The Election: Day 32 (The Bombshell)

Yesterday I posted the following question on nodice.ca

Should Ralph Goodale resign pending the results of the criminal investigation? Some precedents for Ministerial resignations can be found at http://david-akin.electionblog.ctv.ca/default.asp?item=123896

There have been numerous responses with insults traded back and forth betwenn Liberal and Conservative loyalists. It is interesting to compare these posts with the positions taken by the party leaders.

Yesterday Martin said Goodale will not step down.

Jack Layton said that Goodale's decision not to step aside speaks to his judgment:
"It is blindingly obvious, based on ample precedent, that when a minister's department is under criminal investigation ... the minister should step aside," said Layton.

In an interesting twist, Stephen Harper said that it doesn't matter whether the finance minister steps down during the probe, because the issue goes beyond whether Goodale was involved.

The latest incident follows the pattern of Liberal corruption and entitlement, he said.

"It's the final nail," Harper said. "Ralph Goodale can stay on and run around in his limousine until Jan. 23. What's important is that he and his government are run out of office. This government has not earned the benefit of the doubt."

Interesting, eh? Last night I posed the question: Is this a tempest in a teapot, or could it be the "tipping point" of the campaign?

With all the insults back and forth many bloggers were missing the big picture. The Liberal campaign is collapsing.

Bourque reports this morning on the latest CPAC/SES tracking. As you know until now the CPAC/SES tracking has shown a significant lead for the Liberals. Well,look at these results:


"CPAC-SES Dec 23-28-29: Lib 35% CP 34% NDP 14% BQ 13% GP 5%
CPAC-SES: LIB 35 % CON 34 %
Call it Paul Martin's "Unlucky 13". Bourque has learned that the consistent bombshell reports about negative Liberal Party doings (the dog doo-doo's, the popcorn, the RCMP criminal investigations, etc), most of which are consistenly first reported to the nation on this website, is having a devastating impact on the Liberal Party, both in terms of insider morale and in current polling standings. Senior Paul Martin Liberals, the usual suspects, are now second-guessing their overall election campaign tactics and are also second-guessing each other, a tragic and stunning turn of events for a majestic party that has held government for most of the past 13 years. According to insiders well-placed to understand the nuances within Martin's braintrust, Bourque has also learned that key campaign personnel are at risk of being replaced in an increasingly desperate attempt to maintain control of the public agenda, and more importantly, the key messaging that is driving this election, something that has eluded Team Martin since Day One of this election. Now, according to SES, "The announcement of a RCMP criminal investigation of a possible tax leak from Finance Minister Ralph Goodale's office has initially had an impact on the political environment. CPAC-SES tracking has the Liberals and the Conservatives statistically tied for the first time in the campaign. Nationally, the Liberals have 35%, the Conservatives 34%, the NDP 14%, the BQ 13% and the Green Party 5%. Overnight, the CPAC-SES one day measure on trust and vision for Canada has realised a noticeable drop for Paul Martin."

I asked last night whether this incident would be a "tempest in a teapot, or could it be the tipping point of the campaign?" These results certainly suggest that it may well be the tilting point that sees Martin go down to defeat on January 23.