The Election: Day 53 (Conservative minority imminent)

A number of recent polls suggest the Conservatives have maintained a 9-12 point lead over the Liberals despite Paul Martin's desperate last-minute attempts to scare voters into voting for the Liberals. Here are the results available tonight:

CPAC-SES Jan 17-19: CP 35.5% Lib 29% NDP 18.8% BQ 11.1% GP 5.6
Ekos CP 37.4% Lib 27.3% NDP 20.8%, BQ 10.1%, GP 3.9%
Gregg Jan 17-18: CP 37% Lib 28% NDP 16% BQ 12% GP 7
Leger Jan 12-17: CP 38% Lib 29% Ndp 17% BQ 11% GP ?
Ipsos Reid: CP 38% Lib 26% NDP 19% BQ 11% GP 5%

These numbers indicate that the Conservatives will form a solid minority government as a result of the election. It appears they will make a breakthrough in Quebec and elect several members. The effect of the unanticipated Conservative surge in Quebec will be to deny the Bloc Quebecois the opportunity to break through the magical 50% barrier as seemed possible early in the campaign.

Will Jack Layton gain enough seats to be able to exert leverage over the Conservative minority government? Some projections suggest the NDP might get up to 30 seats or so.

In the last days of the campaign Paul Martin is painting Stephen Harper as an extreme social conservative and pleading for NDP supporters to bolt to the Liberals to block Harper. This is a replay of his campaigning in the last days of the previous election. That time it worked for him. This time the Conservative and NDP vote is holding steady.

Harper,after straying off message earlier in the week with his musings about the Senate,courts and public service, has returned to his central campaign theme, "Let's get rid of Liberal corruption. It's time for a change."

Jack Layton is concentrating his efforts in B.C. where the races are tight and he could pick up seats if voters tired of the Liberals but unwilling to embrace a Conservative government pick up his challenge to: "Lend us your votes."

The Election: Day 52

According to a poll conducted by the Strategic Counsel for The Globe and Mail-CTV News two-thirds of Canadians say it's time to change the government. This poll indicates that the Conservatives continue to hold a double-digit polling lead (16 points)despite some tightening and apparent resistance from the Liberal stronghold of the Greater Toronto Area. Nationally the results are:

Conservative 41%
Liberal 25%
NDP 17%
Bloc 12%
Green 5%


The desire for change has grown most in Quebec, where 83 per cent say it's time for a change, up from 59 per cent when the election was called. The desire for change is up across the country. However, the most resistant voters are in Ontario. Ontario continues to be the Liberals' last bastion as voters in the Greater Toronto Area continue to support Paul Martin's party over the Tories.

Turnout at advance polls for the federal election this year jumped by about 25 per cent compared to the 2004 election.

Perhaps the most significant development in this election has been a seismic shift in Quebec. Chantal Hebert describes the changes occurring there during this election:

"For the first time in over a decade, it is once again politically correct to support the Conservatives in Central Canada. After a 13-year absence, the party has returned to the mainstream and, from all indications, it is there to stay.

"But it goes beyond that. Quebec has been the scene of a dramatic shift, a sea change whose implications are still difficult to measure except to know that they are significant.

"Consider the following:

"This was never going to be a good year to run as a federal Liberal in Quebec. But if Quebecers had only wanted to punish Paul Martin for the failings of his party and his government, they would have stuck with the Bloc Québécois.

"Gilles Duceppe remains Quebec's most respected leader. He has run a campaign whose only fault to date has been its predictability. For his pains, he has recorded a double-digit loss in support since the election call. According to a CROP poll published this week, the Bloc could come out of the election with less than 40 per cent of the popular vote on Monday. In the Quebec City area, it has actually fallen behind the Conservatives.

"Harper's surge in Quebec caught the Bloc completely off guard. It seems its counteroffensive was too late in coming to nip it in the bud.

"That a leader from Alberta — whose policies remain controversial in Quebec — is the beneficiary of this turn-around makes it even more remarkable......

"Regardless of Monday's seat count in Quebec, this will have lasting consequences. For better or for worse, the Conservative party has for now become the federalist option of choice in Quebec. For the foreseeable future, it — rather than the Liberals — stands to attract the better candidates....

"The sovereignty movement is the biggest immediate loser of Quebec's flirt with Harper. In the short term at least, the momentum toward another referendum has been reversed. For those who harbour the dream of a winning referendum at the first opportunity, this is a wake-up call that will be difficult to ignore."

Conservatives themselves say they may have difficulty cashing in on their new-found popularity in Quebec because they don't know who many of the voters are and they face problems getting some of them to the polls.

Today Stephen Harper moved to correct an impression left by remarks he made yesterday. In an article entitled: "I'm an ally for public servants" in the Ottawa Citizen, Harper vowed to extend "an open hand to all public servants" if he's elected, saying he would prevent political aides from receiving preferential treatment when applying for public service positions.

"First and foremost, and contrary to fearmongering, we have no plans to cut department program spending. In fact, our plan commits us to moderate spending growth from now through 2011."

Harper called on public servants to "renew the partnership that has built this country for more than a century."

The government has often blamed its mistakes on the public service, he wrote.

"We would end the practice of allowing political staff and party supporters to displace veteran public servants with greater experience or qualification," he wrote. "We would also create a Public Appointments Commission which would set merit-based requirements for appointments to government boards, commissions and agencies, so that competitions for key posts are both widely publicized and fairly conducted."

As the election campaign enters its final days, Paul Martin has been hammering away at Stephen Harper, using his recent comments about the Supreme Court as a battering ram to try and dent his armour.(
CTV News)

Harper, meanwhile, is doing his best to play it safe and maintain momentum in the last few days before Canadians go to the polls, without letting the Tory train slip off the tracks.

Martin stepped up his attempts to try and drive a wedge between Harper and voters
by claiming to stack the courts with hard-core social conservatives. He keeps raising the specter that Harper will reopen the debate on abortion and claw-back same-sex marriage rights.

Harper keeps insisting that he has no plans to reopen the abortion debate, but has said he would allow a free vote in Parliament to decide whether the same sex issue should be revisited.

Meanwhile NDP Leader Jack Layton is coming under fire from his critics in his own party for running a campaign that they say is helping to elect a Stephen Harper government. The charge occurred as Layton continued his strategy of attacking the second-place Liberals while they're down.Campaigning in B.C., Layton for the first timed turned his attention to Harper. He warned B.C. voters that supporting Harper would mean bringing in a right-wing agenda similar to those of Gordon Campbell, Bill Bennett and Bill Vander Zalm.

The Election: Day 51/Conservative minority or majority?

Conflicting polls and headlines today left us wondering whether the Conservatives are headed for a majority or a solid minority.

Two new public-opinion surveys by Decima and SES suggested the recent Conservative wave of momentum may have crested or even receded a bit just days ahead of Monday's election. The Decima Research poll, conducted Jan. 12-15 for The Canadian Press, put the Conservatives at 37 per cent support compared with 27 per cent for the Liberals.
The NDP stood at 18 per cent and the Bloc Quebecois at 11. Previous Decima polls had the Tories leading nationally by up to 13 points.

An SES survey, conducted Jan. 14-16 for CPAC also put the Conservatives at 37 per cent support nationally, but gave the Liberals 30 per cent.

Taken together these two polls suggested that the Conservatives had peaked and were still in minority territory with up to a 10-point lead.

Meanwhile the latest Strategic Counsel poll, conducted for CTV and the Globe and Mail, showed the Conservatives with a mind-boggling 18-point lead. This poll showed the Liberals continuing to plummet in popularity, falling to an all-time election campaign low of 24%, with the Conservatives at 42%. Earlier Strategic Counsel numbers had the Conservatives leading the Liberals 40% to 27%.

Harper and Martin were campaigning today in the Toronto area. Martin was accompanied by ally Buzz Hargrove of the CAW. Hargrove earlier in the campaign had ticked off Jack Layton by urging union members to vote for Liberals to hold the Conservative hordes at bay.Today Hargrove set off a firestorm when he said Stephen Harper is essentially a separatist and Quebecers ought to vote for the Bloc because anything is better than a Tory government. Speaking to reporters after Martin's speech, Hargrove said having a strong Bloc Québécois caucus in opposition would be better for national unity than a Conservative caucus in power.

Harper said Hargrove's comments were "shocking," and suggested Martin distance himself from them. "I don't think any federalist leader should be urging people to vote for the Bloc," Harper said.

Martin went into damage control and said he doesn't agree with the characterization of Harper as a separatist. "I have large differences with Stephen Harper but I have never doubted his patriotism," Martin stated. (Imagine: Martin's great ally called on Quebecers to vote for the Bloc....)

Meanwhile Stephen Harper was into a little damage control of his own. The Ottawa Citizen today carried on the front page Harper's remarks of yesterday that the Senate,public service and courts are stacked with Grits.

Clarifying his remarks today, Harper said that the checks and balances of the courts and the Senate are part of the Canadian system of Parliament that a Conservative overnment would have to work with. "We have no alternative but to accept the checks; they're part of our system."

Judges, even though they are appointed by the government, are "independent, there's no doubt about that," he said. Harper also said he believes much of the civil service would welcome a new government and would be happy with the changes the Tories want to implement.

"I actually think that the vast majority of civil servants would welcome a government that would provide some direction for the civil service and for the country. I think they've been lacking that the past few years," he said.

As for the Senate, Harper said he wants to reform the upper house, but recognizes that wouldn't happen quickly. The Liberals have a huge majority in the Senate, which Harper said could be a worry. "The Liberal Senate in the past was extremely unco-operative when their party wasn't in power," he said.

