Tories jump into clear lead

New EKOS poll done for the Toronto Star and La Presse shows the Conservatives leading the Liberals 36% to 30%. This supports SES poll indicating Conservatives lead Liberals 36% vs 33%. For full story go to the Star

Quote:

"Tories jump into clear lead
Jan. 5, 2006. 05:49 AM
SEAN GORDON
OTTAWA BUREAU


OTTAWA—The election campaign has taken a dramatic turn, with the opposition Conservatives jumping into their first real lead over the governing Liberals, a new poll shows.

The survey, conducted by EKOS Research Associates for the Star and La Presse, found that 36.2 per cent of decided voters say they will support the Conservatives, while 30.4 per cent favoured the Liberals.

The NDP is supported by 17.9 per cent of voters, while the Bloc is at 10.4 per cent nationally and the Green party is at 4.7 per cent.

If the numbers hold up, it would mean a Tory minority government.

However, the electorate is still volatile, with 40 per cent of respondents saying they could still change their minds.

Until now, polls have shown the Liberals in the lead or, more recently, the two parties in a virtual tie. The EKOS poll came on the same day an SES poll was released showing the Conservatives leading the Liberals 36 to 33 per cent.

The EKOS poll shows that an effective campaign by Conservative Leader Stephen Harper has combined with a renewed focus on Liberal ethics to reverse the position of the two parties.


Results for Ontario and Quebec are eye-catching. In Ontario, where the Liberals have always enjoyed a big lead, a real dogfight has now emerged, with the Liberals at 38.5 per cent support and the Tories at 35.3.

In Quebec, where Harper has spent an unusual amount of time, the two parties are in almost a dead heat with the Liberals at 21.9 per cent and the Conservatives at 20.2. The Bloc Québécois is well ahead at 43.8, but the increased Tory support has come at the Bloc's expense. The shift shows Quebec voters are eyeing a federalist alternative other than the Liberals.

The poll will be a dispiriting blow to the Liberals, who have to rally their troops for the final push to the Jan. 23 vote."