All Harper has to do is prorogue the House. In the Westminster tradition, managing the government’s agenda and timetable is the exclusive preserve of the prime minister. No governor-general has ever refused to sign an order-in-council to prorogue the House and bring it back with a new Throne Speech.
And there is a recent precedent for such a short session after an election. In 1988, after the free trade election, Brian Mulroney brought the House back in December with a Throne Speech accompanied by implementing legislation. The Throne Speech and bill were passed in 10 days and the session prorogued.
Harper has already caved on the party financing and public union issues. He has nothing to lose by resetting the clock."

Mr. MacDonald ,a former speechwriter for the Conservatives, has one fundamental factor wrong.In the example he cited, the PM met the House and got a vote of confidence so this is a spurious example of proroguing after a short session.

The essence of the matter is this: The GG appointed Mr. Harper because his party had the largest number of seats in the House. But Mr. Harper clearly does not enjoy the confidence of the House and the GG will be aware of that due to communications to her from the other party leaders. Unless he can win a confidence vote in the House Mr. Harper's credentials as PM are defunct.

To prorogue under these circumstances would be unique in Canadian history.

What MacDonald and others are forgetting is that we do not have a Presidential system. We elect a Parliament, not a Prime Minister. So, unless he can win a confidence vote, Mr. Harper has no prerogative to govern as PM or ask the GG to terminate this session before he has survived a confidence test.

Will the GG have the guts to call Harper on his bluff? Stay tuned.

Historic accord-Harper on the way out

Today we witnessed an historic accord that will see the Harper minority government out of power within weeks. A Liberal-NDP coalition with Bloc support! Who have thought it?

Regardless of how this unfolds, Harper's credibility is now shot. He will never regain the confidence of the other three parties and I am extremely doubtful that, if an election occurs with a new Liberal leader, that Harper would get even another minority. However long it takes, Harper has set in motion the momentum that will see him out of office within months.

There have been wily politicians in the past who might have negotiated their way out of this noose but not Harper. He is far too partisan and inflexible and he has infuriated the other three parties to an extent that would have seemed inconceivable a few weeks ago. They now have a common cause- remove Harper from office. And all the result of an unnecessary provocative manouver by Harper.

Tactics such as delayed votes, even proroguing, will not save him. He is "for the hanging", to quote an old phrase. And watch the bloodletting among the Tories once he is ousted. He will bear full responsibility for this debacle. The man who united the right may even provoke its unravelling in due course.

Conservative election eve pitch

This is the Conservative pitch on election eve. I received it today

October 13, 2008


"Canada's choice: protecting the Canadian economy or experimenting with it After five weeks of campaigning, the time has come for voters to decide. On October 14th, Canadians will choose a Prime Minister. They will decide who they think is the best choice to manage Canada's economy at a time of considerable global economic uncertainty. That choice is clear: Prime Minister Stephen Harper.Stephen Harper is the only leader who is prepared to tackle a period of global economic uncertainty. He is the only leader who has been talking about the economy not only since this election campaign began, but for the past year. He is the only leader who saw the economic storm clouds coming, and he is the only leader who had a plan. The other guys, literally, didn’t see it coming.Prime Minister Harper and the Conservative Government developed and implemented a plan based on keeping the budget balanced, lowering taxes, protecting Canadian jobs and keeping inflation low. That plan has been in place for two years. That plan has worked. That plan is the reason why Canada is weathering the global economic storm better than any other country.That plan is the best way forward. That plan will keep Canada on the right track.If re-elected, Prime Minister Stephen Harper's top priority will be to protect the Canadian economy and everyone's stake in it. He will continue to provide certainty at a time when Canada needs it most.Stéphane Dion's pre-occupation (because we know he can’t set priorities) will be to run his risky carbon tax experiment - an experiment that will destroy jobs and drive up the price of everything.Canadians face a clear choice: strong leadership that will protect the Canadian economy or risky leadership that will experiment with it.If you want a Prime Minister who will protect the Canadian economy, then give Stephen Harper a mandate.If you want a Prime Minister who will experiment with the Canadian economy, then give Mr. Dion a mandate to impose his carbon tax."

After reading it, I have to agree with Dion's statement that Harper has based his campaign on lie upon lie. Let's hope Canadians give him at best a reduced minority tomorrow.

