Why Hillary will lose

Alan Abramowitz at RealClearPolitics.com presents a detailed and interesting set of projections on the likely outcome of the Democratic nomination battle. He projects that Barack Obama will still have a lead of 153 pledged delegates and 107 total delegates at the end of the primary season. Assuming that there are no switches among the superdelegates who have already endorsed a candidate, this means that in order to make up a deficit of 107 delegates, Hillary Clinton would have to win the support of 66 percent of the 349 uncommitted superdelegates. He points out that this would require a substantial improvement on the 55 percent support level that she currently enjoys among superdelegates who have made an endorsement. An interesting footnote is that that 53 percent of the remaining uncommitted superdelegates are from states that have supported or are expected to support Barack Obama while only 42 percent are from states that have supported or are expected to support Hillary Clinton.

This analysis indicates that Hillary's chances of winning the nomination are slim to non-existent.
For details, go to:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/04/unpledged_delegate_projections.html

Another Day, Another Poll

If you didn't like the April 1st poll showing the Tories with a 10 per cent lead, here's another one more in line with the majority of recent polls showing the two major parties in a dead heat. The moral of the story is: if you don't like today's polls, wait for tomorrow's.

The latest Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey suggests the Conservatives and Liberals remain in a virtual deadlock in public support.The Tories have 32 per cent support, with the Liberals at 30 per cent, which is within the survey’s margin of error.

Quebec/"The fruit is not ripe"

Apparently Jean-Pierre Blackburn was busy today trying to swallow his words from yesterday. Having indicated that a Conservative majority would open the Pandora's Box of constitutional change and satisfy Quebec's historical demands, he was busy backtracking today. Today he said:

""I think everyone can see the fruit is not ripe at this stage.As Quebecers, we can all hope to see the day when all these measures are part of the Canadian Constitution. However, to do it you need the will of the provinces, you need the right circumstances to head in that direction."

As Macleans so cleverly put it: "He did not say whether the fruit would be ripe if the Conservatives won a majority government."

Another Conservative Quebec MP, Transport Minister Lawrence Cannon attempted to slam the door shut: "There is absolutely no appetite to open the Constitution and to have any amendments to the Constitution."

But the horse is out of the barn. The fruit is rotten. The only question is: can the Liberals ride it smoothly to reverse their sagging fortunes?

http://www.macleans.ca/article.jsp?content=n0402119A

Harper's Tories Pandering to Quebec

According to the Globe and Mail, the Harper government is telling Quebecers that if the Conservatives win a majority in the next election, they will look to reopen the Constitution and give more meaning to their recognition of Quebeckers as a nation. Jean-Pierre Blackburn linked satisfying“Quebec's historical demands'' to the possibility of the Conservatives winning 30 to 40 seats in Quebec, up from the current 11. Blackburn indicated that the Conservatives will launch further constitutional talks with the provinces if the Conservatives form a majority. According to a recent poll the Conservatives and the Bloc are neck and neck, at 29 per cent and 30 per cent, respectively in Quebec.

It appears that Harper's Conservatives are prepared to sell their principles (assuming they have some) for the sake of stealing some nationalist seats from the BQ in the next election in the hope of securing a majority. How will this go down in the Conservative/Reform heartland out west? If I were a Liberal stategist, I'd be arranging for someone (not Dion) to give great prominence to Blackburn's comments in Saskatechewan, Alberta and British Columbia. Why let Harper get away with this dumb move without subjecting it to the cold light of day?

Have they forgotten the Kim Campbell debacle after Mulroney's attempts to buy Quebec off through Meech Lake and later Charlottetown? Maybe there's still some hope for the Liberals after all.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080402.wquebec02/BNStory/National/?cid=al_gam_nletter_newsUp

Is Dion on the ropes?

According to a new Toronto Star/Angus Reid Poll, Stephane Dion's voter approval rating stands at only 11 per cent, and the Tory party has a 10-point lead. The party standings were:

Conservatives 36%
Liberals 26%
NDP 18%
Green 9%
Bloc Quebecois 9%

Apparently 57 % disapprove of Dion's performance. And Canadians continue to express doubts about Harper as prime minister. Harper's approval rating is only 33 %

Dion seems headed for the abyss. Don't be surprised if Harper concocts some excuse to provoke an election to capitalize Dion's sagging fortunes.

Note: Other recent polls have shown the two parties virtually tied.

Liberals in freefall in Quebec

According to CTV, a new poll paints a devastating picture of a Liberal party completely reduced to a rump in Quebec if an election were held today. The Bloc Quebecois, which has been the province's dominant party, is down to 30 per cent support. The Tories are nipping at the BQ's heels with 29 per cent. The Liberals have only 20 per cent support, and the NDP are at 15 per cent. Among francophones, the breakdown was as follows:
Bloc: 35 per cent
Tories: 30 per cent
Liberals, NDP: Tied at 15 per cent



The pundits were quick to pronounce Dion's leadership dead. For details see:



http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20080330/libs_dion_080330/20080330?hub=TopStories



These results give reason for despair.

The likely outcome of any election now is another, perhaps strenghthened, Conservative minority. I don't think Harper can make any significant inroads in Ontario notwithstanding speculation to that effect by Mulroney's former toadie, Ian MacDonald.

The Liberals have remained tied with the Conservatives in most recent polls despite the Dion millstone. Therefore, they might as well pull the plug and get on with it. The only alternative is to somehow persuade Dion to graciously vacate the leadership but who will bell the cat and make this happen smoothly. Meanwhile two of the leading candidates to succeed him have different timetables. Ignatieff is eager to get on with it; Bob Rae wants to stall to gain time to build his profile and strenghthen his chances against Ignatieff.

Does Dion face ouster as party leader?

Sun Media reported today ( http://www.ottawasun.com/News/National/2008/03/26/pf-5103291.html ) that Stephane Dion is facing a revolt in Quebec which you could lead to his ouster. Apparently former Liberal candidate Pierre-Luc Bellerose, who ran for the party in Joliette, northeast of Montreal, said dissatisfied members will begin the process to revoke Dion's party membership if he doesn't quit as Liberal leader. Bellerose said he is convinced Dion has lost control over the party in Quebec and the organization is no longer following its leader, and claimed to have widespread support for his claims.

The dissidents are threatening to invoke Article 3.7.1 of the Quebec wing of the federal Liberal party's statutes and regulations to force him to resign. The provisions of this article give the Quebec wing the right to strip a party member of his membership.

Have the mighty Liberals fallen to a new low? While there are no doubt many Liberals who would like to see a new leader take the party into an election, it's hard to see them dumping their newly-elected leader before he has had the chance to lead the party into one election. In my view a public battle and ouster of Dion would be political suicide for the party.

The only way out of this situation would be if Dion took a personal decision to resign graciously as leader for greener pastures, without any bloodbath. Otherwise the Liberals had better unite behind him for one turn at the polls or spend a decade in the political wilderness. Where are the kingmakers like Keith Davey when you need them?

Hillary's Mistake

Hillary Clinton has for the past year been touting her vast experience and capability to step into the role of President on Day One. Recently she has cited as an example a trip she made to Bosnia years ago during which she dodged bullets and landed amid a fierce firefight. New video clips have come to light which show Hillary arriving in Bosnia under serene conditions. Clearly she fabricated the earlier version of her visit. Embellishing the truth is too kind a term for what was clearly a bald-faced lie.

See the YouTube video "Hillary Lies about Bosnia" at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IxVsdS887HA

How dumb does Flaherty think we are?

Jim Flaherty has been beating the drums in recent weeks predicting doom and gloom for the Ontario economy and urging the provincial government to cut business taxes. You could almost think he is still Finance Minister in Ontario under Mike Harris. For a chap who promised peace and harmony with the provinces, his recent behaviour is sharply at odds with that pledge.

Is he running to succeed John Tory? Or has Stephen Harper decided to pick a fight with Ontario because "all" Canadians reputedly love to hate Toronto and presumably by extension Ontario? One thing is certain the Flaherty attacks are not doing much to win favour for the federal Conservatives in Ontario in the next election. And, if Harper is attempting to pin the blame for the impending downturn in the Ontario economy on McGuinty and his Liberals and deflect attention from Harper's failure to provide any tangible aid to Ontario, that gambit will fail.

It's hard to see what Harper perceives he will gain from the recent assault on the provincial government. It appears he has written off any prospects of making gains in Ontarion in the next election.

Clinton/Obama ticket-yes or no?

Pundits have begun to speculate about the possibility that the two contenders for the Democratic nomination might join forces and offer a combined ticket for voters in November. In part this has been stimulated by polls which indicate that significant portions of Clinton and Obama supporters would cross over and vote for Republican candidate McCain if their candidate's bid for the Democratic nomination is foiled. Also driving this speculation is the likelihood that the superdelegates might have to decide the nominee and could well override the popular will, thereby splitting the party pre-election and helping McCain to be elected. It is widely conceded that Obama will arrive at the Convention with the most pledged delegates even if the spread is only 100 delegates or so.

David Olive argued in today's Star that a Clinton-Obama ticket would make perfect sense. He contends that Democratic voters have made their decision: They want both of them. He argues: "Apart from a candidate dropping out and taking one for the team, a merger is the Dems' only chance to avoid snatching defeat from the jaws of victory in the general election this fall."

