The Election: Day 56 (Conservative minority)

As predicted by the polls the Conservatives gained enough seats tonight to form a minority government. However,the margin of victory was much less than most polls indicated. Most recent polls indicated a likely spread of 10-12%.

At midnight the results were as follows:

CP 125 Lib 102 NDP 30 BQ 50 Ind 1

The Conservatives will have a plurality of 20+ seats, enough to give them the right to form a government but fewer than Paul Martin had in the last Parliament. The NDP made significant gains.

In looking at the percentage vote by party what is amazing is the accuracy of the most recent CPAC-SES poll posted yesterday on this site. Below is a comparison of the SES poll with the actual results as reported by CBC TV at midnight January 23rd.

CPAC-SES Jan 20-22: CP 36.4% Lib 30.1% NDP 17.4% BQ 10.6% GP 5.6%

Results Jan 23 CP 36.50%LIB 30.10%NDP 17.36%BQ 10.48%GP 5.03%


The SES poll predicted the percentage vote with uncanny accuracy.

Paul Martin conceded defeat and, while doing so, announced that he would not lead the Liberal party into another election.

These results, and Martin's announcement, set the scene for a fiery Parliament and an exciting battle to renew the Liberal party. It is unlikely that any party will wish to precipitate an early election.

The new Prime Minister will face enormous challenges in making this new Parliament work. I would expect it to last two years unless the Conservatives see an opportunity to secure a majority by a return to the polls in the interim.