Bourque continues to hammer Dion

Pierre Bourque continues to shill for the Conservative party. His daily melange of headlines continue to link to attacks on Dion and the Liberals, the most one-sided election coverage imaginable.

Today he plays up a story about Elizabeth May as a future Liberal cabinet minister or Senator. Yes, I'm not making this up. Here's what he has to say in a mini-torial:


"GREEN SUPPORTER: ELIZABETH MAY HAS SOLD US OUT !
SENATOR MAY ? ENVIRONMENT MINISTER MAY ?
Where does Green Party leader Elizabeth May get her marching orders ? With less than 48 hours to go before voters go to the polls across Canada, emotions are running high inside campaigns faltering within sight of the finish line. In recent hours, Bourque has heard from a number of senior political operatives, notably a very senior Liberal organizer who admittedly worked on the leadership bid of one of Stephane Dion's rivals, in other words someone who has much to gain if Dion and his Green Shift are soundly defeated Tuesday. Yet, this still-very-active politico tells Bourque he fears a secret deal has been cooked between Dion and Elizabeth May (both unabashed disciples of ex-pat Kyoto godfather Maurice Strong) which may explain why she has been meeting with "key Liberal organizers" and is now actively telling Green Party supporters to vote Liberal, of all things. This, according to our Liberal insider, in exchange for a possible Senate seat and a place as Environment Minister in a Dion-led government. To be clear, Ms May's curious strategy of backing Dion is creating ill-will within her own party to the point that "a lot of Green candidates are upset", according to one national news report this morning. Surprisingly, top Green Party representatives are refusing to respond to a query from this organ as to what is the Party's current position on the Senate. Developing."

How low can he go?

More Bourque Bias

Tonight's Bourque headlines. I rest my case

DION HAMMERED OVER BOTCHED INTERVIEW
WATCH THE INTERVIEW LIBERALS TRIED TO STOP
FOR DION, THE DAMAGE IS DONE
Greens see political connections behind strategic voting site ......... Lib candidate: carbon tax won't reduce emissions ......... Tories commit millions to improve lung health ......... The irrational exuberance of Dionmania begins to wane ......... Harper sharpens attack ......... Layton's demagogic moment ......... Harper growing into the job ......... Harper for the rough road ......... Prime Minister Dion loses something in translation ......... Trudeau more than just a name ? ......... Panic-mongers ......... Dion & Layton play to fear ......... A combative Baird ......... Election campaign follows left-right ideological lines ......... Dion: Green Shift or bust ......... Lib campaign workers arrested ......... Top Green backer: vote ndp, liberal ......... Get the pickle fork ready for Fortier .......... Tories look to Greens to be BC wild card ......... Dion nixes deal with Ndp ......... All for naught ......... Dion's high road hits the low road ......... Mulroney then Harper now

Majority hopes dashed, Harper struggles for 2nd minority

Since the US financial crisis mushroomed into a global meltdown, the foundations of Stephen Harper's run for a majority have been shattered. As Harper is increasingly seen as cold and uncaring, e.g. "good time to buy stock bargains", his odds of maintaining a minority government seem to be diminishing day by day.

Harper fared poorly in both the French and English debates. Dion did not stumble as the Conservatives (and many Liberals) had expected. Layton and May both performed well in the English debate.

Harper threw away at least 20 seats in Quebec with his ham-fisted moves on cuts to arts and culture and his sentencing stance on youths. This enabled Duceppe to regain ground lost in the early days of the campaign and to become the rallying point for a "stop Harper from getting a majority" campaign. This leaves Harper looking to Ontario to bolster his sagging fortunes. Dion has been hobbled by the split in the left-of-center vote, with the NDP and the Green Party continuing to poll well. But Dion has found his stride since the debates and is beginning to pull votes from the others.

If Nik Nanos' (the pollster who came closest to predicting exactly the outcome of the 2006 election) lastest polls are accurate then Dion has a chance , albeit slim, of overtaking Haper on election day and winning a minority by the skin of his teeth, thereby snatching victory from the jaws of defeat. If not, then look for a diminished Conservative minority. Depending on how the number of seats turn out, some are beginning to speculate about the possibility of a non-Conservative coalition, after Harper is dispatched with relative ease by a non-confidence vote. Fantasy? Maybe. Maybe not. The talk of deals has already begun.

