The Election:Early Predictions

So now it's official. The Martin government has fallen and off to the races we go.What happens next is in our hands.

Bloggers are already hard at work on election predictions. I nearly fell off my chair when I read Cherniak's blog and read that he saw a Liberal majority as a possibility.(Jason, you must be smoking something stronger than pot to see a Liberal majority as a possibility:-))

A Liberal or a Conservative minority seems much more likely.The NDP will probably gain 10 to 15 seats (assuming that Liberal scare-mongering will not work to the same extent as last election). The BQ will probably gain some seats. It makes sense that the Conservatives will gain some seats. Why would they end up with fewer seats than last time? This adds up to fewer seats for the Liberals. The key question is how many. Therein lies the answer of whether it's a Liberal or Conservative minority. I think the best the Liberals can expect is a reduced Liberal minority. The best the Conservatives can expect is a small Conservative minority. A small Conservative minority will spell the end for Martin as Liberal leader. A reduced Liberal minority will probably precipitate in due course the departure of both Martin and Harper. Since this outcome would be good for the country and for the rejuvenation of both the Liberals and Conservatives, I would find it palatable. A case can be made, however, that a small Conservative minority would better shake up the big red machine and tell the Liberals to clean up their act.

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