2006/01/16

The Election: Day 49 ( Conservative support solidifies)

The latest Strategic Counsel poll results, reported in today's Globe and Mail,show Conservatives entering the home stretch just shy of a majority. Similar results were revealed in an Ipsos Reid poll released tonight by Global National.

The Tories are gaining ground in the Greater Toronto Area. Support for the Liberals is now at 40 %, but the Conservatives are close at 37 %. The NDP is at 16 %. The Conservatives are dominant in the rest of Ontario, where they outpoll the Liberals 42 % to 28 %. The NDP is at 20 % and the Green Party at 9 %.

The Conservatives are also making gains on the Liberals in Montreal, inching up to within four percentage points of them. And support for the Conservatives is increasing in the rest of Quebec where they are polling at 32 % compared with 41 % for the Bloc Québécois and 12% for the Liberals. It looks increasingly certain that the Conservatives will win seats in Quebec, the only question is how many.

The only province where the Liberals seem to be holding on to their votes is British Columbia. The poll shows Conservative support has gone down from 44 % in the last polling period to 42 % in the latest poll. The Liberals have stayed at 31 %, while the NDP has increased its support to 22 % from 20 %.

British Columbia may well determine whether the Conservatives get a majority.

The national figures were as follows: Conservative 40%;Liberal 27%;NDP 16%;Bloc Quebecois 11%; Green Party 6%.

An Ipsos Reid poll conducted for CanWest/Global also indicates that the Tories have edged closer to a majority win. This poll shows Conservatives continuing to lead nationally with a 12-point lead over the Liberals (38 vs 26%. The Ipsos poll also shows the NDP rising one point to 19 %, and the Green Party holding steady at five %.

The Ipsos seat projection model shows that if a vote were held tomorrow, the Conservatives could secure 149-153 seats; the Liberals 64-68; the NDP 29-33; and the Bloc 57-61.

Meanwhile Jack Layton continued his hunt for disaffected Liberal voters, offering them his third option. "The Liberal party is going into the repair shop for a while to work through its ethical issues and to figure out what it’s about," Layton said. "They’re going to be busy thinking about themselves, not you."

Layton begged disaffected Liberals to “lend” him their votes while their party “regenerates."

“Vote for us just this once, in this election, so there is a strong voice in the next Parliament that is standing up for the priorities progressive people believe in,” he said.

Layton pointed out that the word "progressive" has been axed from the Conservative name for a reason.

Check out the NDP's Paul Martin credibility hunt . You could win a free trip to an exotic locale.

3 comments:

Winston said...

Why didn't you mention the problem with the Conservatives budget numbers? Two big items were missing from their calculations. If Martin's right, Harper will take us into deficit.

cardinal47 said...

Because I don't believe a word coming out of Martin's mouth. You should take the NDP's Paul Martin crediblity hunt.

Anonymous said...

It's getting too late for the Liberals to effectively try to use the "Hidden Agenda" scare tactic as they did last time. Reasons outlined here:

Hidden Agenda A Non-Factor