In any event, the big loser of this election is likely to be Stephen Harper who broke his own fixed election law in an attempt to secure a majority. Even if he gains a second(diminished) minority, he will end up the loser.

Bourque: Biased Election Coverage ???

Why is Pierre Bourque tilting coverage in favour of the Conservatives throughout Election 2008?

If you have been visiting bourque.org during this campaign, you will have noted the consistent daily prominence of headlines dissing Stephane Dion and the Liberals (see today's batch below) and of headlines favouring the Conservatives. Is this unbiased coverage? Hardly. You have to wonder why.....

"THE IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE OF DIONMANIA BEGINS TO WANE
DION'S MELTDOWN. LIBERAL COVER UP
TORIES COMMIT MILLIONS TO IMPROVE LUNG HEALTH
Harper growing into the job ......... Dion: Green Shift or bust ......... O'Neill/Mayeda/Johnson: Prime Minister Dion ? .........Martin: Prime Minister Dion ? ......... Lib campaign workers arrested ......... Top Green backer: vote ndp, liberal ......... The numbers game ......... The splintering of politics ......... Vote splits create unexpected results ......... Harper plays the mom card ......... Parties support strong action on lung health ......... Ndp fighting to be official opposition ......... Strategic vote will hurt Greens ......... Should the Green just fade away ......... Which party will cut a deal ......... Yukon Premier blasts Libs ......... Panic politics ......... "
Source: www.bourque.org October 9, 2008 10:30 PM

Harper majority slipping away

After the easy ride of Week One, notwithstanding his minor warroom gaffes, Stephen Harper's warm and fuzzy campaign is running into rough water this second week. He is being hit harder by both the NDP and the Liberals in ads and speeches. Dion is finally on the offensive. The economic downturn in the US and to some extent in Canada may become Harper's Achilles' Heel.

As I mentioned yesterday Harper's Conservatives do not have a good fiscal track record so far, taking the country from record surpluses to the verge of a deficit. Like John McCain, Stephen Harper likes to say that the economic fundamentals are strong. He must be getting his advice from Jeff Rubin of the CIBC. Dion hit hard on the economic theme today in Halifax, pointing to the Liberal financial track record during the Chretien/Martin years.

The fact is that a deepening Canadian housing market slump, plus a flood of other worrisome economic reports on both sides of the border, added to fears of a widening U.S. financial market crisis. Canadian home sales tumbled nearly 20 per cent last month from a year earlier and prices were off more than five per cent. Canadians also cut their purchases of new cars in July. And jobs continue to disappear in southern Ontario. This provides potent ground for the Liberals to till in the coming weeks.

Most recent Strategic Counsel polling indicates the Conservatives are losing their lead in swing Ontario ridings, with their lead shrinking to its lowest level so far this campaign in these key battlegrounds. The Cons now have only a five-point lead over the Liberals in 20 Ontario ridings where the race was tightest in the last election or by-election, down from the 19-point lead the Conservatives enjoyed over the Liberals in those battleground ridings Sept. 10-13 (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080916.welectionpoll17/BNStory/politics/home ). Their chances of winning a majority are slipping away.

This campaign is only beginning. Stay tuned.

Election 2008: Day Nine

There was one encouraging sign for the Liberals today. The Harris-Decima daily rolling poll showed a softening of support for the Conservatives, dropping from 41 to 38 %. The Liberals picked up three points. The spread between the two parties is still considerable. As I suggested earlier, the Liberal goal should be to hold Harper to another minority. This would allow them an opportunity to retool and pick a new leader before the next election.

Stephane Dion's Green Shift, while supported by a lot of environmentally minded citizens, is in danger of becoming an albatross around the Liberals' neck. Dion seems unable to explain it clearly and concisely in a way that would successfully deflect Harper's attacks.

After this weekend's meltdown in the US, the economy is likely to loom front and center as an election issue. The Conservatives are trying to sell themselves as prudent fiscal managers. This conflicts with their record since Harper took the reins of power. The slaying of the deficit and the creation of large surpluses occurred during the Chretien/Martin years. Since 2006 Harper has squandered the surplus and left us on the brink of a return to deficit financing. The Liberals should be emphasizing that record of good financial management.