At first blush his reasoning seems to make sense. It would seem that a combined ticket will win the election for the Democrats. The question is who would be the Presidential candidate and who the Vice-Presidential candidate. Earlier I suggested that the only way it would make sense for Obama to agree to a Clinton-led ticket would be if Hillary agreed to serve only one term, thus giving Obama a clear run at the Presidency in 4 years with the Clintons support.

However, upon reflection it has become clear that the Clintons are now fervently pushing this option. The reason is that Hillary will arrive at the Convention as the second-ranked candidate. If the superdelegates then pick her over Obama, she will lose a significant portion of the Obama supporters who would be infuriated by such an outcome. This would virtually guarantee McCain's election.

As one blogger put it, Vice-President Obama would end up taking out the Clintons' garbage in the White House. Given his current lead in the popular vote, most states won and most delegates, Obama would be foolish to make such a deal at this time.

This is a ploy by the Clintons to undercut Obama while he's still leading and the logical Presidential nominee. He can't trust the Clintons. They are masters at manipulation and cutthroat politics. Obama should continue the race to the end and see where it ends. He's young and will have another chance if the superdelegates blow it and pick Clinton. This is particularly relevant when you consider that McCain has pledged to serve only one term.

Now if Hillary is willing to make a deal to be the Vice-Presidential candidate then that might be an option worth considering. This would virtually guarantee the Democrats the White House. The downside is that President Obama would have to constantly watch his back.

The Clintons are already being put on the spot to explain why they have said that Obama is not qualified to be President but is now qualified to be Vice-President. Given that the Vice-President is only a heartbeat away from the Presidency, this is hard to rationalize. So their new spin is that's he's qualified but not as qualified as Hillary. Go figure!

Conservatives plan to use Senate to scuttle RESP bill

This is hilarious! The guys who want to abolish the Senate now want it to overrule the House of Commons! They've finally lost their marbles. Monty Python time.

Excerpt:

"The Conservative government wants the Senate to help it defeat a private member's bill that would make contributions to registered education savings plans tax deductible.'

Details here:

http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2008/03/07/mcteagueresp.html?ref=rss

Harper boxed in by RESP bill

Liberal MP Dan McTeague has pulled a fast one on the Harper Conservatives. His private member's bill that would allow parents to set aside up to $5,000 taxfree each year in a RESP made it through the Commons with the support of the three Opposition parties. It now goes to the Senate where it will undoubtedly be approved by the Liberal-dominated body. That will give it the force of law once the formalities are dealt with.

This will put the Harper government in an interesting conundrum. Today's story in the Globe and Mail lead with the following:

"OTTAWA — The Harper government vowed Thursday to kill legislation introduced by a Liberal MP and quietly passed by the House of Commons that would allow parents to contribute up to $5,000 a year to their children's education and deduct it from their income tax."

Not exactly an opportune position to be in for a government that favours tax cuts. Having squandered the surpluses left by the Liberals and given away a major source of revenue by reducing the GST by 2%, they are already in a precarious position for the coming year faced with a declining economy. (Incidentally I haven't heard anyone singing their praises for the GST reduction, have you?) So they say they will oppose a law passed by the Commons and (probably) the Senate, claiming poverty.

To do this they will have to play tricks by introducing a technical amendment to the budget (killing the RESP proposal) and proclaim it a confidence measure in order to force the Liberals to let it pass, thereby killing McTeague' initiative. But the Conservatives will end up with egg splattered all over their faces by killing what would be a popular measure.

The Liberals could do worse than defeat the Conservatives' attempt to kill this bill and take their chances on an election. With Harper still stinging from the Cadman affair and NAFTA-gate, the bloom might well be off the Harper rose.

NAFTA-gate,Cadman "bribe" entangle Harper government

Stephen Harper has been busy this week digging himself a deeper and deeper hole. First, the Cadman affair burst his budget bubble. The revelation that Dona Cadman, the widow of late MP Chuck Cadman, had stated, in a book awaiting release, that Chuck Cadman had told her that the Conservatives had offered him a million- dollar insurance policy to vote against the Martin government in May 2005 shocked the foundations of a government which came to office promising integrity and ethicical reform. This was subsequently confirmed by Cadman's daughter and son-in-law. The Opposition lost no time in pouncing, accusing Harper of countenancing a bribery attempt. (Cadman had turned the offer down.) Harper had been interviewed by the book's author and is reported to have acknowleged that two senior Conservatives met with Cadman and offered "financial considerations" in return for his vote.

Harper has vigorously denied the bribery accusations. But then he made a big mistake. His lawyers filed a notice of a Libel suit unless the Liberals apologized in Parliament and removed the alleged defamatory remarks from the party website. This was quickly interpreted as intimidation aimed at hiding the truth.

Then another bombshell exploded in Harper's face. This concerned a leak of a private conversation between an Obama adviser and someone in the Canadian Consulate in Chicago. Obama and Clinton were involved in closely contested primaries in Ohio and Texas. In Ohio the economy and lost jobs were a big issue. Both candidates talked tough about NAFTA and renegotiating NAFTA if necessary to secure better safeguards for American workers. On Feb 8th an Obama adviser met with a Consulate official who later wrote a memo to embassy officials in which he stated that the Obama adviser had implied that Obama was indulging in political posturing and would not tamper with NAFTA. This report made its way to Ottawa.

Shortly thereafter CTV News reported the essence of the Consulate's report. The Canadian embassy denied it but CTV's reporter stated that a Canadian official had again confirmed the story. All hell broke loose both in the US and Canada. Media and the Clinton campaign seized on the leak to call into question Obama's integrity. Clinton claimed that Obama was saying one thing to the voters of Ohio and another to a foreign government. This was reinforced by the leak to the media of the memo in question. This cast doubts upon Obama's credibility. Clinton won Ohio by a comfortable margin, no doubt aided by these developments.

Back in Ottawa, the Opposition again pounced. Harper was forced to admit that this was a significant error and someone had acted improperly and possibly illegally and that he would launch an internal investigation. Today the Globe and Mail reported that the intial leak had come from the PM's Chief of Staff, Ian Brodie, at a pre-budget lockup. Others confirmed this. It is still not clear who later leaked the memo. Harper admitted that what had happened was a serious error that may have damaged the candidacy of Senator Obama. He promised to widen the investigation to include the PMO. Meanwhile the Opposition parties and many pundits were calling on the PM to fire his Chief of Staff. This time the government looks guilty of meddling in the US election campaign and the scandal appears to reach to the heart of the PM's nerve center at PMO.

Showdown on Tuesday March 4th

Obama and Clinton go head to head on Tuesday in Texas and Ohio, plus Rhode Island and Vermont. They are expected to split the two smaller states but the outcome in Texas and Ohio is uncertain and critical to the outcome of the Democratic nomination race. Polls show them tied in Texas and virtually tied in Ohio where Clinton has a slight lead.

Only weeks ago Clinton had large leads in both states but these have disappeared after Obama swept the Super Tuesday primaries and then piled up 11 wins in a row. Whether Hillary continues her candidacy hinges on the outcome of the vote in Texas and Ohio. If she loses either state she will have little choice but to fold her campaign and hail Obama as the Democratic nominee. No less an authority than Bill Clinton has stated that Hillary must win both states to stay in the race.

Even if Clinton gets most votes in Texas Obama could end up with more delegates because delegates in Texas will be determined both by the primary vote and by caucuses. Should Hillary secure the most delegates in both Texas and Ohio, she would still trail Obama in delegates and face an almost insurmountable challenge to win the nomination. And there could be a bitter and divisive battle en route to that outcome. This would put the Democrats on the defensive and allow McCain to build a lead before the Democratic candidate could take him on.

Dion blew his chances

Flaherty today presented a ho-hum "thin gruel" budget, a clear sign that Harper is in no hurry to go to the polls, notwithstanding the fevered rhetoric of recent weeks. Harper's appetite for an election diminished when he realized that the parties were tied in terms of voter support and the best the Cons could hope for was another minority.



Harper gambled on Afhanistan by talking tough but then compromised on the Liberal amendment. When Dion allowed the Ignatieff and Rae forces to persuade him that he should not go to the electorate on the Afghanistan issue, he lost a major wedge issue on which public opinion favoured the previous Liberal position.



With respect to the budget it clearly was not designed to support a Conservative election campaign. There is no poison bill to force the Liberals to vote to bring down the government. And according to Dion's post-budget statement the Liberals have decided not to provoke an election at this time.



So Dion is left dangling in the wind. The public perception of him as weak and vacillating can only be enhanced by his recent decisions. He may well have blown his only chance to secure a minority government and helped ensure that Harper secures another minority when he finally goes to the polls. Should that occur, Dion will be swept aside and Ignatieff and Rae will tussle for the leadership.



I assume that the Ignatieff and Rae forces have been pivotal in these recent decisions. Certainly it's in Bob Rae's interest to get into the House via the impending by-election, where he can better position himself for a leadership campaign. And Ignatieff, given his stance on foreign policy issues, would not have wanted to campaign on a platform which involved pulling the troops out of Afghanistan in 2009, a platform which might well have led to a Liberal minority and strengthened Dion's position.



But, given the deteriorating state of the Ontario manufacturing industry and the lack of adequate provisions in the budget to address this, many Ontario Liberal MPs will have to hold their noses if the collective decision is to vote for the budget. If, on the other hand, the Liberals abstain (once again), how will they face Ontario voters come election time?