"I hope that better judgment will prevail and the unelected Senate will play the role that historically it has played, which has been a useful technical role, but will not try to interfere with the democratic will of the elected House." CBC.ca

In British Columbia a battle royal is being waged among the Conservatives, Liberals and the NDP. There are many closely-fought three-way races. B.C. voters will probably get to tell us on Monday night whether we have a Conservative majority government or another couple of years of minority government, albeit this time a Conservative minority.

The Election: Day 50

According to a Strategic Council poll conducted for the Globe and Mail, 55% of Canadian voters would welcome a Harper majority.

"Most voters say they think a Conservative Party majority government would be a good thing for Canada, according to a new survey that suggests Liberal efforts to build anxiety about Stephen Harper are falling on deaf ears.

"55 per cent of voters say sending a Conservative majority to the House of Commons on Jan. 23 would be a healthy outcome. And even in Quebec, where the Tories have been essentially moribund for 12 years, 64 per cent of voters say a Conservative majority would be good for the nation.

"The general lack of concern about a Tory majority suggests the party has an opportunity to increase its current lead in the polls, said Strategic Counsel chairman Allan Gregg."

In search of a clear majority, Stephen Harper endeavoured on Tuesday to play down fears about absolute Tory power in Ottawa. Harper said a Tory majority would only be able to exercise limited power in Ottawa because of a Liberal-dominated Senate and bureaucracy appointed by Liberal governments.

"The reality is we will have for some time to come a Liberal senate, Liberal civil service. At least senior levels have been appointed by the Liberals, and courts that have been appointed by the Liberals."

According to CBC News Harper did not directly question the independence of the courts and the civil service but suggested years of Liberal appointments would prevent a real Conservative majority.

"There's certainly no absolute power for a Conservative government and no real true majority. We will have checks on us and limits on our ability to operate that a Liberal government would not face."

Harper also stressed that he would fight against any attempt to introduce legislation regarding abortions.

"The Conservative government won't be initiating or supporting abortion legislation, and I'll use whatever influence I have in Parliament to be sure that such a matter doesn't come to a vote," Harper said.

"I will use whatever influence I have to keep that off of the agenda, and I don't see any likelihood of that in the next Parliament," he said.

Meanwhile today Paul Martin accused Jack Layton of being soft on the Conservatives and called for progressive voters to rally behind the Liberals. This led to one of the most peculiar headlines of the campaign:

"Martin attacks Layton for not attacking Harper"

If you are looking for some insight into a Harper-led government, I suggest you read a web-exclusive story in the Globe and Mail entitled: "
Stephen Harper's Canada?
Just look at John Howard's Australia."

"The resemblance between this federal election and the Australian one of 1996 is uncanny. In both cases, a centre-left government has been in office for 13 years - the Liberals in Canada and the Australian Labour Party (ALP) in Australia. And just as a tired ALP headed by Paul Keating faced a resurgent conservative force led by current Australian Prime Minister John Howard a decade ago, Paul Martin is facing a confident Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper today.

"But more important for Canadians is the fact that Mr. Harper's party is employing the same campaign tactics that Mr. Howard first used in 1996 for his landslide win and that he has used to great effect in three successive elections.

"it's no accident that the Harper campaign feels like it has been ripped straight from the pages of the John Howard campaign manual. Mr. Howard's national campaign director, Brian Loughnane, is advising the Conservatives; last fall, Conservative Party strategists closely watched the tactics used by Mr. Howard to record his fourth election victory....

"Mr. Harper's strategy appears to be a carbon copy of that adopted by the Liberal Party in Australia. Just as Mr. Howard uses the phrase "mainstream Australians," Mr. Harper talks about giving "mainstream Canadians" a tax cut and offering tough anti-crime policies.

"If Canadians are asking themselves what a Harper government would do to their country, they just have to look at John Howard's Australia today."

The Election: Day 49 ( Conservative support solidifies)

The latest Strategic Counsel poll results, reported in today's Globe and Mail,show Conservatives entering the home stretch just shy of a majority. Similar results were revealed in an Ipsos Reid poll released tonight by Global National.

The Tories are gaining ground in the Greater Toronto Area. Support for the Liberals is now at 40 %, but the Conservatives are close at 37 %. The NDP is at 16 %. The Conservatives are dominant in the rest of Ontario, where they outpoll the Liberals 42 % to 28 %. The NDP is at 20 % and the Green Party at 9 %.

The Conservatives are also making gains on the Liberals in Montreal, inching up to within four percentage points of them. And support for the Conservatives is increasing in the rest of Quebec where they are polling at 32 % compared with 41 % for the Bloc Québécois and 12% for the Liberals. It looks increasingly certain that the Conservatives will win seats in Quebec, the only question is how many.

The only province where the Liberals seem to be holding on to their votes is British Columbia. The poll shows Conservative support has gone down from 44 % in the last polling period to 42 % in the latest poll. The Liberals have stayed at 31 %, while the NDP has increased its support to 22 % from 20 %.

British Columbia may well determine whether the Conservatives get a majority.

The national figures were as follows: Conservative 40%;Liberal 27%;NDP 16%;Bloc Quebecois 11%; Green Party 6%.

An Ipsos Reid poll conducted for CanWest/Global also indicates that the Tories have edged closer to a majority win. This poll shows Conservatives continuing to lead nationally with a 12-point lead over the Liberals (38 vs 26%. The Ipsos poll also shows the NDP rising one point to 19 %, and the Green Party holding steady at five %.

The Ipsos seat projection model shows that if a vote were held tomorrow, the Conservatives could secure 149-153 seats; the Liberals 64-68; the NDP 29-33; and the Bloc 57-61.

Meanwhile Jack Layton continued his hunt for disaffected Liberal voters, offering them his third option. "The Liberal party is going into the repair shop for a while to work through its ethical issues and to figure out what it’s about," Layton said. "They’re going to be busy thinking about themselves, not you."

Layton begged disaffected Liberals to “lend” him their votes while their party “regenerates."

“Vote for us just this once, in this election, so there is a strong voice in the next Parliament that is standing up for the priorities progressive people believe in,” he said.

Layton pointed out that the word "progressive" has been axed from the Conservative name for a reason.

Check out the NDP's Paul Martin credibility hunt . You could win a free trip to an exotic locale.

The Election: Day 48

Not only are the Liberals faltering in their national campaign with a whiff of defeat in the air, now the Bloc Quebecois is campaigning vigorously in Paul Martin's riding with a view to robbing the PM of his seat. The Conservatives are drawing federalist votes away from Martin and the BQ has intensified its campaign with Duceppe taking the fight to the Liberal leader's home turf.

Meanwhile Jean Lapierre, former BQ MP and now Martin's Quebec lieutenant, is spinning matters somewhat differently. Lapierre is claiming that the increase in Conservative support in Quebec will help " keep the Bloc down." Lapierre also claims that pollsters are telling the Liberals that there has been a transfer of support from the Bloc to the Tory party.

"And so, we could be right in the middle and gain seats instead of losing some," Lapierre said.

As an indication that the Liberal campaign is in trouble Paul Martin spent the weekend in traditionally strong Liberal ridings in and around Montreal while Stephen Harper campaigned in ridings curently held by Liberals in Ontario. However, one Martin event in Laval was attended mainly by journalists. Another Martin appearance in the riding currently held by Heritage Minister Liza Frulla was attended by barely 40 people.

Meanwhile Harper and Layton held giant rallies in Ontario.

Sheila Copps opined today that the Liberal campaign has been long on tactics and bereft of strategy. Amen to that view!

Kenneth Kidd in the Star has an interesting article entitled "Is the Scary Stephen Harper gone?", speculating on the evolution of Stephen Harper into a moderate progressive Conservative.

But in the most interesting tidbit of the day, LaPresse has a story on the "SUCCESSION ÉVENTUELLE DE MARTIN." LaPresse states:

"Les stratèges libéraux qui ont permis à Paul Martin de prendre la tête du Parti libéral après des années de lutte interne ont déjà choisi leur homme pour lui succéder: Frank McKenna.

"Les fidèles organisateurs de Paul Martin (David Herle, Mike Robinson, Brian Guest, Scott Reid, Terry O'Lerry, Tim Murphy, entre autres) entendent tout faire pour s'assurer que la machine qui a permis à M. Martin de déloger Jean Chrétien après 10 ans de lutte fratricide travaillera à faire de Frank McKenna le prochain chef du PLC.

" Lorsque Paul Martin prendra sa retraite, nous allons appuyer Frank McKenna ", a récemment confié à La Presse un stratège libéral proche de Paul Martin."

In short, the clowns who spent years undermining Chretien to put Martin in his place and who have succeeded in royally screwing up the current Liberal campaign will have the audacity to try turn the machinery of the Liberal party, themselves included, over to Frank McKenna. This should give all good Liberals who were thinking of supporting McKenna as Martin's replacement room to pause and think long and hard. With friends like these, McKenna will be lucky to win the leadership, let alone prevent a Harper majority in the election after this. Now is the time for a thoughful charismatic alternative for the Liberal leadership to begin preparations for the coming leadership battle.

The Election: Day 47

There was lots of speculation today about why the Liberals are losing the election, and some speculation about the implications of a Conservative win.

The Globe and Mail endorsed the Conservatives in an editorial outlining three reasons why it's time for a change.

"... we have concluded that the time has arrived for a change of government in Canada. Three reasons stand out above all.
1. While the past 12 years have been relatively good ones, the law of diminishing returns has been eroding Liberal effectiveness since at least the 2000 election. A change of leadership in 2003 has failed to reverse the process.