The Libs should also be showcasing their bench strength in contrast to Harper's one-man show. Where are Iggy, Rae, Dryden, Goodale etc?

Today Dion was in Newfoundland attempting to capitalize on Danny Williams' ABC campaign. He announced $420 million for fisheries programs, most of it aimed at offsetting the carbon tax. But even there he was placed on the defensive when former Liberal provincial/federal cabinet minister John Efford was shown on national television stating that everyone he talks to is concerned about the proposed carbon tax. Nonetheless, the Liberals have some hope of picking up a seat or two there, with Loyola Hearn and Norm Doyle having abandoned the Conservative ship in the face of Danny's onslaught. The NDP might have a chance in St. John's East where Jack Harris, former provincial NDP leader, is running.

Meanwhile Jack Layton was busy in Halifax where he made a billion-dollar promise to fix the health care system once and for all. He promised that an NDP government would spend an average of $200-million a year to increase training spaces and help provinces expand their medical schools. The aim would be to boost the number of new nurses and doctors by 50 per cent to address a shortage that has left five million Canadians without a family doctor. Certainly a worthy goal, if he ever had a chance to pursue it.

Election 2008: Day Eight

Harper and Dion took the day off. Layton campaigned in Gatineau and Elizabeth May appeared on Cross-country Check-Up with Rex Murphy.

Pundits were busy assessing the first week of the campaign. Jeff Simpson of the Globe and Mail gave the nod to Harper as the week's winner:

"Distractions aside, the Conservatives know what they are doing, how to do it, whom they are targeting and with what messages. The campaign tour runs with paramilitary precision. Local candidates, as in previous elections, are prevented from speaking to journalists. The whole campaign revolves around Mr. Harper, as does the entire government. Ministers are pygmies in the campaign, as most of them are in the government, and it would appear nothing will change after the election, since the Conservatives have attracted almost no new candidates of great stature. As they paraded out their new candidates across the country, the most common reaction was: Who?
The Conservatives are trying (thus far successfully) to defang Mr. Harper among swing voters. The entire Conservative strategic effort – in which policy, speechmaking and advertising reinforce each other – is to make Canadians, or more precisely middle-class Canadians, feel comfortable with the idea of Mr. Harper and the Conservative Party as middle-of-the-road, pragmatic, non-ideological."
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080912.wsimpson13/BNStory/politics/home

The latest Canadian Press Harris-Decima poll indicates that the Conservatives have solidified a substantial lead among Canadian voters, thanks at least in part to a lack of confidence in Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion. Those polled supported the Conservatives 40%, Liberals 26%, NDP 15%,Green party 9%, and Bloc Québécois 8%. One interesting note is that Jack Layton remained the most popular of the five leaders, with 53 per cent of respondents registering a positive impression and just 33 per cent a negative one. This explains stories today suggesting that the Tories will turn their guns on Layton next week.

Harper's campaign will focus next on Ontario and Quebec where he needs to win seats to obtain the much desired but unstated goal of a majority. The Bloc still has a slight edge over the Cons in Quebec. Today the Conservatives unveiled new ads taking aim at Duceppe. The Liberals unveiled new ads featuring speakers other than Dion, taking aim at the Conservatives' negative campaign.

I have not been attempting to summarize the promises made by the various parties this past week. A handy summary of promises so far can be found at CTV.ca ( http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20080911/election2008_promises_080913/20080913?s_name=election2008&no_ads= ).

For those interested in projected seat outcomes based on the polls so far, I recommend checking the Calgary Grit ( http://calgarygrit.blogspot.com/ ) and Democratic Space ( http://democraticSPACE.com/canada2008 ) websites.

Calgary Grits latest has Tories now projected to win 144.5 seats, the Liberals 92.5, the Bloc 42.3, and the NDP 27.8. Greg Morrow of Democratic Space projects Tories 146, Liberals 91, NDP 30, and the Bloc 39. These are remarkably similar. 155 seats are required to form a majority government. So at this stage in the campaign the Tories are within spitting distance of a majority.

Election 2008: Day Six

At the end of Day Six you have to wonder what is happening in this campaign. For Mr. Control Freak, Stephen Harper, it has been a week of gaffes. First, the pooping penguin. Then the attempt to block Elizabeth May of the Greens from participating in the debates by threatening to pick up his marbles and boycott the debates ( Yes, Jack, you didn't win any points on this one either). A public backlash forced Harper, Layton and the networks to reverse themselves. May will now participate. She got lots of favourable airplay from the big boys' antics.