Dion should pull the plug on Harper

It's not going to get any better for Dion. Three out of four national polls this past week put the Liberals and the Conservatives in a virtual tie. Harper's gamble on a tightly managed government focused on the PM has failed. After two years in power Harper is no closer to a majority than on election night in 2006. Meanwhile Stephane Dion has to show some leadership by voting non-confidence in the budget if he is to ever have any hope of becoming PM.

If Dion listens to the Bob Rae faction who want Rae in the House to show his stuff before an election, he is only relinquishing his opportunity to secure a minority government.

The Nanos/SUN media poll released today is evidence enough for me. This shows the Liberals and Conservatives tied at 34%, as did another poll earlier in the week. The Strategic Counsel poll which showed the Conservatives with a 12-point lead and sent shivers through Liberal spines is the clear outlier in the four polls released over the past few days. The other three showed the two main parties in a dead heat. And Nanos called the last the last two federal elections to within a decimal point.

There's everything to lose and nothing to gain for Dion by dithering. The Liberals lost the last election because Martin dithered and dithered and....... The Liberals have a chance at a minority; the best the Conservatives can do is secure another minority. If Dion abstains on or supports the Conservative budget, this will confirm in the minds of most voters that he is afraid of an election.

So it's time to take the plunge. Vote NO, Stephane, and give us a chance to tell Harper what we think of his policies and style of governance. Bring on the election!

Minority government can be good government

Andrew Coyne at Macleans has an excellent column on how minority governments can exemplify parliamentary democracy at its best. He makes a compelling case.

http://www.macleans.ca/canada/opinions/article.jsp?content=20080220_111692_111692&page=2

General Hillier should be fired

General Rick Hillier has crossed the line. In the midst of a debate in the Canadian Parliament over Canada's continued role in Afghanistan, Hillier told an association of defence contractors today that prolonged debate is putting the lives of Canadian soldiers at risk. He implied that the suicide bombings in Kandahar this week occurred because the Taliban perceived a political vulnerability and chose to exploit it.

The Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition have been collaborating to forge a motion that would see Parliament vote to extend the mission with a clear deadline for exit and conditions for staying beyond the original exit date of February 2008.

Hillier's remarks go beyond the pale and represent a crass attempt by the leader of the Canadian military to terminate the Parliamentary debate. Has Hillier forgotten that we live in a democracy and that Parliament, not the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, determines the extent and nature of the commitment of Canadian forces to a foreign conflict.

It's time for the PM to fire Hillier and show the country who's in charge. If not, what's next? A coup d'etat in Ottawa?

Update: Three days, three polls

Today's Toronto Star reported the results of the latest Angus Reid poll, following on the heels of two other polls over the previous two days. According to Reid, voters are still not sold on Tories and appear unwilling to hand Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservatives a majority government. The poll showed the Conservatives with 34 per cent of the decided vote, the Liberals with 31 per cent, the New Democrats with 17, the Bloc Québécois with 9, and the Green party with 8. This is similar to the earlier poll which indicated the Liberals and Conservatives in a virtual tie. Both of these contrasted with the third which gave the Cons a 12-point lead and close to majority territory.

Reid said: "Two years later the report card is in – Stephen Harper you fail."

http://www.thestar.com/printArticle/305943

Reading the Political Entrails

Two recent polls of Canadians voting intentions, if an election were held today, offered widely conflicting views of the outcome. The headlines read:

Election would be Tory-Liberal dogfight, new poll suggests

Tories flirt with majority support, poll finds

The first showed the Liberals and the Conservatives in a virtual tie. The second showed the Conservatives with 39% support, 12 points ahead of the Liberals. The polls were done over the same days. Clearly both are not correct. The gamble for Stephane Dion is which is closest to the truth. If the Liberals are tied with the Conservatives, then Dion might well vote nonconfidence in the budget next week and take his chances on winning a minority. If the Conservatives have a 12-point lead, then it would be political suicide for Dion to go to the polls right now.

Presumably the parties are doing their own polling and have a clearer sense of voter intentions. Will the budget vote be showdown at the OK Corral or will Dion duck and run once again? Stay tuned!

If the Liberals abstain then Dion might as well resign and pass the reins to another leader.

Obama sweeps Clinton in Potomac primaries

Obama continues his roll to the White House. Today he beat Clinton easily in the Potomac primaries. The people have spoken again. Obama's the man they want in the White House.

Obama handily beat Clinton to win the Democratic primaries in Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia. He won almost 75 per cent of the vote in D.C. and almost two thirds in Virginia, a state with a large population of military personnel and government workers that was once considered fertile political ground for Clinton.

Hillary has been boxed into a corner. She must win three upcoming primaries in Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania in order to regain momentum and remain competitive. Given that Obama has won seven states in a row, I'm betting that she cannot derail his momentum.

Obama has now piled up victories in 21 states and DC, while Clinton has won in just 12 states.
He has also won more overall votes than Clinton and more "pledged delegates" awarded through the primary process. Hillary is fast on the path to becoming an "also-ran".

Obama on the path to victory

Obama continues to pile up impressive victories in the Democratic primaries and caucuses. Following his impressive showing on Super Tuesday, Obama swept past Clinton in Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington and Maine on the weekend. Hillary is scrambling to block the Obama momentum, having replaced her campaign manager today. It seems likely now that Obama will arrive at the Convention with the most pledged delegates and Hillary's only hope will rest with the so-called superdelegates. If Obama has the most pledged delegates and the superdelegates put Hillary over the top, look out for a grassroots revolt.

I'm betting that it going's to be a tough fight but Obama is going to win the Democratic nomination and after that the Presidency.

Harper on the brink

Election talk is rampant again in Ottawa this week. PM Harper is perceived to be setting traps for Liberal Leader Stephane Dion with the motion to extend the Afghan combat mission to 2011 and a motion calling on the Senate to pass crime legislation by a House of Commons-set deadline. In addition there will be a vote on the budget.

Is Harper really hoping that Dion will vote nonconfidence and precipitate an election or is he hoping that Dion will bob and weave and evade an election? Speculation on Harper's motivations ranges widely. Some perceive that Harper would rather go to a vote now rather than later because his fortunes are on the ebb with an impending economic decline plus a potential shift to the left in the US. Others perceive that Harper is hoping to call Dion's bluff and that Dion will fold again rather than face the electorate. In the background are polls which show that, far from gaining, Harper is having difficulty staying even with the Liberals in the polls despite the widespread perception that Dion is a weak leader.

Time will tell whether Mr. Harper has read the tea leaves correctly.

The other view, and the one I favour, is that Harper has decided he has nothing to gain by waiting and perhaps something to gain by forcing an election now. This assumes that Harper has calculated that he can out-campaign Dion and make up lost ground on the election trail particularly if Dion stumbles as many pundits assume. The pitfall in this gamble is that, if Dion can run a steady even if not a brilliant campaign, Harper may well find himself out of office and facing a Liberal minority in a few months.

Why Hillary Won New Hampshire

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#NHDEM

This link is to the exit poll results at CNN broken down by sex, gender, age etc. The obvious conclusion from examining these results is that older women turned out in larger numbers to put Hillary over the top. They want the first female President.

It will be interesting to see what happens among black Democrats in the southern states.

Note that, despite this heavy tilt among older females who had a large turnout, Hillary won by only 2% over Obama according to this morning's numbers. Remember also that Hillary was heavily favoured to win New Hampshire prior to the Iowa results. The surge in the polls post-Iowa may have actually cost Obama victory in New Hampshire because it no doubt contributed to the heavy turnout of older female voters.

Bush Admits Economy Faces Challenges

I nearly split my sides laughing when I read this headline in the New York Times today. Here's a guy who took the US from a surplus when he took office to a situation where it is now hundreds of trillions in debt, numbers we can't even comprehend. And he "admits" that the economy "faces challenges". What Fantasy Land is he living in?

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/08/business/08bush.html?th=&emc=th&pagewanted=print

Is Baird damaging Conservative election prospects?

Chantal Hebert opines in the Toronto Star that John Baird did great damage in Bali to the Conservatives' election prospects. She said that Baird's performance "amounted to ripping a scab off a wound that had barely begun to heal". She concluded that "the Bali meeting was a multi-day communications disaster for the Harper regime. It set back a year of Conservative efforts to rebrand the party on climate change and confirmed the issue as the government's Achilles heel."

The Conservatives have been struggling for the past year to rebrand themselves as Conservatives with an environmental conscience. That has been shattered by the images of Baird aligning himself with the US and Japan to block progress in Bali and reinforced by TV footage showing him going out the back door to avoid young environmentalists.

Stephane Dion can only take some comfort from Baird's antics in Bali as the Conservatives align themselves even more closely with the outgoing Bush administration.

Afghan mission being reviewed

The Washington Post reports that the Bush White House is reviewing the status of the war in Afghanistan. They are said to be deeply concerned about the prospect of failure in Afghanistan. With no American trropds available, Bush officials are expected to continue pressing for more NATO troops to fight an insurgency that made this the most violent year since the Taliban and Al Qaeda were routed in December 2001.