"The government of Canada, long of tooth and short of energy, is mired in policy gridlock. Hard choices give way to easy spending, and long-term thinking is overwhelmed by short-term calculation. Lacking firm policy anchors, a heavily politi-cized Prime Minister's Office bobs from issue du jour to issue du jour, neglecting enduring challenges in favour of quick hits that hold out the promise of instant gratification. Thus, from nowhere, comes a proposal to outlaw the notwithstanding clause. Apologize, spend, line up behind the parade; it's hardly inspiring, even if a mean-spirited minority Parliament deserves some of the blame.

"Moreover, Liberal verities hinder rather than assist the finding of answers to such challenges as increasing productivity, fixing an unwieldy and politicized immigration system, steadying relations with the United States and confronting the real ills of the health-care system. Too often, ministers have resorted to the politically correct course: waving a Kyoto agreement rather than tackling greenhouse-gas emissions, or throwing money at aboriginal problems. Fresh thinking is demanded, but the same old elected officials supported by the same old circle of advisers naturally come up with the same old solutions.

"2. Then there is this matter of the culture of entitlement that has taken deep root within the Liberal Party. C. D. Howe may have been arrogant in invoking closure before debate even began on the pipeline bill in 1956, but at least he didn't hold up his chewing gum and announce he was entitled to his entitlements. Nor, to the best of our memory, did he take his driver on overseas business trips and defend the decision on the basis of his need for security advice. The Liberals have simply become too accustomed to power, and the elites in various sectors too accustomed to the Liberals. When even Ralph Goodale thinks it's all right to investigate yourself, you know you're in trouble.

"Mr. Martin, a modest and honourable man personally, has done little to challenge this culture, despite so promising during the leadership race. His parliamentary reforms proved a damp squib. Electoral reform died on the vine. A new group of PMO apparatchiks picked up where the old ones left off, exercising an iron grip over party and government affairs. In conducting business with the government of Canada, the question of ‘who do you know in the PMO?' remains regrettably relevant.

"3. Change is essential in a democracy. A perpetual lease on 24 Sussex Drive fuels the sense of entitlement that blurs the line between private gain and public good. Just as bad, a perpetual lease on Stornoway discourages the discipline and moderation required of an alternative government. Without a vibrant, continuing competition for power, a democracy runs the risk of degenerating into hegemony on the governing side and unreality on the opposition side. Both parties need to believe they can win elections — and lose them........

"Today, Canadians clearly are ready for change. If not now — if not after a painfully incoherent minority Liberal government, if not after a succession of scandals, if not after four full terms of deteriorating government — then when? When is change acceptable if not now?

The argument against change essentially amounts to this: better the devil you know than the new devil. After all, the devil you know has been mediocre, not disastrous, and lies closer to that ephemeral Canadian consensus sometimes called values. Many on the centre-left of the political spectrum remain not unreasonably suspicious of Mr. Harper's election-hour shift to the political centre. They continue to think the erstwhile neoconservative harbours a hidden agenda.

Then again, Mr. Martin himself has shifted all over the map in recent years — on ballistic missile defence, on same-sex marriage, on the Clarity Act. In the run-up to the election in June of 2004, we wrote: “We wish Mr. Martin had afforded himself the opportunity of an 18-month tryout before going to the polls. Now the voters have the opportunity to impose a probationary period themselves.”

Mr. Martin did not pass that 18-month probation. He doesn't deserve the public's opprobrium, or an electoral wipeout, but neither has he earned the right to a fifth Liberal term. A spell out of power would give the Liberals the time they so clearly need to renew themselves."

Columnist James Travers argued in a similar vein in the Toronto Star that a Harper win could rejuvenate Liberals:

"With the federal election still more than a week away, Liberals are already flipping through their Rolodexes looking for a saviour. For the moment, they should look no further than Stephen Harper.

"While Paul Martin is fast running out of time and luck, the Conservative leader has two chances to rescue the ruling party. He can either make the monumental blunder Liberals counted on when they designed their campaign, or he can win this election convincingly enough to send the western world's most successful political machine to the shop for an overdue refit.

"The second of those two scenarios is the prohibitive favourite. Harper and a party that self-destructed in the 2004 campaign have hardly put a foot wrong since November when the government fell. A significant slip now would be surprising.

"So, if Harper is to save Liberals from themselves he will have to do it with a thrashing memorable enough to force thoughtful introspection on a party more comfortable with reflex pragmatism. It's a prospect the party doesn't welcome but must eventually embrace.

"Reform, renewal and rebuilding are chores done best in opposition. Martin's attempt to transplant a fresh face on a tired party without losing power is about to be officially judged a failure, and recovery will require quiet time.

It's been nearly 13 years since Liberals thought much about their character, ethics and purpose. Since then, a lot has happened, and with the notable exception of four consecutive mandates, little of it has been good.....

"If the Conservative leader eases through another fault-free week, Liberals will be on the outside looking in for the first time since 1993, this prime minister will find his place among history's footnotes and renovators will be pounding on the party's front door. Should that be the future, Liberals will have no one to blame but Martin, a hapless campaign and themselves."

Andrew Cohen wrote in the National Post:

"The extraordinary lengths to which he had gone to save his government — refusing to meet with Parliament for weeks on end, carrying on governing even after an earlier defeat in the House, rewriting the budget three times in two weeks, the Belinda Stronach defection, the Grewal affair, on and on — had utterly changed public perceptions of him.

"Before last spring, it was still possible to think of him as poor old Mr. Dithers, well-meaning but ineffectual, the unfortunate recipient of Jean Chrétien’s exploding cigar. No one would say that today. The consensus now is, in the popular phrase, that he will do anything and say anything to stay in power."

Margaret Wente writes in the Globe and Mail:

"...the capper comes when Mr. Martin tries to explain why he wants to get rid of the Constitution's notwithstanding clause. He spins out a what-if scenario that ends with this punchline: A woman's right to choose could suddenly disappear. The female reporters can scarcely believe their ears. "Nobody but a blank slate would swallow that," says one. "I get it now," says another. "Stephen Harper is sending in the army so they can round up pregnant single women and detain them under lock and key while they receive religious instruction......

"Mr. Martin may not have been Canada's greatest PM. But at least he had a reputation as a principled and decent man. Now he just looks desperate. You almost feel sorry for him. All those years of waiting, wishing, planning, scheming. All that work. All those dreams. And now this.

"But you can't feel too sorry... This is not the way a serious country or a serious man should act. What we're watching is a political death without dignity."

I give the final word tonight to John Crosbie, writing in the Ottawa Citizen:

"The Prime Minister’s desperation is evident in the things that he’s tried to do during this week. Mr. Martin admitted that he approved all of these attack ads, including the attack ad that so insulted and infuriated members of the armed forces. The Liberals and Mr. Trudeau were the only ones that I know of in the last 100 years that would put troops into any of our cities with weapons. My assessment of Mr. Martin is that if he sat in the sewer, he would add to it. I was active in politics for 27 years, 10 as a provincial elected member and 17 as a federally elected member, and I’ve been interested and involved in it all my life. This is certainly the worst behaviour I have seen of any party leader."

The Election: Day 46 (Conservatives on cusp of majority)

The Globe and Mail reported today the results of seat projections done by the Strategic Counsel.The Conservative Party will come within a few seats of winning a majority government, if current levels of voter support hold up, according to these projections.

The Liberal Party would form the Official Opposition but would have only about a dozen more MPs than the third-place Bloc Québécois, the projections suggest.The NDP"s earlier hopes of a large breakthrough in British Columbia appear unlikely.

The projections are that the Conservatives will win 152 seats, followed by 74 for the Liberals, 60 for the Bloc and 21 for the NDP. There are 308 seats in the House, so a party needs 155 to form a majority.

Pollster Allan Gregg said seat projections have historically been a good predictor of the direction an election is heading, but the exact numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. Two regions will decide whether the Conservatives get a minority or a majority, should there be little change between now and election day, he said. These are the Greater Toronto Area where the Liberals remain strong and the province of Quebec.


According to the Strategic Counsel projections, the regional seat breakdown would be as follows:

– British Columbia appears on track to elect 26 Tories, six Liberals, three NDP MPs and an Independent.

– All 28 ridings in Alberta would go to the Conservatives.

– Manitoba and Saskatchewan will not change, once again electing a combined 20 Conservatives, four Liberals and four NDP MPs.

– The Greater Toronto Area will elect 35 Liberals, eight Tories and two NDP MPs while the rest of Ontario will elect 49 Tories, four Liberals and eight New Democrats.

– Montreal will have 21 Bloc MPs and seven Liberals, while the rest of Quebec will elect 39 Bloc MPs and eight Conservatives.

– Atlantic Canada will elect 15 Liberals, 13 Conservatives and four NDP MPs.

– All three seats in the territories will go to the Liberals.

Conservative leader Stephen Harper today released the Conservative platform, a Blue Book entitled "Stand Up for Canada." Most of the contents had already been released but there were a few additional initiatives announced today.These include a promise to cut taxes on capital gains for individuals and companies that reinvest the money within six months.

Harper promised to increase Canada's foreign aid spending by $425 million. He also promised fixed election dates, and new legislation to clean up pollution in the air and water, and on land.There is also a commitment to move to some form of elected Senate.

Harper said Canadians can expect a Conservative government to spend $60 billion for new programs over the next five years, which includes $45 billion in tax breaks.
He also projected $22.7 billion of surpluses over the next five years.