Then Ryan Sparrow, Director of Communications, for the Conservatives took a swipe at a father who had lost his son in Afghanistan. The father, Jim Davis, criticized Harper for reversal of position on Afghanistan, saying that his son's sacrifice would have been in vain. (Harper, pandering to Quebec voters, had announced that Canada would pull out of Afghanistan in 2011 no matter what the circumstances by that time). Sparrow tried to smear Jim Davis as an Iggy supporter. Harper had to apologize and suspend Sparrow for the duration of the campaign. All in all, on the surface not an auspicious beginning for the Conservatives.

Harper's policy announcements/ the diesel tax cut and the Afghanistan policy reversal/ kind of got lost in the furore generated by the missteps.

Stephane Dion soldiered through the week, coming across as the victim of a mean-spirited Conservative campaign whose ads continue to consist of personal attacks on Dion's leadership abilities. His explanations of the Green Shift became more articulate and catchy as the week progressed. He survived all the pundits wink/wink stuff about the slow start to his campaign and the delay in securing his campaign plane.

Jack Layton continued to assert that he is campaigning to become PM. Overall, his campaign so far has been assertive and effective. The NDP bounced back to pick up additional support in BC. Today Jack took the most aggressive swing at the oil companies for the sudden overnight increase in the price of gasoline by 13 cents a liter, allegedly due to Hurricane Ike. This probably struck some resonant chords with voters who generally found the companies' explanation a bit far-fetched.

BQ leader Gilles Duceppe is being pushed hard by the Conservatives who hope to forge a majority by taking seats from the Bloc in Quebec. He was not helped by a PQ Cabinet Minister who declared that the Bloc had lost its relevance. Duceppe's main theme has been that Quebecers need to support the BQ in order to keep Harper from securing a majority.

Today Harper announced that Canada would welcome even greater foreign investment/ takeovers of Canadian companies by increasing the threshhold to trigger reviews of such takeovers from $250 million to $1 billion. No doubt this will go down well with the Fraser Institute and in his Alberta stronghold but what is its appeal for Joe and Jane Q Canadian?

Overall, it would appear that the Conservative campaign got off to a shaky start. But the latest poll today appears to contradict that impression. A new Canadian Press-Harris-Decima survey put the Tories at 41 per cent support, with the Liberals well back at 26 per cent, suggesting his Conservatives could be headed for a majority government (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080912.welxngaining0912/BNStory/politics/home)
But these early polls could actually turn out to be an albatross around Harper's neck. If voters get the impression that a Conservative majority is imminent, this could well cause them to rethink their voting intentions, given the apparent aversion to giving an autocrat even greater power to reshape Canada.

Sarah Palin

For a good analysis of Sarah Palin, go to:

http://beatsentropy.com/2008/09/08/political-peril-a-beats-entropy-special-report-sarah-palin/

Election 2008: Day Three

Day Three of the campaign was a bad one for Harper's Conservatives. The day started with a communications disaster as the Conservatives webmasters got a little too cute for their own good. A Conservative website http://notaleader.ca showed an animated puffin flying across the screen and pooping (plopping a white blob) on the shoulder of Liberal leader Stephane Dion. Dion responded forcefully and Harper was forced to apologize. But the incident has helped to characterize the Conservative leader and the Conservative campaign as mean-spirited.

The incident drowned out the Conservatives' first major policy announcement of the campaign, a promise to cut the excise tax on diesel.

Harper's decision to block Elizabeth May's participation in the leaders debates also came back to haunt him today. Talk shows across the country resonated with callers from all parties upset at this decision and the strong-arm tactics by the PM. And blogs buzzed with indignation. In effect this has become the first real issue to capture voters' attention. The response is not encouraging for the Harper campaign. In his media ads Harper is attempting to show a softer, gentler image but his actions suggest otherwise and recall for voters the way he has governed/ one-man, iron-fisted governance.

Election 2008: Day Two

On Day Two Stephen Harper accused the Liberals of favouring a higher GST and promising to scrap the Conservatives' popular $1,200-per-year child-care benefit. He attacked Dion's Green Shift carbon tax plan, saying the Liberals were "asking Canadians to sign up for a permanent new category of taxation."