According to Julianne Smith, director of the Europe Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies,the mission in Afghanistan is at risk of failure, as political support in European capitals is straining NATO’s ability to sustain, let alone expand its effort there.
“The mission in Afghanistan has been suffering from neglect on all sides,” she said.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/16/washington/16afghan.html?_r=1&th=&oref=slogin&emc=th&pagewanted=all

Harper a dinosaur on climate change

Stephen Harper pays lip service to the need to address climate change while fighting off any commitments by Canada to meet reduction targets. The latest example was his disgraceful performance at the CHOGM meeting in Africa. Harper personally blocked the adoption of a consensus statement that included a reference to targets and forced through a weaker version that committed no one to anything. By their actions of the past year Harper and his colleagues have in effect rescinded Canada's ratification of the Kyoto Protocol. Meanwhile Australians have tossed Harper's recent partner, PM John Howard, out of office. The new Australian PM has committed to ratify Kyoto and take real action on climate change. When Bush leaves office Harper will be isolated on this and many other issues, if he is still PM at that time. Dare we hope that Canadians will wake up and toss him out of office before then?

Will Americans control CanWest?

The foreign takeover of Canadian businesses continues at an accelerating pace. The tentacles of foreign control are now extending into Canadian media. CanWest is currently involved in merger discussions which could lead to American control of this Canadian media giant. As Thomas Walkon explains in today's Star:

"The essence of the deal is that CanWest, which owns Global Television and 11 daily newspapers across the country, wants to buy Alliance Atlantis, another media firm. But CanWest doesn't have the $2.3-billion needed. So it is proposing an arrangement with U.S. investment banker Goldman Sachs that would see the American firm put up the vast bulk of the money in return for 64 per cent of shares in a new, merged company."

Although CanWest is trying to pretend that Canadians would remain in control, this is clearly a specious argument. Should we be concerned? Indeed we should. Imagine if Fox had controlled CanWest during the Iraq war debates!

How the Liberals can regain power

Last week one poll indicated that Harper was in majority territory. Today a Strategic Counsel poll revealed that the Tories and Liberals are tied. Meanwhile Harper has been smacked in the face by the Mulroney debacle. After stating that he would appoint an independent person to look into the situation, Harper had to backtrack today and announce a full-scale judicial inquiry. Meanwhile Dion makes an ass of himself in QP by asking a question that Harper had already answered. It is now clear that Dion is a millstone around the Liberals' necks. The route back to power is for Dion to relinquish the leadership voluntarily. Then the Liberals need to annoint someone credible as leader by acclamation (Frank MacKenna perhaps?).

Have the police in this country gone nuts?

Recently there was widespread publicity and controversy over the tasering and death of a Polish man who was stranded in the arrivals area at the Vancouver Airport unable to speak English. A witness who videotaped the incident told the national media that within seconds of arriving on the scene officers decided to taser him and administered two jolts which killed him. This incident is under investigation. There have been others recently.

Today Kelowna RCMP used a Taser on a 68-year-old man in a parking dispute.

Clearly the use of Tasers by police in this country is completely out of control. When will they wake up and realize that Tasers are not toys to be used with reckless abandon. Maybe the law-and-order forces in the Harper government should wake up and ban the use of these lethal weapons by police forces in this country.

Harper eyes the Thanksgiving turkey

Jim Travers in a column in the Star opines that the PM sees an opportunity for easy majority win. http://www.thestar.com:80/article/264261 He speculates that Harper sees in Stéphane Dion what Chrétien saw in Stockwell Day: an opportunity for an easy victory and, yes, a majority. Apparently Harper sees that the soft underbelly of the Liberals is exposed and ripe for an assault. Hence, his baiting of the trap for the Liberals in the fall session while he says publicly he doesn't want an election and expects only a minority. He sees Dion as a turkey ripe for the plucking.

Hillier approval rating low

The Globe and Mail's online poll recently asked:

Do you think Canada's Chief of Defence Staff, General Rick Hillier, is doing a good job?

76% of the respondents disapproved of the General's performance. That speaks volumes about the public's response to Hillier's antics in upstaging our elected representatives. Let's hope that the PM soon comes to his senses and ends Hillier's tenure as CDS, as reported by CTV this past week.

Yes
24% 5880 votes

No
76% 18817 votes

Albertans finally wake up to oil company greed

According to a recent poll, an overwhelming majority of Albertans -- 88 per cent -- believe they are not getting their "fair share" from oil and gas royalties, and two-thirds want Stelmach to fully adopt the contents of a review panel report that has the major oil companies royally pissed. The majority of Albertans want oil royalties increased substantially. The oil companies are fighting back but it seems that Albertans have finally waken up to the rip-off the oil companies have been getting away with for years.

Hillier's Day of reckoning Looms

CTV News reported tonight that the Harper government plans to replace Gen. Rick Hillier as chief of defence staff when his three-year term expires in February. Hillier is widely perceived to have undermined former Defence Minister Gordon O'Connor. He also tend to upstage his politiocal bosses all the time.

In a democracy the military are servants of our elected representatives. Hillier forgot this so it is only appropriate that he be turfed at the end of his current term.

Will King Danny sweep the province?

I just returned from a week in Newfoundland. It happened to be the first week of the NL election campaign. In NL Danny is referred to as King. His popularity ratings pre-election were in the 80+ range. Given his personal popularity, pundits have been predicting a clean sweep of the provincial seats by Williams Conservatives. While there is little doubt that Danny will increase the number of Conservative seats, my impression is that he will not achieve a clean sweep. In rural Newfoundland, the traditional Liberal heartland there is still a perception that the economic boom of recent years has benefited primarily St. John's and the surrounding Avalon Peninsula but not the outports. There has been an increasing outmigration of rural Newfoundlanders to Alberta, particularly Fort MacMurray and jobs in developing the tar sands. Liberal Leader Gerry Reid is waging an uphill fight against the Williams juggernault, in particular accusing Williams of ignoring the fishery. It appears likely that reid and a few of his colleagues will hold their seats to provide some opposition to King Danny.

Ignatieff positioning himself for Dion's fall

Ignatieff positioning himself for Dion's fall

Los Angeles Times: Finders keepers in the Arctic?

Los Angeles Times: Finders keepers in the Arctic?

TheStar.com - comment - Ignatieff's tardy regret

TheStar.com - comment - Ignatieff's tardy regret

TheStar.com - News - Solidarity in cyberspace? Bloggers eye labour union

TheStar.com - News - Solidarity in cyberspace? Bloggers eye labour union

Canada lags in waiting times

A new study indicates that Canada is falling behind other leading Commonwealth countries in addressing waiting times for healthcare despite throwing gobs of money at the problem. The study compared waiting-time reduction strategies in five Commonwealth nations: Australia, Canada, England, New Zealand and Wales. The research indicated that England has done the best job of reducing waiting times. It set a maximum waiting time of 18 weeks - from referral from a general practitioner, through to treatment for a wide range of surgical procedures. In Canada the feds and the provinces have a 5.5-billion agreement vowing "to achieve meaningful reductions in wait times" in five priority areas - joint replacement, cardiac care, cancer, cataracts and diagnostic imaging. But there are no firm targets and most provinces do not even agree on the definition of a waiting time.

Harper in tie with Liberals:Cons stalled

Latest Strategic Counsel poll of party support shows Haper and the Conservatives have dropped to low low 30s in popular support and are now tied with Liberals at 31%. The poll revealed that discomfort with Harper's Conservatives is deepening among women, francophones and wealthier Canadians. Part of this is explained by deepening concern about Canadian casualties in Afghanistan. Harper is paying now for his pugnacious stance on the Afghanistan war and his alliance with Bush's policies. In recent days he has begun to acknowledge that the nature of the Canadian commitment could change in February 2009. Whether that will affect voters' perceptions remains to be seen. In any event the environment and healthcare outrank terrorism as priority concerns among Canadians. And the Conservatives are not exactly shining on either of these files.

Hillier blocks release of detainee info

Why is General Rick Hillier preventing the release of detainee information under Access to Information Act? The Globe and Mail reports that the office of General Hillier has halted the release of any documents relating to detainees captured in Afghanistan under the federal Access to Information Act, claiming that disclosure of any such information could endanger Canadian troops. Apparently the flow of documents about detainees has virtually dried up and the department has summarily rejected requests for the same kind of documents it released earlier.

What is General Hillier trying to hide? I thought Canadians were fighting and dying in Afghanistan to preserve freedom. This is rather ironic in light of this denial of the basic right to freedom of information here in Canada.

Madonna Live Earth video (Hey You)

Madonna gave a tremendous performance at the London Live Earth concert. Perhaps the best was Hey You. Here's the video from You Tube

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DeRZL12SFJk

Washington Post slams Live Earth London concert

I spent much of yesterday watching the telecasts/internet live coverage of Live Earth concerts around the globe. Thanks to CTV we got telecast excerpts from most of the concerts. In general I was impressed with this awareness raising exercise.

This morning I was surprised to read a rather snide attack on the Live Earth London concert in the Washington Post/Live Earth London's Glacial Pacing.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/07/07/AR2007070701201.html?referrer=email

The reporter draws attention to the carbon output of the Live Earth concerts;

"John Buckley of Carbon Footprint, an organization that helps companies reduce their carbon dioxide emissions, said Saturday that Live Earth will produce about 74,500 tons of the gas.
"We would have to plant 100,000 trees to offset the effect of Live Earth," he said, speaking by telephone. But, he added, "if you can reach 2 billion people and raise awareness, that's pretty fantastic."

But other quotes show the lack of awareness of the implications of climate change by some concert attendees. This just demonstrates the need for events like these.