The Conservatives also plan to save about $22 billion by putting a cap on the growth of federal spending each year, limited to the rate of inflation and the increase in population, except in the departments of Indian Affairs and Defence. But Harper said they will not be implementing any "draconian measures" to limit growth. "The most we do in any area, frankly, is restrain spending growth. There will still be growth," he said adding that in some area they will reallocate among priorities.

Harper also indicated a willingness to consult Parliament about whether Canada should join the U.S. missile-defence system. If Canada received a formal, written offer from the U.S., Harper said the question would be put to Parliament for a free vote.

While fighting to turn the tide, Paul Martin was broad-sided by an unneeeded distraction in B.C. The Liberal party ended up disowning one of its B.C. candidates,Abbotsford Liberal candidate David Oliver,following allegations he offered his NDP opponent a job to drop out of the race and support the Liberals.

In an affidavit filed with Elections Canada, Jeffrey Hansen-Carlson alleges that Oliver and his campaign manager guaranteed him a win in the next municipal election, and offered him a job in Ottawa – if Oliver went on to win the election.

Following the example set by Stephen Harper the previous day, Martin decided that it was in the best interests of the party that Oliver cease campaigning as a Liberal candidate and that he not sit in the Liberal caucus should he be elected.

Meanwhile, Jack Layton was continuing to dig himself out of the hole created by news that he had used a private clinic for to deal with a hernia problem in the 1990s. Layton had hernia surgery at the Shouldice Hospital, a private facility in Toronto,
while he was serving as a Toronto city councillor. The NDP leader said wasn't aware
the clinic was private when he went for his surgery in the mid-1990s. "It's just part of the system," Layton said in an interview. "The doctor says, 'Go there.' You pay with your (Ontario health) card. It never occurred to me (it was) anything other than medicare, which it is. "I can tell you now if my doctor ever refers me anywhere, I'll ask him that question. It never occurred to me at the time, it wasn't a controversy at the time. It wasn't something on one's mind."

Layton stressed that the Shouldice facility is a not-for-profit facility that has been part of the Ontario medical system for decades. It was originally set up for veterans returning from the Second World War and was grandfathered into the Ontario medical system, he said.

Copying a favourite tactic of the Liberals,Layton made a direct plea Friday to disillusioned Grit voters to switch to his side. With Liberal support dropping in polls, and some analysts suggesting the Conservatives are on the edge of winning a majority government, Layton tried to portray himself as the Tory-blocking alternative. He appealed to Canadians to chose the NDP over the Liberals so the long-time governing party can have a "timeout" to heal and return to the values of Lester Pearson and Pierre Trudeau.

"Paul Martin has failed the test of leadership," Layton said. "His term of office as prime minister, like his campaign, is about nothing.

"The issues he and his team are talking about in this campaign are improvised, incoherent and frequently embarrassing when they aren't offensive."

As voters ponder whether they wish a Conservative majority government, it remains to be seen whether those thinking of voting NDP or who are still undecided decide to switch back to the Liberals to try to prevent the Conservatives from securing a majority. There are many, myself included, who want to see a Conservative minority with a sufficient number of NDP MPs to ensure that the Conservatives do not make radical changes to Canada's social programs before they have to return to the voters. This would ensure that Martin and his cronies are turfed, the Liberals choose a new leader and some renewal begins before they again head back to the polls. We will watching the polls intently up to election day to help us make that decision when we enter the polling booth.

Earlier today I circulated the Strategic Counsel seat projections to some friens with the brief comment:

"Wow, this is getting a bit too close for comfort."

I leave you with the response I received from my friend Henry who provided the following food for thought:

"Isn't this what we prayed for-- a change, and how can change occur except by the defeat of the current government? The ancient Greeks, who were much wiser than we are, had a saying:

"Whom the gods would punish they first grant the answer to their prayers".

It seems that the Canadian people want change very passionately but are afraid to take the risk that change might entail some discomfort. If Canadians had populated Russia, France or even England, there would have been no Revolution, either Bloody or Glorious.

Vicarious revolutionaries is what we are."

The Election: Day 45 (How far will the Liberals fall?)

The Strategic Counsel poll shows the Conservatives leading the Liberals by 12 points (39 % vs 27%)and probably headed towards a majority government. Meanwhile Paul Martin's personal popularity is plummeting, especially in Quebec. Conservative Leader Stephen Harper has for the first time displaced Martin as the politician Canadians most favour to lead the country. Mr. Harper has the trust of 32 per cent of voters, compared with 25 per cent for Mr. Martin and 17 per cent for NDP Leader Jack Layton.

According to the Strategic Counsel,Martin's disapproval rating in Quebec has hit a historic high. 80 per cent of Quebecers say they now have an unfavourable impression of Mr. Martin, with 46 per cent saying their view is "very unfavourable."

"Those are huge numbers," Pollster Allan Gregg said. "He has come to represent something in that province that the population clearly does not like at a visceral level."

Mr. Gregg, who was a Progressive Conservative pollster in the 1980s, said he has seen nothing like it before, except outside Quebec in the waning months of the Mulroney era, "when spittle would run down their chins" at the mere mention of the prime minister's name.

Meanwhile, Thursday Paul Martin acknowledged that he approved a series of controversial ads targeting Stephen Harper, including one suggesting the Tories would station armed soldiers on the streets of Canadian cities. But he denied that that particular ad, which was pulled from the Liberal website, was intended as an attack on the Armed Forces. Martin told reporters he supports the military and the ad has been misunderstood.

The ad says: "Stephen Harper actually announced he wants to increase military presence in our cities. Canadian cities. Soldiers with guns. In our cities. In Canada." This is accomanied by an ominous drumbeat.

Attempting to deflect the widespread condemnation of this ad, Martin said the ad was intended to criticize the Conservatives' policy because it would spread soldiers too far apart across the country. (I just saw him say this on CBC TV . His nose grew 5 inches as he spoke.)

In another development today Stephen Harper dumped a B.C. candidate who faces charges of attempting to smuggle a car and booze across the Canada-U.S. border. Responding decisively when these charges became known, Stephen Harper said that it's too late to replace Derek Zeisman as a candidate, but that he wouldn't be allowed to join the caucus. "Mr. Zeisman will not be sitting as a Conservative should he be elected," Harper said. "He'll have to get this matter resolved."

Stephen Harper also grabbed the headlines when he stated that a Conservative government would turn its back on the Kyoto accord and set its own targets for reducing greenhouse-gas emissions. The accord's targets cannot be met either internationally or within Canada, Harper said, citing the country's woeful record on climate change since the agreement was signed in 1997.

"The Kyoto accord will not succeed at achieving its objectives and this government — the Canadian government — cannot achieve its objectives," Harper said.

Harper did not state explicitly whether a Conservative government would seek to withdraw Canada from the accord. It would be possible for Canada to get out of Kyoto, but not until Feb. 16, 2008, the three-year anniversary of the treaty coming into force.

A new analysis from the C.D. Howe Institute, reported today in the Globe and Mail, shows Stephen Harper's plan to cut the GST would be more beneficial to lower-income Canadians than the Liberal cuts to personal income tax rates. An analysis prepared for the Globe and Mail by Finn Poschmann, C.D. Howe's associate director of research, indicates that people who earn less than $25,000 a year would be better off with a GST reduction, while most other Canadians with incomes up to $125,000 would see roughly equal benefits from either proposal.

"There's no question the GST cut is better for low-income households -- not a lot better, but it's a heck of a lot better than zero," Mr. Poschmann said. "But it's pretty much a wash for everybody else, except for the highest incomes."

Finally I recommend for your reading a thought-provoking column in today's Toronto Star by Jim Travers, the theme of which is that the Liberals messy campaign shows that Martin is a poor leader. Here's an extract:

"What's wrong with a Liberal campaign now free-falling toward a jolting landing is what's wrong with Paul Martin as prime minister.

Contradictory, inconsistent and still searching for a focus, this Liberal tour and Martin's leadership reflect the dangers of power exercised without discipline.

Even the most desperate attack advertising — and new Liberal television spots shout panic — can't hide that this election isn't about Stephen Harper. It's about expectations Martin couldn't meet, a pinball government that ricochets bumper-to-bumper and a ruling party so accustomed to privilege that skimming public money to pay friends is just taking care of business.

Democracy may be a slow-witted beast but it's smart enough to know when the risk of change is less frightening than the risk of doing nothing.

So Liberals who foolishly believed they could fight and win this election the way they fought and won the last must now stop the erosion of core support and find the energy to soldier through 11 difficult days."

The Election; Day 44

According to the latest Strategic Counsel poll :

"The Conservatives are riding a wave of support that puts them on the verge of a majority government,driven by surging fortunes in Quebec, British Columbia and Ontario outside the Greater Toronto Area.

"Stephen Harper's Tories now have a 10-point lead over the Liberals with 38 per cent of the popular vote versus 28 per cent for Paul Martin's Liberals. NDP support has risen slightly, now standing at 16 per cent. (BQ is at 12 per cent and Greens at 6 per cent.)

"The Conservatives are on the threshold of capturing seats in Quebec, a province that has been largely cool to the Tories for 13 years, as the province's support for the Bloc Québécois sags below 50 per cent for the first time in the campaign.

"Nationally, 58 per cent of Canadians say the Tories have momentum, up from 53 per cent in the previous polling period. Only 14 per cent of Canadians say the Liberals have momentum.

"Mr. Gregg said he hasn't seen momentum numbers like this since the 1993 election, which brought the Liberals back to power."This is a runaway train," he said.

"The Conservative tide that appears to be breaking in many regions is still meeting Liberal resistance in the Greater Toronto Area, the region covered by the 416 and 905 telephone area codes. Polling shows the Liberals lead the GTA in popular support over the Conservatives, 47 per cent to 34 per cent.