Dion fought back calling Harper a liar. A Reality Check by CBC TV confirmed that Harper had misrepresented the Liberals' position.

Contrasting with his avuncular TV ads attempting to portray a softer image, Harper strong-armed TV executives into excluding Green Party Leader Elizabeth May from the leaders debates. Network executives announced that Harper had refused to participate if May were allowed in. This could be a big mistake, revealing Harper's "bully" nature again.

Meanwhile the Canadian Taxpayers Foundation revealed that the Conservative government made spending announcements totalling $8.8 billion in the three months before the election was called on Sunday. So much for Harper's denouncement of the Liberals as big spenders!

The 2008 Canadian Election: Day One

It's now official. The writ has been dropped. We will vote on October 14th. And already the parties are staking out their positions. You could be forgiven if you thought the election actually started weeks ago. Stephen Harper has been playing High Noon all summer, first telling Dion to "fish or cut bait", then inviting the opposition to pledge allegiance to his agenda this fall "or else". After the charade of meeting the three leaders individually for a few minutes each, Harper visited the GG this morning to pull the plug on Parliament and start his campaign for a majority government. (Pardon me: he says repeatedly that he expects another "minority"; wouldn't want to rattle those voters still fearful of what Harper might do with a majority).

Too bad he had to break his own election promises and, some argue, a law his government enacted, to precipitate an election now when he considered the stars best aligned for good fortune for the Conservatives. In his 2006 Blue Book Harper promised:

"Elections are to be held every four years, except when a government loses the confidence of the House."

So much for that promise! But wait... this Parliament had become "dysfunctional" the PM claimed. If that's the case why is he promising to campaign on the Conservatives' record of achievements and promises fulfilled. Ironic, non?

Stephane Dion meanwhile seems to have had some difficulty in getting to the launch pad, with a rather leisurely start to the campaign. He will campaign on his environmental agenda, the Green Shift, and attack the Conservatives' record of broken promises.

Jack Layton was quicker off the mark stating that Harper had quit his job and that he (Layton) was applying for it. The NDP appears to be ignoring the Liberals and targeting the Cons in their early ads.

Gilles Duceppe of the BQ was perhaps the most honest of the bunch. He informed us that the Bloc's mission this time is to prevent Harper from getting a majority. And indeed a lot rides on whether the Bloc can prevent further Conservative inroads in Quebec.

Stay tuned!

Tory majority possible

I might have to eat my last post. Other recent polls (The Strategic Counsel, Environics today) indicate a surge in support for the Conservatives recently. So Harper instead of striving to preserve his minority status may have read the entrails of recent regular Conservative polling and sensed a possible opportunity to secure a majority, an opportunity that may have diminished after the House resumed and Conservative dirty linen was again aired daily.

The most recent poll conducted for CBC by Environics Ltd indicates Canadians are most likely to vote for the Conservatives in a federal election, and believe Stephen Harper and Jack Layton would make better prime ministers than Stéphane Dion( http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2008/09/04/poll-results.html ) The poll suggests that 38 per cent of Canadians would vote for the Conservative party if an election were held immediately, 28 per cent for the Liberal party, 19 for the NDP, eight for the Bloc Québécois and seven for the Green party. If correct this would mean that the Conservatives start the election campaign with a 10 point lead and in reach of a majority.

One of the most disturbing results for the Liberals is that 39 per cent said Harper would make the best prime minister, 15 per cent Layton of the NDP while only 13 per cent chose Stephane Dion. Dion appears to be an anchor around the Liberals' neck.

While a poll does not an election make, these results indicate that the Liberals may have little chance of forming a minority. They will have to make up ground to hold Harper to another minority and deny him the majority which would leave them in the wilderness for another four years. Can they rise to the challenge? Time will tell.

One thing is clear. Mr. Harper will have broken another promise, to move to fixed election times. As Rex Murphy put it, he is moved by opportunism, not principles.

The inside info on Sarah Palin

Have you been following the controversy over Sarah Palin's nomination as Republican VP candidate? If so you should check out the post at the following link:

http://my2bucks.wordpress.com/2008/09/02/a-letter-from-someone-who-has-known-sarah-palin-since-1992/

Harper to pull plug:why?