Blogging Tips/Advertising

Engtech has a good piece on the pros and cons of advertising to attract attention to your blog.

http://internetducttape.com/2007/07/07/ways-to-advertise-your-blog-on-a-shoestring/

Bush Compares Iraq to US War of Independence

Speaking on July 4th George Bush compared the war in Iraq to the US War of Independence. Has he finally lost his marbles, assuming he once had some?

How does the occupation of Iraq by a foreign power and the overthrow of its government resemble the revolution by American patriots against a foreign despot, the King of England?

Can Harper be trusted to keep his word?

Based on his recent dealings regarding equalization and the Atlantic Accord, Stephen Harper cannot be trusted to keep his word. His approach to federal-provincial relations is akin to the behavior of a school-yard bully. Prior to the last election, Harper clearly promised to Newfoundland and Nova Scotia that he would maintain the agreement that Paul Martin had entered into with these provinces that ensured that they would not lose any benefits under equalization as a result of oil and gas revenues.

In his current budget Harper broke that promise. When challenged first by NL Premier Danny Williams and more recently by Nova Scotia Premier Rodney McDonald, Harper's response was: "Sue me". In today's Globe and Mail Jeffrey Simpson argues in favour of Harper's actions on the grounds that he made a stupid promise and hence was justified in breaking it.

I was extremely disappointed to read Simpson's comments. He seems to suffer from the central Canadian attitude: let the easterners eat cake. How can you excuse Harper's behavior on the grounds that he made a stupid promise? A promise made should be a promise kept. Harper's approach to federal/provincial relations, i.e. 'Sue me', is both childish and insulting. He may get his budget passed with the support of the BQ because of the pay-off to Quebec but he is alienating the Atlantic provinces and Sakatchewan. Harper's treatment of NL and Nova Scotia in particular is shameful. If Peter MacKay and Loyola Hearn had any cojones, they would have walked as Nova Scotia MP Bill Casey did two weeks ago.

The Iraq War and Privatization of Iraqui oil

U.S. presidential candidate Dennis Kuchinich maintains that the Iraq war has been about oil and that the U.S. should not be a party to any attempt, by multinational oil companies, to take over Iraq’s oil resources. J. Schenone has an interesting piece on Kuchinich's arguments.
Link

Kucinich argues that Bush's Iraq legislation would lead to the privatization of Iraq’s oil making it very difficult for the US to end the war any time in the near future. Amongst his concerns are several benchmarks set up by the current U.S. administration for the Iraqi government; one of which required passage of a hydrocarbon law that the Bush administration has chosen to hide. Kuchinich further emphasizes that while many in Washington are contemplating linking funding for the war in Iraq to the completion of these benchmarks, insistence on the passage of any legislation that included insistence on the passage of a hydrocarbon act places the U.S. in a position of promoting the privatization of Iraq’s oil.

The proposed legislation ensures that “chief executives of important related petroleum companies” be represented on a Federal Oil and Gas Council, which approves oil and gas contracts. Kuchinich states that “this is akin to allowing foreign oil companies to approve their own contracts.” It further ensures that the “Iraqi National Oil Company, which is the oil company of the people of Iraq, has no exclusive rights for the exploration, development, production, transportation, and marketing of oil and that they must compete against foreign oil companies with rules that benefit the foreign oil companies. According to Kuchinich, the legislation does give the Iraq National Oil Company temporary control of the oil pipelines and export terminals, but then it directs the Federal Oil and Gas Council, which is controlled by foreign oil companies, to turn these assets over to any entity with no further instructions.
In a further effort to ensure that big oil companies gain control of Iraqi oil this legislation provides for 35 years of exclusive control over oil fields for foreign oil companies. These companies are further protected by a provision that guarantees Iraqis preference for jobs and services only as long as they do not place extra costs or inconveniences on the foreign oil companies. Any disputes regarding any matter between the State of Iraq and any foreign investors have to be submitted for arbitration to an international court and will not be decided upon by an Iraqi court.

Kuchinich appears to have a good foundation for his belief that the Iraq War was based on oil greed.

Russian nuclear waste risk and Putin sabre rattling

The Norwegian environmental group Bellona reports that tanks of spent nuclear fuel in Russia's Arctic are leaking and risk setting off an uncontrolled chain reaction. Degradation of cement that encases nuclear waste tanks on the Kola peninsula has already allowed salt water to seep in. It is claimed that the salt water is mixing with radioactive rods in tanks at the Andreeva Bay facility, and could set off a chain reaction whose fall-out could spread across northern Europe in a worst-case scenario. This is a scenario stright out of the pages of Richard Rohmer's latest novel Ultimatum(http:/cardinal47reads.blogspot.com). Meanwhile Russian President Putin turns up the with the West in a little sabre rattling. In an interview with western journalists, Putin said that Russia intends to aim its missile systems at targets in Europe in retaliation for the U.S. decision to establish antimissile bases there.According to Putin, Russia sees itself being forced into this position because of the actions of the United States. In 2002, the Americans withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, and Washington has never signed the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe treaty, designed to end the Cold War military standoff.

Link

Name and Face Shape

Researchers have demostrated experimentally that people subconsciously expect face shapes to match the sound of a name. Students were asked to sketch the facial features of imaginary men with one of the following 15 names: Bob, Bill, Mark, Joe, Tim, John, Josh, Rick, Brian, Tom, Matt, Dan, Jason, Andy, and Justin. A second group of students were asked to name the men in the drawings.Ten out of 15 times, the students matched the faces and names correctly. As an example of facial stereotyping, it appears that 'Bob' is a round-sounding name, whereas 'Tim' is a thin, angular-sounding name.

Not smart, Stephen!

Looks like Harper failed to take note of my incisive analysis. He's off again to Afghanistan playing cozy with Karzai and pretending the Canadian role is all about humanitarianism. Tell that to the dead troops.Harper should be distancing himself from Afghanistan as quietly as he can. Instead, he's again publicly identifying himself with the war. Not smart, Stephen!

Will Stephen Harper be a one-term wonder?

Recent polls indicate that the Conservatives and the Liberals are virtually tied in popular support. After an initial surge in the spring around the time of the budget the Cons have dropped back to levels below what they achieved in the last election. While the Liberals have gained no momentum following the election of Stephane Dion, they have not plummeted further as some pundits predicted.

In the first six months of his minority government Stephen Harper was on a roll implementing his famous five priorities. He projected an aura of a knowledgeable decisive leader. Majority government seemed not only possible but probable after the next election. Contrast that with the last six months. Harper was blind-sided by the climate change issue. He bungled the first attempt to deal with it. Then he dumped Rona Ambrose and brought in a menacing pitbull, John Baird, formerly of the Harris government and widely regarded in Ontario as a heartless Minister. Baird's efforts on the climate change file have not advanced Harper's position one iota. If anything, they convey an impression of a government floundering to find its way.

The other big issue that has stuck to Harper and won't let go is Afghanistan. And Harper has made this his own file. O'Connor, Hillier and ilk do his bidding. Harper has seriously miscaculated the mood of the country. He has also alienated a lot of folks by calling anyone who questions the nature of our invovement in Afghanistan anti-patriotic or pro-Taliban. During the detainee debacle he began to look increasingly un-Prime Ministerial.

He has gone from a situation where everything was falling his way to one where the government appears to have lost its way and is at odds with the majority of Canadians on at least two major files. Moreover, both Harper and his Cabinet now come across as bullies. Who likes bullies?

Has Harper squandered his chances at a majority government? Is the best he can now hope for another minority? May even that be beyond his grasp? All things are possible of course and he may yet re-invent himself as a kindly leader with the best interests of all Canadians at heart. But don't count on it. Methinks a majority Harper government is increasingly unlikely and he will have to switch strategy to sustain a minority.

The Foreign Takeover of Canada

In a recent overview of foreign takeovers of Canadian companies David Olive pointed out that foreigners have snapped up nearly 600 Canadian firms since the start of 2006. He concludes that Canada is in industrial retreat. The recent bid for Alcan by Alcoa has brought home the message that Canadian assets and companies are for sale to the highest bidder. When even Canadian bankers are voicing concern we know the wolf is at the door.And so we head pell mell to branch plant status of the American colossus. Where is Pierre Trudeau when we need him?

Wolfowitz on verge of being fired?

Sources say the panel investigating Wolfowitz's actions re girlfriend has concluded that he breached ethics rules when he engineered a pay raise for his girlfriend. Committee is considering requesting that he resign. He appears before panel on Monday to explain/defend his actions. Meanwhile more than 40 members of the organization's anti-corruption team, formed to promote transparent government and closely identified with Wolfowitz, have declared that the controversy over his conduct is undermining their work. They called on the World Bank's board to take "clear and decisive actions to resolve this crisis," which they said was undermining the bank's "credibility and authority to engage" on the corruption issue.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/04/27/AR2007042702556_pf.html

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/04/27/news/wbank.php

Harper govt caught in web of lies

Stephen Harper's mad scramble to make sense out of the inexcusable would be funny if it weren't so dishonest. As he faces the first real crisis of his mandate he comes across as a bully who sees nothing wrong with blatantly lying to the Canadian people and their representatives. His iron-fisted rule has come unglued. Caught in a trap by suppressing the assessment of Canada's diplomats in Afghanistan that detainees are being tortured, Harper is sideswiped by Gordon O'Connor's sudden claim at the Foreign Affairs Committee that a new arrangement has been worked out with the Afghans. Neither O'Connor nor General Hillier had any details to provide. Then Harper tells the House that the new arrangement is in the process of being formalized. Facing a barrage of questions from the Opposition parties, Harper's only response is to resort to schoolyard bully tactics and attempt to bludgeon them into submission. The distinction between Harper and Dion is becoming clearer for voters: dishonesty and lack of integrity versus honesty and integrity. Stay tuned!