"But in Ontario outside the Greater Toronto Area, the Conservatives lead the Liberals 41 per cent to 35 per cent.

"Support continues to climb for the Conservatives in British Columbia, with the Tories rising six percentage points to 43 per cent in that province, while the Liberals fell four points to 24 per cent. The NDP rose one percentage point to 27 per cent and the Green Party dipped three percentage points to 6 per cent."

Today the Liberals and the NDP released their full election platforms. Virtually all of the Liberal proposals had been previosly released with the exception of a promise to oppose weaponization in space. Conspicuously missing from the Liberal platform was any reference to Paul Martin's English debate proposal to remove any possiblity of the federal government being able to invoke the Notwithstanding clause in the Charter of Rights and Freedom. The fact that the platform was printed that very day is abundant evidence that it was a fly-by-the-seat-of your-pants proposal dreamed up at the last minute in an unsuccessful attempt to sandbag Harper.

The NDP's Jack Laytonm also unveiled his party's campaign platform Wednesday, including $71.5 billion in spending over five years on social programs and tax breaks for the poor.

The platform's proposals include:

Home care for seniors and creation of long-term care spaces.

Legislation to stop the spread of private, for-profit health care.

Legislation to make politicians more accountable.

Other items included $20.1 billion over five years on tax breaks for low-income earners; $1 billion a year for a prescription drug plan, starting in 2007, and $16 billion over four years for child care and child tax benefits.

The NDP said funding for the proposals would come from cancelling corporate tax cuts promised by the Liberals.

Layton said the NDP emphasis on seniors, children and health care makes his party a true alternative to both the Liberals and Conservatives.

Stephen Harper had originally intended to release the Conservative platform today but deferred it because the Liberal and NDP platforms were being released on the same day. Campaigning in New Brunswick, Harper promised more help for cities.A Conservative government would keep the Liberals' "new deal" for cities and supplement it with $2 billion in funding,Harper said. Harper said he would stick with the proposal to transfer five cents a litre from the federal gasoline tax to municipalities.

The biggest campaign story today was the backlash against the new Liberals ads attacking Stephen Harper.The ads display an unflattering picture of Harper slowly coming into focus, accompanied by a militaristic drumbeat in the background.

They slam him on a number of issues. In one ad, the Liberals suggest Harper may have accepted donations from right-wing Americans for his leadership campaign, but offer no proof.

The Conservatives say the ads are blatantly false, personal attacks on Harper and desperate acts by a desperate party.

"As we predicted, the Liberals have stepped up their campaign of negative and personal attacks on our leader and our party," said Conservative National Campaign Co-Chair John Reynolds. "These latest ads are similar to the ads that we saw in the last campaign – guns pointed into people's faces and dishonest misrepresentations of our policies."

Indeed, not long after the ads were released, one that claimed Harper would would put more Canadian "soldiers with guns" in Canadian cities was yanked. Today this was the focus of major controversy as veterans and current members of the Canadian military spoke out stating that the ad falsely portrayed Canadian soldiers as agents of evil. Paul Martin pretended that the ad was never intended to be aired but CBC TV reported tonight that the ad was part of the package of 12 ads given to media outlets at 3PM yesterday. It was pulled at 7 PM when it became clear that the Liberals had made a major gaffe. Meanwhile the most offensive "soldiers" segment continues to play in French in Quebec where it is part of a blended ad.

Look forward to more desperate measures by the Liberals over the next twelve days as they attempt to slow the runaway train coming their way.

Meanwhile I leave you with a link to an excellent article in today's Toronto Star by Chantal Hebert

Cash for Copywright: Update re Sam Bulte

As an update to my ealier post re Samulta Bulte and copyright, I offer the following from Primeminister.ca

"Bulte Responds, Geist Says 'Cause or Effect' It's Still Cash For Copyright

Last week I sent Ms. Bulte an email:

Ms. Bulte,

I kindly urge you to listen to the needs of the public at large, and stop listening exclusively to the needs of your lobbyist friends. Please challenge yourself to do better for voting Canadians by taking Michael Geist's Copyright Pledge;

"No Member of Parliament who has accepted financial contributions or other benefits from (i) a copyright lobby group, (ii) its corporate members, or (iii) senior executives as well as (iv) a copyright collective shall serve as Minister of Canadian Heritage or as Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Canadian Heritage, nor sit on any legislative committee (parliamentary or standing committees conducting hearings or deliberations on copyright matters."

Furthermore, I truly believe the strongest and most positive message you can send to your constituents is to take responsible action immediately by canceling your January 19th fundraiser.

Thanks in advance for giving this your consideration.
James Cogan.

To Ms. Bulte's credit, I did receive a response in short order. I knew it was a pre-prepared letter because my name was in a different font from the rest of the letter. Here is a copy of Ms. Bulte's response.
Dear Mr. Cogan:

Thank you for your recent correspondence regarding Copyright reform and my support of the Canadian cultural industries. I firmly believe that culture provides for a strong foundation in our lives and that Canadian culture is unique in its capacity to help define who we are as Canadians by sharing experiences with each other.

Copyright law is an essential instrument that protects the intellectual property and creativity of Canadians. Whether you are a new performer or someone with an international reputation, Canadian copyright law ensures that you will be compensated for your creative works. It also means that making unauthorized reproductions and computer hacking of copyrighted materials – like music, for example - is deemed illegal. Canada stands with other developed nations in its support and protection for intellectual creativity. Recent legislation tabled in the House of Commons by the Liberal government, Bill C-60, sought to bring Canada in line with other signatory countries of the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) Treaty on Copyright reform.

With regard to the fundraising event to be held on January 19, this event is being hosted, but not funded, by individuals who also happen to have professional lives separate from this event. The majority of people who will attend this event and purchase tickets will be from the riding of Parkdale-High Park and elsewhere throughout Toronto.

In 2004, the Liberal government brought in new election financing laws that restricted corporate donations to $1,000 per party. Since that time, funds that have come into my riding association have been made almost exclusively by individuals. In 2004, the last year of reported contributions, which are available at www.elections.ca and which include the election, I received a total of $88,738.75, only $9,200 of which – 10.3% - were made to me by cultural industries or corporations.

In short, as my contributions indicate, they are from individual Canadians for whom I work on a daily basis on their behalf in our Parliament.

In terms of my assistance for Canadian authors, composers, performers or producers, I will never waiver in my support for their hard work and dedication to our cultural fabric, and who help to enrich our lives and our society. Since 1993, the Liberal government has demonstrated its commitment to Canadian artists and will continue to do so in the future.

Yours truly,
Sam Bulte

Not surprisingly, Michael Geist is all over this and has received similar copies of this letter from others. In Geist's response he gets to the heart of the issue and articulates it better than I ever could;
I think the record speaks for itself. Whether this support is a function of cause (the support makes it more likely that Ms. Bulte will support these groups) or effect (the support comes because Ms. Bulte is supporting these groups) is immaterial. What matters is that the copyright policy process has been tainted by the perception of cash for copyright."

The Election: Day 43

Liberals are still toast but they are beginning to stink.

The Toronto Star this morning carried the EKOS poll which EKOS refused to release last night pre-debate. More bad news for the Liberals.Headline read:

Tories head for majority/Poll shows `breakthrough' for party
`Significant growth' in Ontario, Quebec

Quote:

"Conservatives are charting a course toward a majority on Jan. 23, according to a new national poll completed yesterday.

"The survey, conducted by EKOS Research Associates for the Toronto Star and La Presse, shows Stephen Harper's Conservatives have sailed into majority government territory after a stunning week of rising popularity, largely at the expense of the Liberal party.

"The EKOS survey of 1,240 Canadians through the weekend and yesterday found 39.1 per cent support for the Conservatives. The Liberals had 26.8 per cent support; the NDP 16.2 per cent; the Bloc Québécois 12.6 per cent; and Green party 4.6 per cent.

"This is the breakthrough Harper has been waiting for," EKOS president Frank Graves said.

"In Ontario, the Conservatives have widened the gap to a 10-percentage-point lead over the Liberals. Of the 518 Ontarians surveyed, 43.8 per cent supported the Tories, 33.5 per cent the Liberals, 16.2 per cent the NDP, and 5.4 per cent the Greens.....

"The Conservatives' gains are nationwide, but their most significant growth is in Ontario, where they have surpassed the Liberals in their traditional heartland, and in Quebec, where they are now the leading federalist alternative to the Bloc Québécois," Graves said.

"EKOS's Paul Adams said Harper's popularity is driving the surge. When those surveyed were asked who had the most positive vision for the future, the Conservative leader received 32 per cent support. Prime Minister Paul Martin had 20 per cent, the NDP's Jack Layton 16 per cent, and Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe 10 per cent. "None of the above" registered 10 per cent and 12 per cent said they didn't know."

The Globe and Mail reported that some Liberal staffers are beginning to put out feelers for new jobs amid slumping public opinion polls, while other Liberals have resigned themselves to the fact that they need to lose this election to rebuild the party.

Dismayed and somewhat stunned by their collapse in the polls, Martin's Liberals are now clinging to the hope that Conservative Leader Stephen Harper won't hold up under the intense scrutiny of the last two weeks of the election campaign.

There was amazement in many quarters at Martin's surprise Notwihstanding clause stunt. As Paul Wells put it:

"You don't amend the constitution of Canada because you're nine points back. A prime minister who valued the parchment of the constitution above his own hide would understand that."