Stephen Harper is getting ready to dissolve Parliament and precipitate an early fall election. Speculation is rampant on why he is choosing a visit to the polls at this time. Harper himself offers the spurious argument that Parliament has become dysfunctional and he has no alternative. He has scheduled meetings with the leaders of the Opposition parties to see whether they will commit not to oppose the Conservative fall agenda, whatever that might be. Does anyone have a clue what that is? If you accept this specious reasoning I suggest a quick visit to the doctor to get your head examined.

The most plausible argument advanced so far is that Harper expects his government to fall this fall, having long passed its Best Before date. That being said, Stephen, who is a well-known control fanatic, has decided that he must be seen to be in control of events and hence trigger the inevitable election himself.

I have another theory. Recent polls show different stories but those I trust the most, e.g. Nanos, suggest that Harper could be in a fight to maintain his minority:

Ipsos: Con 33% Lib 31% Ndp 16% Grn 10%
Nanos: Lib 35% Con 33% Ndp 17% Grn 7% ...

Against this we have an Angus-Reid poll showing the Conservatives widening their lead on the Liberals and in reach of a majority. Frankly I don't believe the latter scenario.

The dead heat/tie scenario is much more likely, notwithstanding Dion's evident shortcomings as Liberal leader and rural voters' failure to embrace the Green Shift's tax implications. Harper's sheen has been tarnished.

Reading these entrails, Harper has decided to go to the polls now rather than later because the Conservative stock is falling and a Liberal minority becomes more possible the longer he waits.

Am I daydreaming or indulging in wishful thinking? We shall see, probably in October.

Update: Monday will be Liberal Leader Stephane Dion's turn to meet with Prime Minister Stephen Harper ahead of what is widely expected to be a looming election call. Dion had indicated he was too busy to meet with Harper before Sept. 9. After several attempts to set up a meeting, the prime minister suggested an election call could come with or without a Dion meeting. The two are now slated to meet Monday at 4 p.m. at the prime minister's residence.

A centrepiece of Tory democratic reform initiatives in the last election was a law fixing election dates to be held every four years, with the first scheduled for October 2009. Harper has argued that the law only really applies in a majority-government situation. "The election campaign, in some sense, has already started," Rae said, adding Dion will ask how Harper can go against his own law.

Putin-the new Hitler??

The recent Russian incursion into Georgia on the pretext of coming to aid of Russian citizens in South Ossetia has produced windy rhetoric from the West but no meaningful action. Is Putin exploiting the fact that George Bush is now a lame duck President as we await the November election of his successor?

Russia's actions have precipitated a cacophony of debate around the world. Andrew Coyne and Paul Wells have been duelling in Macleans on the implications of this incident and what the approriate response from Western countries should be. Wells in effect has been arguing that the West should roll over and play possum a la Neville Chamberlain and Hitler, shredding the few grains of credibility he still had. Coyne has dissected the various arguments and boiled the issue down to a simple one. Georgia is a sovereign state being invaded by its more powerful neighbour. If the West condones Russia's actions in this instance then it is inviting further aggressive moves of this nature.

Neville Chamberlain would have found much to agree with in Paul Wells’ article! Shame on you, Paul, for suggesting, in effect, that we should wait for the Ukraine to fall to Russia too before taking any action. Bullies will always run rampant unless someone stands up to them.
Andrew Coyne is bang on in his analysis of this situation.

http://blog.macleans.ca/2008/08/14/georgia-on-my-mind/#comment-17972

Big oil gouging the public: obscene profits

According to the TIMESONLINE, BP and Royal Dutch Shell have reported massive increases in profits for the first three months of this year on the back of rocketing oil prices.BP's pre-tax profits rose 48 per cent in the first quarter to $6.6 billion while Shell increased its profits 12 per cent to a record $7.8 billion.

Meanwhile back here in Canada Petro-Canada has exceeded expectations by reporting a more than 80 per cent year-over-year jump in first-quarter profit. Petrocan's revenue soared to $6.58-billion from $4.84-billion in the first quarter of 2007, yielding a profit of $1.07-billion.

Worldwide the gouging of consumers continues driven by the greed of speculators. This is having a catastrophic effect as it ripples through the world economy driving up the cost of essential goods such as food. When will somebody in power speak out against the piling of obscene profits no matter what the cost?