Are baby boomers less healthy than parents?

Contrary to popular perception, new evidence indicates that baby boomers are likely to be less healthy than their parents. According to the Washington Post, baby boomers "are more likely to report difficulty climbing stairs, getting up from a chair and doing other routine activities, as well as more chronic problems such as high cholesterol, blood pressure and diabetes." The trend seems to be that people are not as healthy as they approach retirement as they were in older generations.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/04/19/AR2007041902458_pf.html

America seen as a violent society

The tragic killings in Virginia have brought an outpouring of sympathy and condolences from around the world. As people shake their heads in bewilderment, trying to puzzle out what would prompt such a senseless act, others see this as another manifestation that the US is a violent society obsessed with the right to bear arms. The Washington Post carries a cross-section of reaction from around the world. It observes: "Officials, newspaper columnists and citizens around the world described the Virginia Tech massacre as the tragic reflection of an America that fosters violence at home and abroad, even as it attempts to dictate behavior to the rest of the world." Much of the foreign reaction centered on the proliferation of guns in the United States. Perhaps there is a lesson here for our own government as it moves to lighten restrictions on gun ownership.

Wolfowitz:Time to Resign

Paul Wolfowitz, major architect of the Iraq war and current President of the World Bank, is now mired in scandal and under increasing pressure to resign. The current uproar over his girlfriend, Shaha Riza, which began when details of her pay package were publicly revealed last month, calls into question Wolfowitz'z integrity and values. Riza was working at the World Bank when Wolfowitz left the Pentagon to become President in 2005. They were already involved in a romantic relationship. The Bank board ruled that "professional contact" between the two violated bank policy and instructed Wolfowitz to order the personnel department to arrange her departure and compensation.Wolfowitz directed Bank officials to agree to a proposal which included the following terms and conditions. Riza was to be "detailed to an outside institution of her choosing while retaining Bank salary and benefits." She was to receive an immediate raise with approximate annual increases of 8 percent.By 2010, when Wolfowitz's five-year term expired, she would reach a salary of $244,960, significantly above the maximum of $226,650 allowable for her pay grade. On her return to the bank, she would be automatically promoted to the level of senior country director; if her return were delayed another five years by a second Wolfowitz term, she would be elevated to the level of bank vice president.

After coming under public scrutiny for this inappropriate arrangement, Wolfowitz has publicly apologized but has refused to step down. Ironically, one of Wolfwitz's primary missions has been to demand that developing countries implement anti-corruption measures before receiving funding from the Bank.

On Sunday the Bank's most powerful oversight committee delivered an unusually public rebuke of his leadership, expressing “great concern” about the institution’s future and the need to preserve its credibility and staff morale. It's time for Wolfowitz to do the honourable thing and resign before he is fired.

Dion/May make pact

The Globe and Mail reports that Stephane Dion has decided not to run a Liberal candidate against Green Party Leader Elizabeth May in the next federal election. In return, it is rumoured that May will promise not to run a Green candidate against the Liberal leader and will essentially endorse Dion for prime minister.

How will Liberals and Green Party members react to this deal? Will they see it as a means of bolstering May's chances of taking MacKay's seat from him? No doubt it will improve the odds. Dion is a shoo-in in his seat anyway so it'll make no difference there. Will Greens resent May cosying up to the Liberals and the Liberals resent Dion making a pact with the Greens?

Harper has no shame

The Harper government has hired a former Quebec separatist cabinet minister who played a key role in the 1995 referendum campaign to investigate the polling contracts of the previous Liberal government. Daniel Paillé, the "independent adviser" hired to conduct the investigation, refused to say yesterday whether he is still a separatist.He has been hired to investigate all government practices regarding polls and other public opinion research from 1990 to 2003. He is to look at files, contracts, reports and records.

What kind of vindictive nonsense is this? Harper hires a separatist to look into the polling practices of the Chretien government. Does he have no confidence in his own ability to win election on his own merits? So he has to go digging under every stone to see whether there's any more dirt he can turn up? This would be laughable if it weren't so offensive.

Generals say "No" to Bush

Bush is desperately seeking someone to oversee the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.Reportedly this individual would have the power to issue directions to Defence, State and other agencies involved.Bush has approached three retired four-star generals who have rejected his offer. These were all all earlier supporters of his war initiatives. "The very fundamental issue is, they don't know where the hell they're going," said retired Marine Gen. John J. "Jack" Sheehan, a former top NATO commander who was among those rejecting the job.

Bush is going to need more than a new war Czar to save the US's bacon in Iraq.

Life in Iraq

The Washington Post has an interesting story on changing views in Iraq. Some who welcomed the toppling of Saddam Hussein in the spring of 2003 now wish for a return to the "law and order" of his regime. They tell the story of a man who was seen around the world taking a sledgehammer to the statue of Hussein. Four years later he's having second thoughts. "It achieved nothing", he now says."Now, we regret that Saddam Hussein is gone, no matter how much we hated him." Surprising sentiments? Perhaps not, given the chaos now prevailing in Iraq. http://http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/04/08/AR2007040801058_pf.html

Harper's Wait Times Scam

Stephen Harper has reached a new low in trying to hoodwink Canadians with his so-called success in securing wait time guarantees from the provinces.Harper claims to have fulfilled another of his five priorities. Well, this boat won't float. The deal does not come into effect until 2010, and provinces only have to promise timely treatment in one of several priority areas:
Cancer care
Hip and knee replacement
Cardiac care
Diagnostic imaging
Cataract surgeries

The Conservatives had promised in the last federal election campaign that they would ensure guarantees in all of the above areas. Their new agreement with the provinces proves to be a sham when you take a look at what the provinces have actually committed to. To take one example, Ontario is promising that by 2009, patients who cannot obtain cataract surgery within 182 days will be given the opportunity to receive treatment outside the province. However, the current average wait for cataract surgery in Ontario is 183 days -- just one day longer than the target. And it's a somewhat similar situation for other provinces. They have picked areas and targets which they already meet.

This falls far short of the comprehensive improvement in wait times that the Conservatives promised during the last election. As Andrew Coyne put it in the National Post, Harper has learned to lie shamelessly in the expectation that the public doesn't care. Well, here's hoping that voters do care and will express their frustration at the ballot box.

Cons pledge to stay in Afghanistan

The Conservative government has no intention of withdrawing Canadian troops from Afghanistan in 2009 when the current mandate from Parliament runs out. Defense Minister Gordon O'Connor stated today that:

"This government will support the mission — by our words and by our actions — until the progress in Afghanistan becomes irreversible."

"Afghanistan is a success story," he said.

What fantasy world is Mr. O'Connor living in? Next he'll be wanting to dispatch Canadian troops to Iraq.

Will Harper take the plunge?

Will Stephen Harper take the plunge and pull the plug on the current Parliament? Last week with two polls showing the Cons flirting with majority territory no doubt he was being tempted. The results of yesterday's Quebec election are being spun as favourable for Harper's Conservatives in Quebec but methinks the situation is more complicated than it appears. In any event a new Decima poll might throw some cold water on the election fever. This poll showed the Conservatives nationally at 35 per cent versus 31 for the Liberals, 13 per cent for the NDP and 10 per cent for the Green Party.The one positive for Harper was in Quebec where the Cons surpassed the Liberals for the first time in months, with 25 per cent compared with the the Bloc Quebecois at 34 per cent, the Liberals at 20 per cent, the Green Party at 10 per cent and the NDP at 5 per cent. But in Ontario, the Liberals remained ahead at 41 per cent to the Cons' 33 per cent.

Mr. Harper would be wise to think twice before precipitating an election over some contrived confidence vote. If he does, he may find himself again in minority territory.

Tories spending like drunken sailors

What happened to all this fiscal discipline that Stephen Harper promised us? The http://www.thestar.com/article/183221 reports that the Conservatives are on a spending spree with taxpayers' money, doling out about $10 billion in the past three months. Harper's surprise $1.5 billion announcement in Quebec last week for a national EcoTrust program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and air pollutants is new money, money Harper, on the eve of an expected Quebec election, said he would draw from the 2006-07 year-end surplus. When the Liberals were in power the Conservatives criticized such year-end spending as "March madness." The Canadian Taxpayers Federation says the government has failed to keep its promises on two counts: it is not reining in spending growth, and it is "spending down the surplus" just as the Liberals used to do.Apparently, program spending is growing at a rate of around 7.8 per cent, far in excess of the 3 % level the Conservatives promised in the election. More hypocrisy!

Is Hillier a public servant or a Conservative politician?

General Rick Hillier has described the decade of Liberal rule as the military's 'decade of darkness'. This is not the first time General Hillier has stumbled into the political domain. The fact that the Conservatives are giving the military all the toys they want doesn't justify Hillier's crossing of the line. The miltary was not the only public service to suffer cutbacks while the Liberals fought to cut the deficit and bring public expenditures under control. I worked in a government department where we had to implement a one-third reduction in staff and a substantial reduction in service.

