Prediction for next Canadian election

Prediction for next election:

Liberals retain minority with fewer seats
NDP gains some seats
Tories stall

Result: Liberals and Tories dump Martin and Harper before follow-up election
Good news: Maybe we'll get someone with vision to lead the country instead of Mr. Dithers and Mr. Icicle

OTTAWA—With an election looming ever closer, public support for Paul Martin's Liberals remains mired in minority government territory, according to a new Toronto Star poll.

The struggle for a Liberal majority will be more difficult because of the surprising strength of the NDP, the poll, conducted for the Star by EKOS Research, shows. It's the New Democrats, in fact, who appear to be reaping the most gains since the last election, with 21 per cent support across the country.

That's a good five-plus percentage points above their 2004 election results, with the NDP neck-and-neck with the Liberals for support in B.C., and well above the Liberals in the Prairies. Moreover, 13 per cent of former Liberal voters and 5 per cent of former Tory voters say they've moved to the NDP.

Country-wide, the governing Liberals stand at just 33 per cent support, well below the 40-per-cent threshold they need to even hope for a majority government, yet just a few percentage points lower than the 36.7 per cent support they won in the last election. About 68 per cent who voted Liberal in the last election said they intend to vote that same way next time.

Nationally, the Conservatives are stuck at 28 per cent, roughly the same as the support level they had in the 2004 election.

A full 87 per cent of Tory voters from 2004 are sticking with their party, EKOS found

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