" Paul Martin is past retirement age. He has been in public life for 23 years, all of it in the Charter Era of Canadian constitutionalism. He is running for Parliament for the sixth time. He ran for his party's leadership twice. He participated in, what, a dozen leadership debates in two different decades? And the role of the Charter was (thanks to Meech and gay marriage) central to all of them? And he never mentioned this little amendment idea. He amended a Supreme Court reference on gay marriage and forgot to ask the Supremes about his amendment package. He has built two different federal Cabinets with MPs who (hi, Roger Gallaway!) sometimes strenuously support the use of Section 33, and he never told them or us he was thinking of ditching it. He has run three-quarters of the longest campaign in 21 years and he never hinted at a plan to launch a constitutional amendment round.

And we're supposed to see this as a serious policy proposal?"

Meanwhile Macleans reported tonight that Liberal MPs and experts are panning Martin's promise to repeal notwithstanding clause.

Quote:

"Paul Martin will have to overcome objections from some provinces, constitutional experts and even some Liberal MPs if he's to deliver on his promise to prevent federal use of the notwithstanding clause.

"The prime minister lobbed the constitutional surprise into the televised leaders' debate Monday night, apparently hoping to catch Conservative Leader Stephen Harper off guard. But it came like a bolt from the blue for Liberal MPs too.

"Nobody discussed it with me prior," said Toronto MP Derek Lee, the longest serving member of the Commons justice committee.

"Other Liberal MPs and senators whose support would be necessary to amend the constitutional clause complained that Martin's debate pronouncement "came out of left field," as one MP put it privately.

"They were confused about how such a change could be implemented and a number of MPs made it clear they'd oppose it.

"I would support retention of the notwithstanding clause," said Mississauga South MP Paul Szabo.

"Lee said he's open to debating the idea but, in general, his view on constitutional matters is: "If it ain't broke, don't fix it."

"Constitutional law expert Peter Russell was even more blunt: "It would be foolish to throw it out, in my view."

Moreover, Russell said Martin's plan might not even be legal.

Tossing the half-baked idea into the debate in a bid to revive the Liberals' faltering campaign is "a strong argument for saying Paul Martin is not really equipped to govern," added Russell.

"And I'm not a Conservative.""

It appears that Martin's little bombshell attempt to throw Harper off stride may be prove to be a fatal gaffe, even if he manages to eke out a tiny minority. Harper's response about the balance in the constitutional package was indeed the correct one.

The Liberals followed up this mark of desperation with an all out attempt to demonize Harper by repeating their tactics of 2004.They unleashed twelve new Liberal attack ads taking direct aim at Harper.The ads are some of the most negative yet, suggesting Harper is anti-Atlantic Canada, hides an agenda similar to former Ontario premier Mike Harris and that his rise to leadership was bankrolled by rich American right-wingers.The ads also:

Attack Harper's comments to an American think-tank in Montreal when he called the U.S. a light and inspiration to Canadians and the world;
Claim Harper will either have to raise taxes or run a deficit to pay for his campaign promises;
Quote Harper on private health care in the provinces, saying "Why should I care? Why should the federal government how they're managed."
Claim Harper and Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe have a close relationship that will not benefit national unity;
Claim that Harper once said Liberal ridings in the west of Canada are either dominated by recent Asian immigrants or recent migrants from eastern Canada;
Report comments Harper made to an American audience, advising them not to feel bad for Canada's unemployed, who receive "generous social assistance and unemployment assistance," and that Canada is content to become a second-tier social country;
Quote a U.S. newspaper editorial that described Harper as the most pro-U.S. leader in the western world. Details at CTV.ca

As for tonight's French debate,I followed it for the first hour on CBC Newsworld but at that point I turned it off because the mismatch between the voices of the interpreters and the leaders was ludicrous. My impression to that point was that Duceppe was making his point about Liberal corruption. He described the new/old Option Canada scandal as a "federal" scandal mentioning prominent Conservative as well as Liberal members of the Council for Canadian Unity. Harper may have bolstered his recent rise in the polls in Quebec.

The big question for the next two weeks is: are Canadians finally comfortable enough with Stephen Harper to give him a mandate to govern? Or will they be sucked in by the Liberal smear campaign that will rage in full force?

The Election: Day 42 (Liberals are toast)

The Liberals got hit with three polls in the past 24 hours showing Conservative lead growing. Last night I posted the results of the Strategic Counsel poll which showed the Conservatives leading Liberals nationally by 8 points, 37% to 29%. Conservatives were also leading Liberals in Ontario.

National:

Cons 37%
Libs 29%
NDPNDP 15%
BQ 13%

Ontario:

Cons 41%
Libs 40%
NDP 14%

Quebec:

BQ 52%
Libs 21%
Cons 19%


Midday today Decima released their poll showing the Conservatives leading nationally by 9 points:
Cons 36%
Libs 27%
NDP 20%
BQ 11%


Decima CEO Bruce Anderson said the poll suggests the NDP continues to draw the support of voters who might otherwise migrate to the Liberals in a two-party race. Attempts to persuade soft NDP supporters to block the Conservatives by voting Liberal do not, as yet, appear to have worked, he added.

That's particularly evident in Ontario, where the Liberals plunged 10 points to 30 per cent, while the NDP shot up eight points to 26 per cent. The Conservatives edged up two points to 38 per cent, snatching the lead in a one-time Liberal stronghold that's home to one third of the seats in the House of Commons.

In Quebec, Bloc support dropped 11 points to 49 per cent, benefiting the Conservatives, up six points to 15 per cent. The Liberals were stalled at 22 per cent.

Some federalists in Quebec appear to have chosen to support the Tories rather than ``hold their nose'' and vote for the separatist Bloc, Anderson said.

Across Canada, the poll suggested the Liberals were clinging to a narrow four-point lead in major urban centres; outside those areas, the Conservatives led by 16 points. Moreover, the Liberal lead among women voters has evaporated, with 30 per cent saying they would choose the Conservatives and a statistically equivalent 31 per cent supporting the Liberals.

Just before the debate tonight Ipsos Reid released a poll conducted for Global National and CanWest newspapers.In this poll Conservatives led by 11 points. Results were as follows:

Libs 37%
Cons 26%
NDP 18%
BQ 14%
Greens 5%

Cyberpresse.ca(La Presse) reported before the debate that:

"Le dernier sondage quotidien de la firme EKOS traduit une percée si spectaculaire des conservateurs que la firme a décidé d'attendre à ce soir avant de dévoiler ses résultats, afin de doubler son échantillon de 500 répondants.

"Nos données sont si surprenantes qu'il serait irresponsable de les dévoiler à un moment aussi critique que l'aube du débat», a expliqué à La Presse le président d'EKOS, Frank Graves."

Mike Duffy reported on CTV that the EKOS poll showed Conservatives leading Liberals by 43% to 29% (unconfirmed). EKOS decided to poll another day before reporting the results.

With these encouraging polls Harper needed to come through tonight's debate without making a major gaffe. Martin needed to hit one out of the ballpark to halt the Conservative momementum.

Martin came out swinging, targetting Harper but he was quickly cornered by all three of his opponents on the ethics and accountability issue, particulary the issue of the RCMP criminal investigation. Overall, Harper achieved his goal of looking calm, confident and reasonable. Martin tried to corner him (e.g. remove the Notwithstanding clause for federal govt -a potential trap)but didn't succeed (Harper actually handled that one skillfully). Duceppe has had better performances in the past but held his own. Tomorrow night will be his turn. Layton stayed on message: elect NDP MPs to keep the others honest.

Martin must be really desperate to pull that stunt on the Notwithstanding clause. We can look for the Liberals to throw everything including the kitchen sink at Harper during the remaining two weeks of the campaign.

My dominant impression was of a different nature. Paul Martin looked extremely pasty and extremely fatigued despite the make-up. He seemed on the verge of collapse.

For a blow-by-blow commentary on the debate check out Calgary Grit

Here are a couple of other perspectives taken from the Election Talk forum on www.nodice.ca

"Jason" summed it up thus:


"The debate changed little and once the dust settles it'll have very little effect on the momentum of this campaign. Harper didn't wow everyone but he seemed composed and ready to answer questions. Martin on the other hand, although obviously the most rowdy of the four, kept trying to get Canadians to believe that there's a gigantic chasm between his values and Harper's values. With the last SC poll suggesting Canadians identify more with Conservative values that might work against him. Layton was a good debater, perhaps the best, but he came across as too idealistic. Duceppe gave a moderate performance, I think he stressed the "Quebec nation" thing too much."

"Hampsteadgirl" summed up the leaders' performances as follows:

"I don't think that Martin has the stamina for this type of thing.
"He looked tired.
"He looked panicked.
"He looked like the guy who needs to get to the bank before it closes.

"And that Layton was irritating with his infomercial routine.
"Oh Jack, I just can't get this stain out. I've tried red and blue. Oh what to do?"
"Well have you tried a third option. Yes that's right try the third option for a "cleaner conscience and cleaner clothes."

"And Duceppe was balls to the wall.

"And Harper was just a little too comfortable."

Final comment:

Martin's Notwithstanding clause gambit may well blow up in his face. It has all the earmarks of desperation.

Breaking News/ Conservatives lead by 8 points

New Strategic Counsel poll conducted for CTV and the Globe and Mail just released on CTV News (Sunday at 11 PM) shows Conservatives leading Liberals nationally 37% to 29%. Conservatives also lead Liberals in Ontario.

National:

37%
29%
15%
13%

Ontario:

41%
40%
14%

Quebec:

52%
21%
19%

The Election: Day 41

While the leaders warmed up for the debates on Monday and Tuesday, a few salvos were fired. The Liberals claimed that Conservative promises will drive the federal government back into a deficit or force cuts in programs

Conservative Leader Stephen Harper's promises made to date will produce a deficit "of at least $12.4 billion over five years," the Liberal campaign said in an analysis of Tory fiscal plans.

