The Election: Day 53 (Conservative minority imminent)

A number of recent polls suggest the Conservatives have maintained a 9-12 point lead over the Liberals despite Paul Martin's desperate last-minute attempts to scare voters into voting for the Liberals. Here are the results available tonight:

CPAC-SES Jan 17-19: CP 35.5% Lib 29% NDP 18.8% BQ 11.1% GP 5.6
Ekos CP 37.4% Lib 27.3% NDP 20.8%, BQ 10.1%, GP 3.9%
Gregg Jan 17-18: CP 37% Lib 28% NDP 16% BQ 12% GP 7
Leger Jan 12-17: CP 38% Lib 29% Ndp 17% BQ 11% GP ?
Ipsos Reid: CP 38% Lib 26% NDP 19% BQ 11% GP 5%

These numbers indicate that the Conservatives will form a solid minority government as a result of the election. It appears they will make a breakthrough in Quebec and elect several members. The effect of the unanticipated Conservative surge in Quebec will be to deny the Bloc Quebecois the opportunity to break through the magical 50% barrier as seemed possible early in the campaign.

Will Jack Layton gain enough seats to be able to exert leverage over the Conservative minority government? Some projections suggest the NDP might get up to 30 seats or so.

In the last days of the campaign Paul Martin is painting Stephen Harper as an extreme social conservative and pleading for NDP supporters to bolt to the Liberals to block Harper. This is a replay of his campaigning in the last days of the previous election. That time it worked for him. This time the Conservative and NDP vote is holding steady.

Harper,after straying off message earlier in the week with his musings about the Senate,courts and public service, has returned to his central campaign theme, "Let's get rid of Liberal corruption. It's time for a change."

Jack Layton is concentrating his efforts in B.C. where the races are tight and he could pick up seats if voters tired of the Liberals but unwilling to embrace a Conservative government pick up his challenge to: "Lend us your votes."