General Hillier should stop his bootlicking of Stephen Harper and get on with his real job. If not, quit and run for the Conservatives in the next election. The last thing we need is a politicized military force in this country.

An Apology to Goodale

Last winter during the election campaign Ralph Goodale and the Liberals came under great attack when the RCMP Commissioner revealed that the RCMP had launched an investigation into possible leaks of a planned announcement concerning income trusts. Now the RCMP has exxonerated Goodale and the Liberals of any wrong-doing in this matter. Meanwhile the Conservatives are running ads in Quebec perpetrating the allegation that Goodale did something wrong. Goodale is owed an apology. I, like others, was guilty of prejudging Goodale and the Liberals on this matter while blogging on the election. I offer Mr. Goodale my modest apology. Stephen Harper should have the decency to apologize and to pull the ad now playing in Quebec.

Harper wants more law-and-order judges

PM Harper today admitted that he wants more law-and-order judges. That is why he is stacking the judicial appointee committes with Tory partisans. This is the guy who promised to clean up government.Imagine the right-wing agenda he would impose if Canadians fooolishly gave him a majority!

Patronage Thrives under Conservatives

Patronage is alive and well under the Harper Conservatives. Just a couple of weeks ago the Conservatives appointed former NL Finance Minister Loyola Sullivan as Ambassador of Fisheries Conservation, a position vacant since the mid-90s and formerly filled by foreign affairs officials with knowledge of fisheries matters.

The Globe and Mail> reports that the Conservative government has loaded the committees that determine who can become a judge, selecting a series of Tories including former politicians, aides to ministers, riding association officials and defeated candidates. Half -- at least 16 out of 33 -- of the people chosen by the federal justice minister as his nominees are conservative partisans.

This stinks to high heaven. The Cons intend to pack the courts with right-wing ideologues! And to think I voted for this bunch last January because they promised change. Fool me once, shame on you! Fool me twice, shame on me! Bring on the election soon, please.

Exxon's obscene profits

Exxon,the world's largest publicly owned oil company, announced the largest corporate profit ever, a near $40-billion (U.S.) windfall in 2006.This has sparked an angry backlash, since the announcement was made on the eve of the IPCC report blaming the use of fossil fuels for wreaking devastation on the planet.

Apparently Exxon has been using some of those obscene profits to fund initiatives to create skepticism about the impact of climate change and opposition to policies that would reduce the use of gasoline and other oil products.

Good corporate citizen,eh?

Tory ads show fear of Dion

The cat is out of the bag. The Conservative party intends to run TV attack ads against new Liberal leader Stephane Dion and will reveal tomorrow several ads attacking Dion's environmental credentials. Environment Minister John Baird, the crackie from Ottawa/Nepean, has been quoted as saying Dion didn't get it done in 10 years, referring to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Last I heard Dion was environment minister for only 18 months and was widely praised by environmentalists, especially for his leadership at the UN Climate Change summit in Montreal in December 2005.

Which leads to the question: why are the Tories running negative attack ads this early? Could it be that they are running scared of Dion's environmental credentials and reputation for personal integrity? Stalled in the polls, having made no gains in a year, do they think that the only way to maintain a minority is to try to tar and feather Dion? The last time the Tories tried that under Kim Campbell by smearing Chretien, they set the stage for Chretien's three successsive victories.

Harper facing non-confidence over Afghanistan

The opposition parties are threatening to pull the plug on the Tory minority government over its handling of the mission in Afghanistan.This could put Dion between "a rock and a hard place" or in the sweet spot, depending on how he plays it. If the Liberals united behind him to vote with the NDP to back the BQ motion, then Harper would be in a hell of a fight on the last issue he would want to fight an election on, foreign policy.Bring on the election!

Liberals make gains under Dion

Stephen Harper and his aides are no doubt now second-guessing their initial reaction to the selection of Stephane Dion as Liberal leader. Like the pundits they underestimated Dion's geeky manner. The author of the Clarity Act is now enjoying the first laugh as several polls put the Liberals well into the lead for the first time in many moons.

An EKOS Research Associates poll indicated the Liberals would be in striking distance of a majority government if an election were held now.

Here's how support broke down:

Liberals: 40.1 per cent
Conservatives: 33.5 per cent
NDP: 10.2 per cent
Bloc Quebecois: 8.2 per cent
Green Party: 7.6 per cent
EKOS conducted the polling on Dec. 5 and 6. Liberal leadership convention delegates selected Stephane Dion to be their party's leader on Dec. 2. This result showed the highest Liberal support in an EKOS poll since Jean Chretien stepped down as prime minister and party leader three years ago.

On Dec. 3, a Strategic Counsel poll conducted for CTV and The Globe and Mail showed the Liberals also well in the lead:

Liberals: 37 per cent
Conservatives: 31 per cent
NDP: 14 per cent
Bloc Quebecois: 11 per cent
Green Party: 7 per cent

Sure there is a honeymoon effect at work here. But the pundits miscalculated the reaction to Dion in Quebec and Ontario. Stephen Harper may not be so quick to rush into a spring election as originally anticipated by the media gurus.

Ignatieff's Big Mistake

Michael Ignatieff left the Quebec gathering of Liberals on the weekend feeling good. His supporters had shouted down the other leading candidates for the leadership.His Quebec base of support seemed strong. But that gathering may have sown the seeds of Ignatieff's ultimate downfall.Mr. Ignatieff and his organization made their mark by persuading the provincial wing to back his notion to recognize Quebec as a nation.The motion to recognize Quebec as a nation passed by a two-thirds majority. Ignatieff staked out his position: "I will speak for all those Quebeckers who say, 'Quebec is my nation, but Canada is my country,' " Ignatieff said in his opening statement.

This may help Ignatieff win the Liberal leadership on the grounds that he is best positioned to win support in Quebec. But when he gets to the broader arena of a federal election Ignatieff may find that he has won the battle only to lose the war. There is no willingness in English Canada to re-open the Constitution to give Quebec special status as a nation within the country, Canada. But that is what Ignatieff has promised. He will finding it exceedingly difficult to persuade Canadians that this file should be re-opened.And that, coupled with his foreign policy gaffes, will cost him the election should he win the leadership.

Harper's fatal error

On October 6th I speculated that the next government would be another minority government. Since then we've had new polls showing the leaderless Liberals tied with the Conservatives. And this week Harper's Conservatives have sealed their fate with middle-of-the-road Canadians like myself who voted Conservative last time. The charade purporting to be an environmental plan will alienate all Canadians concerned about environmental issue. Targets for 2050! Who can take this malarky seriously?

Harper cannot secure a majority or even maintain a minority by only appealing to hardcore rightwingers and yet his every action now seems to be aimed at solidifying his core base and and to hell with the rest. That way lies electoral defeat snatched from the jaws of victory.

Kudos to Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe who dismissed the Conservative environmental plan as “made in Alberta, written in Washington.”

The next election will give us another minority government

You heard it here first. The next federal election will produce another minority government.

Chantal Hebert has an excellent article in today's Star, arguing that the Bloc is likely etching for a spring election. She sets out the following reasons:

In a reversal of his earlier concern that another election would see the Conservatives soar in Quebec, Gilles Duceppe is now

"more concerned that a backlash against Conservative policies will send his supporters straight into the embrace of the next Liberal leader.

"This fall, Michael Ignatieff, Stéphane Dion and Bob Rae all have more presence in Quebec than Harper's ministers. None of the Quebec members of the Conservative cabinet has emerged as a strong voice. On the contrary, there are reasons to question their influence."

"If they had any of the latter, they would have stopped the minority government from proceeding with some of the cuts announced last week. If the Conservatives wanted a lot of bang for the relatively few bucks saved in the process, they certainly achieved their purpose. In Quebec, that bang was overwhelmingly negative."

"A government that had solid intelligence on Quebec would have known that literacy has been a big deal in the province since Jacques Demers, the last coach that brought the Stanley Cup to the Montreal Canadiens, wrote a book about life without basic reading and writing skills."

"It would have thought long and hard before eliminating the federal Courts Challenge Program that has allowed francophone minorities across Canada to assert their constitutional rights."

"Not so long ago, the program financed an Ontario legal battle to keep Montfort, the only French-language university hospital west of Quebec, open. It has not escaped attention in Quebec that the federal ministers who killed the program last week used to be part of the Ontario government that tried and failed to close down Montfort."

In other words Stephen Harper has screwed up his plans to build a majority in Quebec. According to Hebert's analysis, he will be extremely fortunate to hold the Quebec seats he currently has.

Meanwhile the Liberals continue their dance in search of a new leader. Will the leading candidate Michael Ignatieff (30% of elected delegates) make it to leader on the final ballot? Or will Rae or one of Dion or Kennedy break through to take the prize? Who knows?

Whichever of these gentlemen secures the Liberal crown, will he be able to beat back the Conservative hordes and snatch victory from the man who looks every inch a Prime minister and already acts as though he has a majority. Possible, but the Liberals are extremely unlikely to secure a majority.

So, Stephen Harper, by acting decisively and in accordance with his convictions, is eroding his chances of a majority. The Liberals, likely to choose either an untested academic who has spent most of his life outside Canada or the jaded former NDP Premier of Ontario, are unlikely to bounce back from Opposition status to a majority. Hence, my conclusion that another minority is amost inevitable. The colour of that minority government is another question. That will depend on what issues arise to trip up Harper between now the election.