The Liberals say a Harper-led Tory government would have to either rack up huge deficits or slash programs to realize their vision of a smaller government.

The five-year deficit of $12.4 billion would be through the 2010-2111 fiscal year, according to the analysis, which is based on projections provided by Canadian economists.

The Liberals are also arguing that Harper's plan to redress the so-called fiscal imbalance between the federal and provincial governments could bring the deficit to between $23.4 billion and $53.4 billion over the next five years.

Goodale, in a telephone interview with CTV.ca, contends that Harper has not tried to address how this agenda would be funded.

"That question Mr. Harper has not yet even attempted to answer, and that will have a huge bearing on the bottom line," he said. "Otherwise he is leading the premiers down the garden path, implying there is a solution but knowing privately that he can't afford that solution.

The Conservatives were quick to refute Liberal claims. They released a letter of their own from the Conference Board of Canada, insisting they have the figures to back up their platform.They argued the party platform is fully affordable in each year from 2005 through to 2011.

"In summary, we found that the Conservative Party's economic platform is affordable in each fiscal year from 2005-2006 through 2010-2011," Paul Darby, the board's deputy chief economist is quoted as saying.

"In each year there is enough fiscal room to pay down at least $3 billion a year in debt, as in the (government's) fiscal plan."

The organization, which was given access to the entire Tory platform to conduct its analysis, also found that there is substantial surplus in the Conservative fiscal plan.

"Over the five-year forecast horizon to 2010-2011, the CBoC economic and fiscal outlook suggests that there remains $15.7 billion in unallocated fiscal room, over and above the annual debt payment, which provides further cushion to ensure that deficits do not occur due to adverse economic effects," Darby said.

Meanwhile Jack Layton was busy positioning himself as the champion of the working people and enlisted powerful union allies to his election cause. Layton held a big rally in B.C. Saturday to showcase the backing of some of the country's biggest labour organizations, such as the Canadian Union of Public Employees, the United Steelworkers and the Telecommunications Workers Union.

In a weekend interview with the Canadian Press, Stepen Harper suggested that a Tory minority government would be more stable than the one which just crumbled. One of Harper's principal advisers, should he win, is John Hamm, Nova Scotia's retiring Tory premier, who has used "a mixture of country charm and political cunning to survive 29 months in a minority position."

Harper again reached out to the NDP suggesting he could cooperate with them.

"I have a history, in terms of reuniting the (Canadian) Alliance and the Conservative party in being able to bring people together without asking people to sacrifice their most fundamental beliefs," Harper said.

"That's what you have to do in a minority Parliament. You do have to make compromises, but they can't be compromises that ask your own party or other parties to stand on their heads and swallow themselves whole."

His back against the wall as he enters the second round of debates, Paul Martin took some solace from a new Decima Research poll which indicates that uncommitted voters outside Quebec, who could determine the outcome of the close-fought federal election, were more likely to ultimately support the Liberals than the Conservatives.

The Decima Research online voter-tracking study found uncommitted voters in English Canada were less preoccupied than average with scandal and less likely to want change _ all of which gives the Liberals their first ray of hope.

Martin took less solace from a column by Sheila Copps in today's Sun entitled:

"Is that lifeless body Martin's campaign?"

Quote:

"The backdrop for the prime minister's health announcement last week said it all. An apparently lifeless patient on a gurney was laid out for a few stethoscope-clad doctors in white coats. The symbolism of that photo-op was not lost on anyone.

"The body Paul Martin was viewing (actually a med student posing for the cameras) had nothing to do with health care. It was a symbol of everything that has gone wrong with his campaign. No political organizer worth their salt would put the PM in such a position. Headgear, lifeless bodies and eating in front of cameras should be no-fly zones for politicians. (The Bloc's Gilles Duceppe is still remembered for appearing in a hairnet while touring a cheese factory.)

"But more important than the bad photo-op was the impression that Martin was nervously surveying his own demise. Here he was with one of the most important announcements of his post-Christmas relaunch and what we see is a body. What we hear is more talk about the RCMP investigating his government."

The Election: Day 40

Today Paul Martin announced a major initiative to clean up the St.Lawrence River and the Great Lakes. He promised that a Liberal government would invest $ one billion over 10 years to clean up major waterways in Ontario, Quebec and Manitoba. He said the program would tackle toxic hot spots along the St. Lawrence River and the Great Lakes.

The 10-year strategy includes:

$500 million to restore degraded and threatened areas across the entire region of the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence, including Montreal's Technoparc and Hamilton Harbour.


$100 million to identify and address current and growing ecological threats due to population growth, invasive alien species and new substances such as pharmaceuticals.


$200 million for scientific research to better understand the effects of human activity, alien species and climate change on these ecosystems.

$120 million to revitalize Lake Winnipeg and reduce pollutants such as nitrogen and phosphorus.

$80 million to establish the best practices for other key watersheds.

In the first recent glitch in his campaign, Stephen Harper had to clarify the Conservative tax cut proposals. Last night CBC ran a story quoting unnamed Conservative sources as saying that the Conservatives would rescind the tax cut passed by the Liberals in the days before theelection, which included reducing the tax rate for low income earners from 16% to 15%.

Harper confirmed on Saturday that his party would scrap the tax relief plan outlined in the Liberals' mini-budget last November. But he claimed that Canadians would end up with more savings.

Harper said Conservative tax breaks, including a reduction in the GST, would have a more significant impact on Canadian families than the Liberals' proposed tax cuts announced for low- and middle-income earners.

Harper also said the Conservatives would remove the capital gains tax on listed stock donations to charity if they were elected Jan. 23. The measure should make it easier for people to support the charities of their choice, he said.

Later Saturday Stephen Harper told reporters that the Conservative tax cuts would actually total about $49 billion, considerably more than the estimated impact of the Liberal measures.

Gilles Duceppe stepped up his attack on the Liberals over federal funds received by a federalist lobby group before the 1995 Quebec referendum. Martin accused the BQ of trying to create controversy out of long-resolved matter.

Gilles Duceppe's response was that Martin had said the same thing before the sponsorship scandal broke.

"They were saying that about the ad scam, so they're saying that now," Duceppe said.

"It's the same kind of attitude, denying the facts, trying to get away from the facts. I mean, this is typical of the Liberals. Period."

Duceppe has suggested Option Canada, under Martin adviser Claude Dauphin, may have used the some of the funds to pay for a huge federalist rally in Montreal just before the "no" side won the 1995 vote by a razor-thin margin.

Today ended a disastrous week for the Liberals. A new Ipsos Reid poll showed the Conservatives with a four point lead nationally. The poll indicated that, in the lead-up to the second leaders debate, the Tories are on the march to victory on January 23. The poll results were:

Tories (35%, +2 Points), Grits (31%, -1 Point), NDP (18%, Unchanged), Green (5%, Unchanged)
Bloc At 45% In Quebec (-7 Points) Versus Grits (23%, -3 Points) And Surging Tories (19%, +7 Points)

The Ipsos Seat Projection Model suggested a Tory minority as the likely outcome with the following seat projection: Conservatives 129-133 seats, Liberals 87-91, NDP 27-31, Bloc 56-60.

The fate of the election may now hang on the performance of the leaders in the second debates. If Harper can hold his own and come out looking Prime Ministerial and not get knocked off stride, then Martin will be between a rock and a hard place as election day rapidly approaches. This was the week he was going to seize the momentum. Instead, the exact opposite occurred and the Conservatives now clearly have the momentum.

The Election: Day 39 (Scandal plagues Liberals)

The Canadian Press carried a story tonight characterizing the RCMP as "Martin's undeclared but powerful campaign rival."

Quote:

"OTTAWA (CP) - Paul Martin could be forgiven for feeling these days as though he's running against an undeclared but powerful rival: the RCMP.

The Liberal leader's campaign promise of a $500-million package to help the elderly, the disabled and family caregivers was obscured Friday by word police were looking into more allegations of mismanaged tax dollars in Quebec.

While Conservative rival Stephen Harper was detailing plans for child care and Jack Layton described the NDP version of a gun-crime crackdown, Martin found himself confronted with the latest whiff of scandal to plague his flagging campaign.

Martin's daily news conference was dominated by questions about a published report that the RCMP is looking into a controversial grant.

Last month, police interviewed two officials at the Department of Canadian Heritage about the expenditure, which went out to a little-known group called Option Canada, which has since disbanded.

The questions were focused on the distribution of about $300,000 of the total grant.

......

Both Layton and Harper welcomed the chance to hammer home the message that Martin's struggling Liberals are synonymous with scandal.

"If the Liberals are re-elected, this is what Canadians can look forward to, a government pre-occupied with ongoing scandals, corruption and police investigations," Harper said in Bolton, just northeast of Toronto.

"They have to be dragged kicking and screaming and protesting into accepting that anything wrong could possibly have been done," said Layton." "


Meanwhile the Captains Quarters blog explained why the RCMP got interested in cold case.

Quote:

"One of the questions regarding the sudden re-emergence of the Options Canada scandal is what suddenly prompted the RCMP to take another look for the missing $4.8 million. We assumed that the upcoming release of a new book on the controversy over Liberal management of government money, The Secrets of Options Canada by separatist journalist Normand Lester, might have put pressure on them to at least review their data. A source within political and media circles, however, says that the RCMP received more information indirectly from Lester's own investigation.

