The Election: Day 33 (Liberal collapse confirmed)

The reports today on the SES poll indicate that Martin's approval rating dropped 18 points in 24 hours. This means he's in serious trouble in terms of turning the campaign around. Now all the corrurption baggage is going to come back to haunt him. The bottom line is that the Liberals have not yet been punished by the voters for their earlier misdeeds. That reckoning will probably occur on January 23.

The Liberal decision not to have Goodale step aside, coupled with the announcement of the RCMP criminal investigation, has had immediate dramatic negative effects for the Liberals. The SES poll indicated a statistical tie between the Liberals and the Conservatives and a precipitous drop in Martin's personal approval rating of 18 points in 24 hours.

A new Decima poll released today confirms that the Liberals and Conservatives are tied as they enter the last phase of the campaign.

The survey by Decima Research pegs Liberal support at 32 per cent of those who are likely to vote, compared to 30 per cent who say they intend to back the Conservatives. Given the poll's margin of error of 3.1 percentage points, the two parties are in a statistical dead heat.

New Democrats are backed by 18 per cent of the 1,020 respondents to a telephone survey between Dec. 29 and Dec. 30, while 14 per cent say they will vote for the Bloc Quebecois.

The biggest regional shift is being felt in Ontario, where the Liberals' once-commanding lead has shrunk to just four percentage points over the Conservatives at 40-36.

A Conservative minority will put pressure on Martin to leave. His departure is necessary in order for the Liberal party to heal and rebuild itself. Meanwhile the minority status will prevent the Conservatives from implementing radical changes to social programs. This should be the preferred outcome of all who are Liberal at heart but fed up with the shenanigans of the current regime.