Failure of Tsunami Reconstruction

18 months after the tsunami of 2004 in Southeast Asia triggered the biggest humanitarian response in history, recriminations are rife about failed reconstruction efforts. Canadians and the Canadian government gave generously to aid victims of the disaster. A new report indicates that much of that aid may have been wasted.Aid agencies are being accused of "planning poorly, raising unrealistic expectations and simply being incompetent".

According to the Associated Press, brand-new homes infested with termites are being torn down in Indonesia while families in India were put into shelters deemed of "poor quality" and "uninhabitable" because of the heat. Thousands of boats donated to fishermen in Indonesia and Sri Lanka sit idle because they are unseaworthy or too small. Only 23 percent of the $10.4 billion in disaster aid to the worst hit countries, Indonesia and Sri Lanka, has been spent, according to the United Nations, because so much of it is earmarked for long-term construction projects.

As the NGOs shifted to reconstruction, excessive amounts of money meant that spending decisions were often driven by "politics and funds, not assessment and needs," according to the Tsunami Evaluation Coalition or TEC, an independent body that includes over 40 humanitarian agencies and donors.

In a July report, TEC called the aid effort "a missed opportunity." It said there were too many inexperienced NGOs working in disaster zones, while seasoned agencies jumped into areas they knew nothing about -- Medecins Sans Frontieres Belgium built boats while Save the Children constructed houses.

The report also accused NGOs of leaving many survivors ignorant about their plans or failing to deliver promised aid. "A combination of arrogance and ignorance characterized how much of the aid community misled people," it said.

More on the Arar affair

Haroon Siddiqui has an excellent article in today's Star in which he sets out clearly what needs to be done in response to the O'Connor report. He suggests:

O'Connor, still on the job, should appeal Ottawa's decision to censor parts of his report. Given the government's low credibility and its conflict of interest, let the courts decide what should or should not be held back in the name of national security.

RCMP Commissioner Guiliano Zaccardelli should, or be made to, resign, as suggested even by Shirley Heafey, former RCMP complaints commissioner.

Ottawa ought to discipline those in the RCMP and at the Canadian embassy in Damascus who not only kept the government in the dark about the Arar case but also actively misled it and undermined its diplomatic efforts to free him. Such tactics belong in a banana republic, not a mature democracy.

Discipline those officials who leaked false information to malign Arar as one way to cover up their own misdeeds. (The Ottawa Citizen and CTV, which carried stories from that smear campaign, may want to conduct internal investigations and share the results with the public, the way The New York Times did for having relied in 2003 on official leaks about the weapons of mass destruction in Iraq).

Get the RCMP out of the business of investigating national security. That's the job of the spy agency, the Canadian Security Intelligence Service, created in 1985 after RCMP abuses in Quebec. Let CSIS gather and analyze intelligence and let the Mounties act on it through criminal investigations. Such specialization ensures professionalism, on the one hand, and better protection for law-abiding citizens, on the other.

Establish rules on how a citizen is put on a watch list.

Develop a protocol on how to better protect Canadians abroad. In Arar's case, our embassy in Damascus acted more as an apologist for the RCMP and CSIS, in cahoots with Syrian intelligence, than as a protector of a Canadian citizen in dire need of help.

Apologize to Arar, compensate him, give him a government job or help him find one, as O'Connor suggests. Honour his indefatigable wife, Monia Mazigh, for not only helping set him free but also forcing us all to look in the mirror.

I agree totally with his suggestions. In particular , as I mentioned last night, media like the Ottawa Citizen and Ms O'Neill, who allowed themselves to be used as tools for those in the RCMP who wished to smear Arar, should apologize for their role in this affair and take steps to ensure this does not happen again.

Zaccardelli should resign or be fired

In light of Justice O'Connor's report, which concluded that the RCMP passed along erroneous and damaging intelligence to the U.S. about Maher Arar,RCMP Commissioner Giuliano Zaccardelli should resign or be fired. Justice O'Connor found that it is very likely that the RCMP's erroneous intelligence about Mr. Arar led to his apprehension by the U.S. and deportation to Syria where he was tortured.

When Mr. Arar was eventually released the RCMP tried to hide the extent of its early involvement in the Arar case from senior federal officials, in order to head off a judicial inquiry. Certain RCMP officials leaked misleading information about Mr. Arar to the media to paint him in a bad light and cast doubt upon his story, thereby compounding their original bungling. Reporters like Juliet O'Neil of the Ottawa Citizen fell for the bait.

It is now clear that Mr.Arar has suffered greatly as a result of the RCMP's inappropriate provision of inaccurate allegations to the U.S. While Commissioner Zaccardelli may not have been personally involved in the original cock-up or the subsequent cover-up, nonetheless he is accountable for the actions of his employees and for not clearing up the mess once it became clear what they had done. Therefore, he should do the honourable thing and resign. If not, the government should fire him. And they should ensure that those who actually participated in the transmission of false information to the U.S. and subsequently covered it up are brought to justice.

In a democracy the police are not above the law.

Is B.C. violating Canada Health Act?

According to the Globe and Mail, patients willing to pay up to $1,400 to a private medical broker have been able to receive MRIs within days at one of British Columbia's largest public hospitals, while those sticking with the public health-care system languish for months on long waiting lists:

Heidi Bozek, who suffers from painful tumours on her knees and right hand, said this week that she paid the money to Timely Medical Alternatives Inc., after learning she faced a four-month wait for a publicly funded MRI.

A few days later, much to her surprise, she received a daytime MRI session lasting three hours at busy St. Paul's Hospital in downtown Vancouver.

"I couldn't quite understand how a public facility could be contracted out to a private organization for me to have my MRI," Ms. Bozek told reporters, adding that she had expected to be referred to a private clinic.

How does this square with the provisions of the Canada Health Act? Is B.C. in violation for allowing public facilities to be used for private gain? And what about the newly elected President of the Canadian Medical Association, Dr. Brian day, who is committed to advancing two-tier for-profit health care in Canada?

Afghanistan: Harper's Achilles Heel?

On July 20 I suggested that Afhanistan might well cost Harper his desired majority. In the weeks since then, as the body count has mounted, polls are increasingly confirming the majority of Canadians are uncomfortable with Canada's current involvement in full-scale battle in Afghan. Indeed, foreign policy appears to be the Achilles'Heel of Harper's plans to secure a majority.

The vaunted five priorities have been long forgotten by many Canadians. If an election were held today, as Chantal Hebert observed in the Star, Afghanistan would likely be the central issue and would deny Harper his majority. Indeed the potential loss of seats in Quebec and perhaps elsewhere might well cost him the government.

As Hebert observed:

While opposition to the deployment is highest in Quebec, unease over the gist of Conservative foreign policy is running rampant across the country.

The scenario of a federal election turning into a national referendum on the Afghan mission is one that the government's decision to rush a parliamentary vote on a two-year extension of the deployment last spring was supposed to pre-empt.

Back then, the political rationale for the early vote was to remove the issue from the radar of the next election by pushing the deadline for reconsidering Canada's commitment to Afghanistan off to 2009.

In hindsight, it is increasingly apparent the Prime Minister has outsmarted himself.

By committing quickly to an extension, Stephen Harper has foreclosed on the option to bring the troops home in February as had originally been planned, leaving him with no political exit strategy from the Afghan file.

Why are we in Afghanistan?

As Canadians are coping with the deaths and injury of further Canadian soldiers in Afghanistan,a new story out of there leads one to wonder: what in the h--- are we doing there anyway? Yesterday Afghanistan ordered hundreds of South Korean Christians to leave the country, accusing them of seeking to undermine its Islamic culture. As reported in the Star, the accusations come amid increasing intolerance and violence against foreign troops in Afghanistan, a crackdown in the capital on drinking and prostitution linked to foreign influences, and the recent announcement of a plan to reinstate the vice and virtues ministry, which enforced its harsh version of Islamic morality under the ousted Taliban regime. So I ask: are Canadian troops dying to prop up another version of the Taliban? Is it time to bring them home and force George Bush to deliver on his promise of democratic change?

Will Iraq split apart?

According to a confidential report,Britain's outgoing ambassador to Iraq,William Patey, warned the country is sliding toward civil war and is likely to divide eventually along ethnic lines. Civil war and a de facto division of Iraq among the ethnic factions seem likely. So much for Bush's predictions of a seamless transition to democracy!

With all the focus on the Israeli/Hezbollah conflict in recent in recent weeks, Iraq has been all but forgotten by the media. Meanwhile the carnage and drift to civil war continues.

Ignatieff re Middle East

Michael Ignatieff emerged from solitude today and pronounced on the Middle East conflict in an op-ed piece in the Globe and Mail. He criticized the Harper government's response to the Middle East crisis as "inadequate" and called for an immediate ceasefire. In doing so he joined other Liberal leadership candidates who had already called for a ceasefire.

Ignatieff's three-week silence is puzzling. This is not academe where you can take weeks or years to formulate your position. This is the real world in all its horror which calls for real leadership. While Harper's prompt support of Israel may yet prove unwise, at least the man is decisive. Which is more than we can say about Ignatieff's belated comments on a critical issue of the day.

The Middle East situation is perplexing. It has bedevilled world leaders for the past 60 years. A two-state solution is necessary but it is not obvious how we can achieve it given the irreconciable positions of the protaganists.