The book, which will only publish in French, includes juicy details about the apparent theft of $300,000 by somebody who had acted as a bookkeeper to Options Canada, and an attempt to cover this up. Apparently, the bookkeeper and Options Canada signed a hush-hush agreement which allowed the bookkeeper to keep the money as long as he (or she) remained quiet about its origins. Lester got ahold of a copy of this agreement, and somehow, a copy of it was leaked back to Heritage Canada bureaucrats late last year. It was these bureaucrats who, in a CYA move, decided to call in the RCMP.

In other words, the thieves at the top needed to keep the thieves at the bottom from blowing the entire scam -- and foolishly committed an agreement to paper. If this bears out, it would almost certainly mean at least one criminal investigation for corruption, and perhaps another for conspiracy to obstruct justice."



Meanwhile today Jack Layton unveiled proposals to crack down on gun crime. He unveiled a tough-on-crime message Friday, proposing mandatory minimum sentences and a pledge to try 16-year-olds charged with gun offences as adults.

Layton's plan included:

A four-year minimum sentence for illegal possession and sale of restricted weapons such as handguns and automatics.
A four-year minimum sentence for importing illegal guns
Tougher border controls, including arming customs officers.
Supporting reverse-onus legislation for bail on all gun-related crimes and making sure bail conditions are strictly followed.
Layton said he would also change legislation so that young offenders 16 and over who are charged with gun offences are tried as adults.

For more details see the CBC

As Martin was peppered with questions about the latest RCMP investigation,Stephen Harper expressed disappointment in what he called yet another example of an investigation of the Liberals which casts federalism in a "terribly negative light."

"If the Liberals are re-elected, this is what Canadians can look forward to: a government preoccupied with ongoing scandals, corruption and police investigations," said Harper. "We need a government that will clean up those scandals and be able to focus not on damage control, but on the real priorities of ordinary working people and their families." See the CTV

ADSCAM has come back to haunt Martin big time. This time one of the individuals involved, Claude Dauphin, former President of Option Canada, was a close adviser to Martin. Martin is treading water as he attempts to make some headway in his stalled campaign. He tries to move forward by making some policy announcements but almost every day he is hit by new reminders of Liberal mismanagement and corruption.

Martin must be wondering every day, "What will I hit be with next?"

The Election: Day 38 (Tories clearly in lead)

All three parties except BQ made significant policy announcements today.

The Conservatives, now shown by several polls to clearly be in the lead, took a tough stance on law and order, one of the five priorities announed earlier in the week by Harper.

A new Conservative government would "completely overhaul" the criminal justice system by beefing up police forces across the country and by toughening up the sentences served by criminals, Harper said Thursday.

"The revolving door of criminal justice of this current government bears significant responsibility for the tide of gun, drug and gang crime plaguing our cities," Harper stated.

Harper said his government would impose mandatory minimum prison terms of between five and 10 years for major firearms offences, and a minimum sentence of five years for people convicted of possessing a loaded restricted or prohibited weapon, such as a handgun.

There would be no more conditional sentences, or so-called house arrest, for serious gun crimes, he said. The Conservatives would also put more police on the streets.

The Conservatives' platform also includes proposals to:

Shut down the federal gun registry.
Raise the age of consent to 16 from 14 years old to prevent the sexual exploitation of children.
Sentence anyone 14 years old convicted of a serious violent crime or repeat offence as an adult.
Re-establish the Canada Ports Police to combat drug smuggling.
Allow border guards to carry sidearms.
Expand the mandate of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service to allow it to spy overseas.

More details at the CBC

Paul Martin attempted to catch the votes of post-secondary students and their votes today. He announced that a Liberal government would pay half the tuition for students in their first and last years of post-secondary education.The so-called "50-50" plan would pay a maximum of $3,000 in each of those two years for students enrolled in a Canadian college or university.

Meanwhile Jack Layton took aim at both the Liberal and Conservative pledges to gaurantee maximum wait times for specified medical tests and procedures. Layton criticized the Liberal and Tory proposed guarantees, arguing that government should instead spend more money on training doctors and nurses to cut wait times. He announced that the NDP will set aside another $200 million a year to train health workers. Layton said that would fund the equivalent of another 16,000 nursing training spaces.

He also promised that the NDP would introduce a bill to stop federal money from going to provinces that allow for-profit, private health insurance.

In the broader context, new polls released over the past two days clearly show that the Conservatives have the momentum, with a lead of up to 6 points in an EKOS poll released today. The new EKOS poll done for the Toronto Star and La Presse shows the Conservatives leading the Liberals 36% to 30%. This supports a SES poll indicating Conservatives lead the Liberals 36% vs 33%. Tonight a Leger poll, done by Leger Marketing for The Canadian Press, had the Tories at 34 per cent and the Liberals at 32 per cent. The NDP stood at 16 per cent and the Bloc Quebecois at 11.

One significant feature of the recent polls is the Conservatives appear to be making significant inroads in Ontario and have doubled their support in quebec to the 20% range. The increase in Quebec appears to have come at the expense of the BQ. This raises the possibility that the Conservatives might gain 1-3 seats in Quebec. They may also help deny the BQ the magical 50+1% of the popular vote they are seeking.

On a final note, tonight the Globe and Mail broke a story about a possible new (old) scandal that might further ensnare the Liberals in the coming days.The RCMP is looking into a controversial $4.8-million grant that was awarded to a pro-Canada group at the time of the 1995 referendum on Quebec sovereignty. The Option Canada group was headed by Claude Dauphin,who worked in the late 1990s as an aide to Prime Minister Paul Martin, who was minister of finance at the time. The Option Canada "incident" is apparently the focus of an upcoming book by Quebec investigative journalist Normand Lester. No doubt we'll hear more about this in the days ahead.

Tories jump into clear lead

New EKOS poll done for the Toronto Star and La Presse shows the Conservatives leading the Liberals 36% to 30%. This supports SES poll indicating Conservatives lead Liberals 36% vs 33%. For full story go to the Star

Quote:

"Tories jump into clear lead
Jan. 5, 2006. 05:49 AM
SEAN GORDON
OTTAWA BUREAU


OTTAWA—The election campaign has taken a dramatic turn, with the opposition Conservatives jumping into their first real lead over the governing Liberals, a new poll shows.

The survey, conducted by EKOS Research Associates for the Star and La Presse, found that 36.2 per cent of decided voters say they will support the Conservatives, while 30.4 per cent favoured the Liberals.

The NDP is supported by 17.9 per cent of voters, while the Bloc is at 10.4 per cent nationally and the Green party is at 4.7 per cent.

If the numbers hold up, it would mean a Tory minority government.

However, the electorate is still volatile, with 40 per cent of respondents saying they could still change their minds.

Until now, polls have shown the Liberals in the lead or, more recently, the two parties in a virtual tie. The EKOS poll came on the same day an SES poll was released showing the Conservatives leading the Liberals 36 to 33 per cent.

The EKOS poll shows that an effective campaign by Conservative Leader Stephen Harper has combined with a renewed focus on Liberal ethics to reverse the position of the two parties.


Results for Ontario and Quebec are eye-catching. In Ontario, where the Liberals have always enjoyed a big lead, a real dogfight has now emerged, with the Liberals at 38.5 per cent support and the Tories at 35.3.

In Quebec, where Harper has spent an unusual amount of time, the two parties are in almost a dead heat with the Liberals at 21.9 per cent and the Conservatives at 20.2. The Bloc Québécois is well ahead at 43.8, but the increased Tory support has come at the Bloc's expense. The shift shows Quebec voters are eyeing a federalist alternative other than the Liberals.

The poll will be a dispiriting blow to the Liberals, who have to rally their troops for the final push to the Jan. 23 vote."

The party's over for Paul Martin and his Liberal Party

Further evidence for my post yesterday can be found on Bourque today

Quote:

"STICK A FORK IN MARTIN LIBS
Forget what Don Newman and Mike Duffy are glazing you over with, the election has not just begun, it's just about done. Get out the four-pronged eating implement, the party's over for Paul Martin and his Liberal Party. Bourque has learned that a cancerous malaise has infiltrated the highest echelons of his braintrust, a leadership increasingly desperate to gain traction in the waning weeks of the campaign. Senior Martin Libs are privately telling Bourque that "the game is over". Not even "mega-billion dollar policy Hail Maries", as one lifer put it, is buying goodwill from an increasingly cynical electorate. One key source, a Martin heavyweight in the Toronto financial community, surprised Bourque overnight with an email touting a potential post-Martin leadership candidate. "The writing's on the wall, Pierre, you were right, but (name omitted) is the real deal, you watch, his time is coming !" Further evidence of grave concern at the top is witnessed by a very well-placed operative inside the Liberal War Room who claims a certain degree of discord is beginning to permeate the front-line troops based on increasingly distressful poll results. "Pierre", noted one regional campaign kingpin who prefers to remain in the weeds, "the national campaign has stalled and HQ is not taking input from us, it's very frustrating !" Add to that, news from Tom Clark, CTV's top political observer, who told his eggs-and-bacon audience this morning that the Liberal campaign team has a mole who is leaking policy and platform information to the Conservatives and the media, something Bourque told Martin bullwark David Herle in an email three days ago. For skulduggery lovers, the plot thickens. For Martin Liberals, sadly, the plot sickens. "Only a miracle can save us", admitted one longtime Lib MP. One word of caution, Bourque admires the Liberals' incredible ability to fight back from the precipice. Herle and his key folks are heroic fighters, they have every quality needed to turn this thing around. As a well-known TV pundit put it to Bourque, "these guys haven't won as often as they have because they roll over when things get tough." Developing ..."